Opinion Poll by Actly, 6–11 December 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia |
0.0% |
22.0% |
20.3–23.7% |
19.9–24.2% |
19.5–24.6% |
18.7–25.5% |
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti |
25.0% |
14.0% |
12.7–15.5% |
12.3–15.9% |
12.0–16.3% |
11.4–17.0% |
Sloboda a Solidarita |
6.2% |
13.4% |
12.1–14.8% |
11.7–15.3% |
11.4–15.6% |
10.8–16.4% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia |
18.3% |
10.3% |
9.1–11.6% |
8.8–12.0% |
8.6–12.3% |
8.0–13.0% |
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko |
8.0% |
6.1% |
5.2–7.2% |
5.0–7.5% |
4.8–7.8% |
4.4–8.3% |
Progresívne Slovensko |
7.0% |
5.6% |
4.8–6.6% |
4.5–6.9% |
4.3–7.2% |
4.0–7.7% |
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie |
4.6% |
5.4% |
4.6–6.4% |
4.3–6.7% |
4.1–7.0% |
3.8–7.5% |
SME RODINA |
8.2% |
5.0% |
4.2–6.0% |
4.0–6.3% |
3.8–6.5% |
3.5–7.0% |
Za ľudí |
5.8% |
4.2% |
3.5–5.1% |
3.3–5.4% |
3.1–5.6% |
2.8–6.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
HLAS–sociálna demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0% |
100% |
|
32 |
0% |
100% |
|
33 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
34 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
35 |
1.0% |
99.6% |
|
36 |
1.0% |
98.6% |
|
37 |
3% |
98% |
|
38 |
8% |
94% |
|
39 |
7% |
86% |
|
40 |
11% |
79% |
|
41 |
12% |
68% |
|
42 |
7% |
55% |
Median |
43 |
17% |
48% |
|
44 |
10% |
31% |
|
45 |
5% |
21% |
|
46 |
6% |
16% |
|
47 |
5% |
11% |
|
48 |
3% |
6% |
|
49 |
0.9% |
3% |
|
50 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
51 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
52 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
53 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
54 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
55 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
56 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
57 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
21 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
22 |
1.4% |
98.8% |
|
23 |
4% |
97% |
|
24 |
12% |
93% |
|
25 |
11% |
81% |
|
26 |
13% |
70% |
|
27 |
12% |
57% |
Median |
28 |
9% |
45% |
|
29 |
18% |
36% |
|
30 |
8% |
18% |
|
31 |
4% |
10% |
|
32 |
4% |
6% |
|
33 |
1.2% |
3% |
|
34 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
35 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sloboda a Solidarita
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
21 |
1.4% |
99.3% |
|
22 |
6% |
98% |
|
23 |
9% |
92% |
|
24 |
17% |
82% |
|
25 |
16% |
65% |
Median |
26 |
9% |
49% |
|
27 |
19% |
40% |
|
28 |
10% |
22% |
|
29 |
5% |
12% |
|
30 |
3% |
7% |
|
31 |
2% |
4% |
|
32 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
33 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
34 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
SMER–sociálna demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.5% |
99.6% |
|
16 |
6% |
99.0% |
|
17 |
7% |
93% |
|
18 |
9% |
86% |
|
19 |
23% |
77% |
|
20 |
22% |
54% |
Median |
21 |
11% |
32% |
|
22 |
10% |
21% |
|
23 |
6% |
11% |
|
24 |
3% |
5% |
|
25 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
26 |
0.7% |
1.1% |
|
27 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
6% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
94% |
|
2 |
0% |
94% |
|
3 |
0% |
94% |
|
4 |
0% |
94% |
|
5 |
0% |
94% |
|
6 |
0% |
94% |
|
7 |
0% |
94% |
|
8 |
0% |
94% |
|
9 |
2% |
94% |
|
10 |
12% |
92% |
|
11 |
29% |
80% |
|
12 |
14% |
51% |
Median |
13 |
27% |
38% |
|
14 |
6% |
11% |
|
15 |
2% |
5% |
|
16 |
2% |
3% |
|
17 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
Last Result |
18 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Progresívne Slovensko
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
20% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
80% |
|
2 |
0% |
80% |
|
3 |
0% |
80% |
|
4 |
0% |
80% |
|
5 |
0% |
80% |
|
6 |
0% |
80% |
|
7 |
0% |
80% |
|
8 |
0% |
80% |
|
9 |
5% |
80% |
|
10 |
21% |
75% |
|
11 |
28% |
54% |
Median |
12 |
15% |
26% |
|
13 |
6% |
10% |
|
14 |
3% |
4% |
|
15 |
0.8% |
1.3% |
|
16 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
17 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
27% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
73% |
|
2 |
0% |
73% |
|
3 |
0% |
73% |
|
4 |
0% |
73% |
|
5 |
0% |
73% |
|
6 |
0% |
73% |
|
7 |
0% |
73% |
|
8 |
0% |
73% |
|
9 |
3% |
73% |
|
10 |
28% |
70% |
Median |
11 |
21% |
42% |
|
12 |
11% |
21% |
|
13 |
5% |
9% |
|
14 |
4% |
4% |
|
15 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
16 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
SME RODINA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
45% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
55% |
|
2 |
0% |
55% |
|
3 |
0% |
55% |
|
4 |
0% |
55% |
|
5 |
0% |
55% |
|
6 |
0% |
55% |
|
7 |
0% |
55% |
|
8 |
0% |
55% |
|
9 |
6% |
55% |
Median |
10 |
24% |
49% |
|
11 |
17% |
25% |
|
12 |
6% |
8% |
|
13 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
14 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
15 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Za ľudí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Za ľudí page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
89% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
11% |
|
2 |
0% |
11% |
|
3 |
0% |
11% |
|
4 |
0% |
11% |
|
5 |
0% |
11% |
|
6 |
0% |
11% |
|
7 |
0% |
11% |
|
8 |
0% |
11% |
|
9 |
3% |
11% |
|
10 |
5% |
8% |
|
11 |
2% |
3% |
|
12 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
Last Result |
13 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA |
55 |
68 |
7% |
60–75 |
59–77 |
58–79 |
55–81 |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA |
17 |
48 |
0% |
41–54 |
40–56 |
39–58 |
37–60 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA |
55 |
26 |
0% |
19–32 |
18–33 |
17–33 |
16–36 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia |
38 |
20 |
0% |
17–23 |
16–23 |
16–24 |
15–26 |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
55 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
56 |
0.3% |
99.3% |
|
57 |
0.4% |
99.0% |
|
58 |
1.3% |
98.5% |
|
59 |
5% |
97% |
|
60 |
4% |
92% |
|
61 |
3% |
88% |
|
62 |
3% |
85% |
|
63 |
9% |
82% |
|
64 |
6% |
74% |
|
65 |
3% |
68% |
|
66 |
8% |
65% |
|
67 |
6% |
57% |
|
68 |
8% |
51% |
|
69 |
6% |
43% |
|
70 |
5% |
37% |
|
71 |
5% |
33% |
Median |
72 |
4% |
28% |
|
73 |
3% |
24% |
|
74 |
7% |
21% |
|
75 |
7% |
14% |
|
76 |
1.4% |
7% |
Majority |
77 |
0.7% |
6% |
|
78 |
1.1% |
5% |
|
79 |
3% |
4% |
|
80 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
81 |
0.4% |
0.9% |
|
82 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
83 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
84 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
85 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
86 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
87 |
0% |
0% |
|
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0% |
100% |
|
32 |
0% |
100% |
|
33 |
0% |
100% |
|
34 |
0% |
100% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
36 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
37 |
0.5% |
99.7% |
|
38 |
1.2% |
99.2% |
|
39 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
40 |
4% |
97% |
|
41 |
9% |
93% |
|
42 |
4% |
85% |
|
43 |
5% |
81% |
|
44 |
7% |
76% |
|
45 |
4% |
70% |
|
46 |
4% |
66% |
|
47 |
7% |
62% |
|
48 |
9% |
55% |
|
49 |
4% |
46% |
|
50 |
10% |
42% |
|
51 |
4% |
32% |
Median |
52 |
3% |
28% |
|
53 |
8% |
25% |
|
54 |
9% |
17% |
|
55 |
1.5% |
8% |
|
56 |
2% |
6% |
|
57 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
58 |
3% |
4% |
|
59 |
0.3% |
1.0% |
|
60 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
61 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
62 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
63 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
64 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
65 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
17 |
2% |
99.3% |
|
18 |
5% |
97% |
|
19 |
14% |
92% |
|
20 |
8% |
79% |
|
21 |
4% |
71% |
|
22 |
4% |
67% |
|
23 |
4% |
63% |
|
24 |
2% |
59% |
|
25 |
2% |
57% |
|
26 |
7% |
54% |
|
27 |
2% |
47% |
|
28 |
3% |
44% |
|
29 |
5% |
42% |
Median |
30 |
13% |
37% |
|
31 |
9% |
24% |
|
32 |
9% |
15% |
|
33 |
4% |
6% |
|
34 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
35 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
36 |
0.6% |
0.9% |
|
37 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
SMER–sociálna demokracia
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.5% |
99.6% |
|
16 |
6% |
99.0% |
|
17 |
7% |
93% |
|
18 |
9% |
86% |
|
19 |
23% |
77% |
|
20 |
22% |
54% |
Median |
21 |
11% |
32% |
|
22 |
10% |
21% |
|
23 |
6% |
11% |
|
24 |
3% |
5% |
|
25 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
26 |
0.7% |
1.1% |
|
27 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Actly
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 6–11 December 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1002
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.98%