Opinion Poll by NMS, 2–8 June 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 18.3% 19.6% 18.3–21.0% 17.9–21.4% 17.6–21.7% 17.0–22.4%
Progresívne Slovensko 7.0% 15.2% 14.1–16.5% 13.7–16.9% 13.4–17.2% 12.9–17.8%
HLAS–sociálna demokracia–Dobrá voľba 0.0% 14.1% 13.0–15.3% 12.7–15.7% 12.4–16.0% 11.9–16.6%
REPUBLIKA 0.0% 9.4% 8.5–10.5% 8.2–10.8% 8.0–11.0% 7.6–11.6%
SME RODINA 8.2% 6.8% 6.0–7.7% 5.8–8.0% 5.6–8.2% 5.2–8.7%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 25.0% 6.3% 5.5–7.2% 5.3–7.5% 5.2–7.7% 4.8–8.1%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.6% 6.0% 5.3–6.9% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.6–7.8%
Sloboda a Solidarita 6.2% 4.7% 4.1–5.5% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–5.9% 3.4–6.3%
Slovenská národná strana 3.2% 3.9% 3.3–4.6% 3.1–4.8% 3.0–5.0% 2.7–5.4%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 3.9% 3.4% 2.9–4.1% 2.7–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.3–4.8%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 3.1% 2.6–3.8% 2.5–4.0% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.5%
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 7.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.3% 1.3–2.5% 1.2–2.6% 1.1–2.9%
Za ľudí 5.8% 1.8% 1.4–2.3% 1.3–2.5% 1.2–2.6% 1.1–2.9%
MODRÍ–Európske Slovensko–MOST–HÍD 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0%
Magyar Fórum 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.2% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 38 37 37–38 36–38 36–40 33–42
Progresívne Slovensko 0 29 29–30 28–30 26–30 26–30
HLAS–sociálna demokracia–Dobrá voľba 0 26 26–28 26–28 24–28 24–29
REPUBLIKA 0 22 18–22 14–22 14–22 14–22
SME RODINA 17 13 12–13 12–13 12–13 12–15
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 53 11 11–13 11–13 11–13 10–13
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 12 11–12 10–12 10–12 10–14
Sloboda a Solidarita 13 0 0 0–10 0–10 0–10
Slovenská národná strana 0 0 0 0 0 0
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 17 0 0 0 0 0
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0 0 0 0 0 0
Za ľudí 12 0 0 0 0 0
MODRÍ–Európske Slovensko–MOST–HÍD 0 0 0 0 0 0
Magyar Fórum 0 0 0 0 0 0

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.6% 99.9%  
34 0.4% 99.3%  
35 0.1% 98.8%  
36 5% 98.8%  
37 80% 94% Median
38 11% 14% Last Result
39 0.2% 4%  
40 3% 4%  
41 0.2% 1.0%  
42 0.7% 0.7%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 3% 99.8%  
27 1.1% 97%  
28 5% 96%  
29 80% 91% Median
30 11% 12%  
31 0.2% 0.4%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia–Dobrá voľba

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia–Dobrá voľba page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.8%  
24 3% 99.7%  
25 0.8% 97%  
26 79% 96% Median
27 5% 17%  
28 11% 12%  
29 0.7% 1.0%  
30 0% 0.3%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 7% 100%  
15 0.1% 93%  
16 0.7% 93%  
17 1.0% 92%  
18 11% 91%  
19 1.3% 80%  
20 0.1% 79%  
21 0.1% 79%  
22 79% 79% Median
23 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 0.1% 99.7%  
12 14% 99.6%  
13 84% 86% Median
14 1.0% 2%  
15 0.6% 0.8%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0.7% 99.9%  
11 80% 99.3% Median
12 4% 19%  
13 15% 15%  
14 0.2% 0.3%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0% Last Result

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0% 99.8%  
8 0% 99.8%  
9 0.3% 99.8%  
10 6% 99.5%  
11 14% 94%  
12 79% 80% Median
13 0.5% 1.2%  
14 0.7% 0.7%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Median
1 0% 8%  
2 0% 8%  
3 0% 8%  
4 0% 8%  
5 0% 8%  
6 0% 8%  
7 0% 8%  
8 0% 8%  
9 0.8% 8%  
10 7% 7%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.3%  
2 0% 0.3%  
3 0% 0.3%  
4 0% 0.3%  
5 0% 0.3%  
6 0% 0.3%  
7 0% 0.3%  
8 0% 0.3%  
9 0% 0.3%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Za ľudí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Za ľudí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

MODRÍ–Európske Slovensko–MOST–HÍD

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MODRÍ–Európske Slovensko–MOST–HÍD page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Magyar Fórum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Fórum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 72 50 0% 50 49–50 49–52 46–55
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 55 50 0% 50 49–50 49–52 46–55
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 55 50 0% 50 49–50 49–52 46–55
SMER–sociálna demokracia 38 37 0% 37–38 36–38 36–40 33–42
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 38 37 0% 37–38 36–38 36–40 33–42

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 99.9%  
44 0% 99.9%  
45 0% 99.9%  
46 0.7% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.2%  
48 0.2% 99.1%  
49 4% 98.8%  
50 90% 95% Median
51 0.2% 5%  
52 3% 4%  
53 0.1% 1.3%  
54 0.1% 1.2%  
55 0.7% 1.1%  
56 0% 0.3%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 99.9%  
44 0% 99.9%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.7% 99.8%  
47 0.2% 99.1%  
48 0.2% 98.9%  
49 4% 98.7%  
50 90% 94% Median
51 0.2% 4%  
52 3% 4%  
53 0.1% 1.1%  
54 0.1% 0.9%  
55 0.7% 0.8% Last Result
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 99.9%  
44 0% 99.9%  
45 0% 99.9%  
46 0.7% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.2%  
48 0.2% 99.1%  
49 4% 98.8%  
50 90% 95% Median
51 0.2% 5%  
52 3% 4%  
53 0.1% 1.3%  
54 0.1% 1.2%  
55 0.7% 1.1% Last Result
56 0% 0.3%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.6% 99.9%  
34 0.4% 99.3%  
35 0.1% 98.8%  
36 5% 98.8%  
37 80% 94% Median
38 11% 14% Last Result
39 0.2% 4%  
40 3% 4%  
41 0.2% 1.0%  
42 0.7% 0.7%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.5% 99.9%  
34 0.4% 99.4%  
35 0% 99.0%  
36 5% 98.9%  
37 80% 94% Median
38 11% 15% Last Result
39 0.2% 4%  
40 3% 4%  
41 0.2% 1.3%  
42 0.7% 1.0%  
43 0.1% 0.3%  
44 0% 0.2%  
45 0% 0.2%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations