Opinion Poll by Actly, 6–11 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
HLAS–sociálna demokracia 0.0% 22.0% 20.3–23.7% 19.9–24.2% 19.5–24.6% 18.7–25.5%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 25.0% 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.3% 11.4–17.0%
Sloboda a Solidarita 6.2% 13.4% 12.1–14.8% 11.7–15.3% 11.4–15.6% 10.8–16.4%
SMER–sociálna demokracia 18.3% 10.3% 9.1–11.6% 8.8–12.0% 8.6–12.3% 8.0–13.0%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.8% 4.4–8.3%
Progresívne Slovensko 7.0% 5.6% 4.8–6.6% 4.5–6.9% 4.3–7.2% 4.0–7.7%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.6% 5.4% 4.6–6.4% 4.3–6.7% 4.1–7.0% 3.8–7.5%
SME RODINA 8.2% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Za ľudí 5.8% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
HLAS–sociálna demokracia 0 42 38–47 37–48 37–49 35–52
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 53 27 24–31 23–32 22–33 21–35
Sloboda a Solidarita 13 25 23–29 22–30 22–31 20–32
SMER–sociálna demokracia 38 20 17–23 16–23 16–24 15–26
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 17 12 10–14 0–15 0–16 0–17
Progresívne Slovensko 0 11 0–13 0–13 0–14 0–15
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 10 0–12 0–13 0–14 0–14
SME RODINA 17 9 0–11 0–12 0–12 0–13
Za ľudí 12 0 0–9 0–10 0–11 0–11

HLAS–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.8%  
35 1.0% 99.6%  
36 1.0% 98.6%  
37 3% 98%  
38 8% 94%  
39 7% 86%  
40 11% 79%  
41 12% 68%  
42 7% 55% Median
43 17% 48%  
44 10% 31%  
45 5% 21%  
46 6% 16%  
47 5% 11%  
48 3% 6%  
49 0.9% 3%  
50 0.9% 2%  
51 0.9% 2%  
52 0.4% 0.7%  
53 0.1% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 1.0% 99.8%  
22 1.4% 98.8%  
23 4% 97%  
24 12% 93%  
25 11% 81%  
26 13% 70%  
27 12% 57% Median
28 9% 45%  
29 18% 36%  
30 8% 18%  
31 4% 10%  
32 4% 6%  
33 1.2% 3%  
34 0.9% 2%  
35 0.4% 0.7%  
36 0.1% 0.3%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0% Last Result

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.2% 100%  
20 0.5% 99.8%  
21 1.4% 99.3%  
22 6% 98%  
23 9% 92%  
24 17% 82%  
25 16% 65% Median
26 9% 49%  
27 19% 40%  
28 10% 22%  
29 5% 12%  
30 3% 7%  
31 2% 4%  
32 1.3% 2%  
33 0.1% 0.5%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.4% 100%  
15 0.5% 99.6%  
16 6% 99.0%  
17 7% 93%  
18 9% 86%  
19 23% 77%  
20 22% 54% Median
21 11% 32%  
22 10% 21%  
23 6% 11%  
24 3% 5%  
25 1.3% 2%  
26 0.7% 1.1%  
27 0.2% 0.4%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 0% 94%  
2 0% 94%  
3 0% 94%  
4 0% 94%  
5 0% 94%  
6 0% 94%  
7 0% 94%  
8 0% 94%  
9 2% 94%  
10 12% 92%  
11 29% 80%  
12 14% 51% Median
13 27% 38%  
14 6% 11%  
15 2% 5%  
16 2% 3%  
17 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 20% 100% Last Result
1 0% 80%  
2 0% 80%  
3 0% 80%  
4 0% 80%  
5 0% 80%  
6 0% 80%  
7 0% 80%  
8 0% 80%  
9 5% 80%  
10 21% 75%  
11 28% 54% Median
12 15% 26%  
13 6% 10%  
14 3% 4%  
15 0.8% 1.3%  
16 0.4% 0.5%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 27% 100% Last Result
1 0% 73%  
2 0% 73%  
3 0% 73%  
4 0% 73%  
5 0% 73%  
6 0% 73%  
7 0% 73%  
8 0% 73%  
9 3% 73%  
10 28% 70% Median
11 21% 42%  
12 11% 21%  
13 5% 9%  
14 4% 4%  
15 0.3% 0.4%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 45% 100%  
1 0% 55%  
2 0% 55%  
3 0% 55%  
4 0% 55%  
5 0% 55%  
6 0% 55%  
7 0% 55%  
8 0% 55%  
9 6% 55% Median
10 24% 49%  
11 17% 25%  
12 6% 8%  
13 1.4% 2%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Za ľudí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Za ľudí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Median
1 0% 11%  
2 0% 11%  
3 0% 11%  
4 0% 11%  
5 0% 11%  
6 0% 11%  
7 0% 11%  
8 0% 11%  
9 3% 11%  
10 5% 8%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 55 68 7% 60–75 59–77 58–79 55–81
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 17 48 0% 41–54 40–56 39–58 37–60
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 55 26 0% 19–32 18–33 17–33 16–36
SMER–sociálna demokracia 38 20 0% 17–23 16–23 16–24 15–26

HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0.6% 99.9% Last Result
56 0.3% 99.3%  
57 0.4% 99.0%  
58 1.3% 98.5%  
59 5% 97%  
60 4% 92%  
61 3% 88%  
62 3% 85%  
63 9% 82%  
64 6% 74%  
65 3% 68%  
66 8% 65%  
67 6% 57%  
68 8% 51%  
69 6% 43%  
70 5% 37%  
71 5% 33% Median
72 4% 28%  
73 3% 24%  
74 7% 21%  
75 7% 14%  
76 1.4% 7% Majority
77 0.7% 6%  
78 1.1% 5%  
79 3% 4%  
80 0.2% 1.1%  
81 0.4% 0.9%  
82 0.1% 0.4%  
83 0.2% 0.4%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 99.7%  
38 1.2% 99.2%  
39 0.8% 98%  
40 4% 97%  
41 9% 93%  
42 4% 85%  
43 5% 81%  
44 7% 76%  
45 4% 70%  
46 4% 66%  
47 7% 62%  
48 9% 55%  
49 4% 46%  
50 10% 42%  
51 4% 32% Median
52 3% 28%  
53 8% 25%  
54 9% 17%  
55 1.5% 8%  
56 2% 6%  
57 0.5% 5%  
58 3% 4%  
59 0.3% 1.0%  
60 0.2% 0.7%  
61 0.1% 0.5%  
62 0.1% 0.4%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.5% 99.8%  
17 2% 99.3%  
18 5% 97%  
19 14% 92%  
20 8% 79%  
21 4% 71%  
22 4% 67%  
23 4% 63%  
24 2% 59%  
25 2% 57%  
26 7% 54%  
27 2% 47%  
28 3% 44%  
29 5% 42% Median
30 13% 37%  
31 9% 24%  
32 9% 15%  
33 4% 6%  
34 0.8% 2%  
35 0.8% 2%  
36 0.6% 0.9%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.4% 100%  
15 0.5% 99.6%  
16 6% 99.0%  
17 7% 93%  
18 9% 86%  
19 23% 77%  
20 22% 54% Median
21 11% 32%  
22 10% 21%  
23 6% 11%  
24 3% 5%  
25 1.3% 2%  
26 0.7% 1.1%  
27 0.2% 0.4%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations