Opinion Poll by Polis, 7–12 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
HLAS–sociálna demokracia 0.0% 20.8% 19.3–22.3% 18.9–22.8% 18.6–23.2% 17.9–23.9%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 25.0% 18.7% 17.3–20.2% 16.9–20.6% 16.6–21.0% 16.0–21.7%
Sloboda a Solidarita 6.2% 12.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.5–13.6% 10.3–13.9% 9.7–14.6%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 9.2% 8.2–10.4% 8.0–10.7% 7.7–11.0% 7.3–11.6%
SME RODINA 8.2% 8.2% 7.3–9.3% 7.0–9.6% 6.8–9.9% 6.4–10.5%
SMER–sociálna demokracia 18.3% 7.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.1–8.6% 5.9–8.8% 5.5–9.4%
Progresívne Slovensko 7.0% 5.3% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.5% 4.2–6.8% 3.9–7.2%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 3.9% 5.2% 4.5–6.2% 4.3–6.4% 4.1–6.6% 3.8–7.1%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.6% 4.1% 3.4–4.9% 3.2–5.1% 3.1–5.3% 2.8–5.8%
Za ľudí 5.8% 4.1% 3.4–4.9% 3.2–5.1% 3.1–5.3% 2.8–5.8%
Dobrá voľba 3.1% 3.2% 2.6–3.9% 2.4–4.1% 2.3–4.3% 2.1–4.7%
MOST–HÍD 2.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–2.0%
VLASŤ 2.9% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
HLAS–sociálna demokracia 0 35 33–41 32–42 32–42 30–42
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 53 33 29–39 29–39 29–39 28–39
Sloboda a Solidarita 13 20 20–23 19–24 18–24 16–25
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 17 16 14–19 13–21 12–21 12–22
SME RODINA 17 14 13–16 12–16 12–17 12–20
SMER–sociálna demokracia 38 13 10–14 10–15 10–15 10–16
Progresívne Slovensko 0 10 0–11 0–11 0–11 0–12
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 9 0–10 0–11 0–13 0–13
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 0 0–9 0–9 0–9 0–10
Za ľudí 12 0 0–10 0–10 0–10 0–10
Dobrá voľba 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOST–HÍD 0 0 0 0 0 0
VLASŤ 0 0 0 0 0 0

HLAS–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.3% 100%  
30 1.1% 99.7%  
31 0.2% 98.6%  
32 6% 98%  
33 31% 92%  
34 3% 61%  
35 23% 57% Median
36 0.5% 34%  
37 16% 34%  
38 3% 18%  
39 0.7% 15%  
40 2% 14%  
41 7% 12%  
42 5% 5%  
43 0.1% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.8%  
28 0.9% 99.8%  
29 33% 99.0%  
30 2% 66%  
31 7% 64%  
32 3% 57%  
33 24% 54% Median
34 7% 31%  
35 7% 24%  
36 1.5% 17%  
37 3% 16%  
38 0.4% 13%  
39 13% 13%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0% Last Result

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0.5% 100%  
16 0.2% 99.5%  
17 1.0% 99.3%  
18 2% 98%  
19 3% 96%  
20 53% 93% Median
21 5% 40%  
22 5% 35%  
23 20% 29%  
24 9% 9%  
25 0.5% 0.7%  
26 0% 0.2%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 2% 99.7%  
13 6% 97%  
14 16% 91%  
15 3% 75%  
16 52% 72% Median
17 3% 20% Last Result
18 3% 17%  
19 7% 13%  
20 0.2% 6%  
21 4% 6%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 9% 99.8%  
13 34% 90%  
14 41% 56% Median
15 0.6% 16%  
16 10% 15%  
17 4% 5% Last Result
18 0.1% 1.3%  
19 0.1% 1.3%  
20 1.1% 1.2%  
21 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0.1% 99.9%  
10 33% 99.8%  
11 3% 67%  
12 12% 64%  
13 42% 52% Median
14 4% 10%  
15 5% 6%  
16 0.6% 0.7%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Progresívne Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 24% 100% Last Result
1 0% 76%  
2 0% 76%  
3 0% 76%  
4 0% 76%  
5 0% 76%  
6 0% 76%  
7 0% 76%  
8 0.2% 76%  
9 4% 76%  
10 60% 72% Median
11 10% 11%  
12 1.1% 1.4%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 32% 100% Last Result
1 0% 68%  
2 0% 68%  
3 0% 68%  
4 0% 68%  
5 0% 68%  
6 0% 68%  
7 0% 68%  
8 0.8% 68%  
9 25% 68% Median
10 33% 43%  
11 7% 10%  
12 0.8% 3%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 66% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 34%  
2 0% 34%  
3 0% 34%  
4 0% 34%  
5 0% 34%  
6 0% 34%  
7 0% 34%  
8 0.1% 34%  
9 33% 34%  
10 0.8% 0.9%  
11 0% 0%  

Za ľudí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Za ľudí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 82% 100% Median
1 0% 18%  
2 0% 18%  
3 0% 18%  
4 0% 18%  
5 0% 18%  
6 0% 18%  
7 0% 18%  
8 1.4% 18%  
9 2% 16%  
10 14% 14%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Dobrá voľba

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dobrá voľba page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

MOST–HÍD

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

VLASŤ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the VLASŤ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – SMER–sociálna demokracia 55 62 0% 56–68 56–70 56–71 56–72
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 17 49 0% 46–54 46–57 45–58 44–58
SME RODINA – SMER–sociálna demokracia 55 27 0% 23–30 23–31 23–31 23–32
SMER–sociálna demokracia 38 13 0% 10–14 10–15 10–15 10–16

HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0% 99.8%  
55 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
56 32% 99.8%  
57 0.8% 68%  
58 6% 67%  
59 0.4% 61%  
60 1.3% 60%  
61 1.5% 59%  
62 22% 58% Median
63 0.6% 36%  
64 14% 35%  
65 3% 21%  
66 7% 18%  
67 0.3% 11%  
68 2% 11%  
69 2% 9%  
70 4% 7%  
71 1.3% 3%  
72 2% 2%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority

HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 2% 99.6%  
45 0.4% 98%  
46 35% 97%  
47 4% 63%  
48 0.2% 59%  
49 21% 59% Median
50 2% 37%  
51 16% 35%  
52 1.0% 19%  
53 7% 18%  
54 2% 11%  
55 1.2% 10%  
56 0.2% 8%  
57 4% 8%  
58 4% 4%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

SME RODINA – SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0.2% 99.8%  
23 32% 99.7%  
24 3% 67%  
25 7% 64%  
26 6% 57%  
27 34% 51% Median
28 5% 16%  
29 0.9% 11%  
30 1.5% 10%  
31 6% 9%  
32 2% 2%  
33 0% 0.2%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0.1% 99.9%  
10 33% 99.8%  
11 3% 67%  
12 12% 64%  
13 42% 52% Median
14 4% 10%  
15 5% 6%  
16 0.6% 0.7%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations