Opinion Poll by IPSOS for Denník N, 12–16 June 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 18.3% 18.9% 17.4–20.5% 16.9–21.0% 16.6–21.4% 15.9–22.3%
Progresívne Slovensko 7.0% 15.5% 14.1–17.0% 13.7–17.5% 13.4–17.9% 12.7–18.6%
HLAS–sociálna demokracia–Dobrá voľba 0.0% 14.8% 13.4–16.3% 13.0–16.8% 12.7–17.1% 12.1–17.9%
REPUBLIKA 0.0% 8.3% 7.3–9.5% 7.0–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.3–10.8%
Sloboda a Solidarita 6.2% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
SME RODINA 8.2% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 25.0% 6.4% 5.5–7.5% 5.2–7.8% 5.0–8.1% 4.6–8.6%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.6% 5.6% 4.8–6.6% 4.5–6.9% 4.3–7.2% 4.0–7.7%
Slovenská národná strana 3.2% 4.3% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.7% 2.9–6.2%
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 7.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 3.9% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 38 34 31–38 30–39 29–39 28–41
Progresívne Slovensko 0 27 25–32 24–32 24–32 23–34
HLAS–sociálna demokracia–Dobrá voľba 0 25 24–29 23–30 22–30 22–32
REPUBLIKA 0 15 12–17 12–17 12–18 11–20
Sloboda a Solidarita 13 13 11–15 10–16 10–16 9–17
SME RODINA 17 12 11–15 10–15 10–16 9–18
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 53 11 10–13 9–14 9–15 0–15
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 10 0–12 0–13 0–13 0–13
Slovenská národná strana 0 0 0–9 0–10 0–10 0–11
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0 0 0 0–9 0–9 0–11
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0 0 0 0

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.3% 99.9%  
28 0.7% 99.6%  
29 3% 98.9%  
30 3% 96%  
31 4% 92%  
32 19% 88%  
33 13% 69%  
34 16% 56% Median
35 20% 40%  
36 7% 21%  
37 3% 14%  
38 4% 11% Last Result
39 5% 6%  
40 0.5% 1.2%  
41 0.4% 0.7%  
42 0.3% 0.3%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.2% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.8%  
23 1.1% 99.6%  
24 6% 98.5%  
25 8% 93%  
26 25% 85%  
27 12% 60% Median
28 11% 48%  
29 13% 37%  
30 7% 24%  
31 2% 17%  
32 13% 15%  
33 0.4% 2%  
34 1.3% 2%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia–Dobrá voľba

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia–Dobrá voľba page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.4% 99.9%  
22 4% 99.5%  
23 6% 96%  
24 3% 90%  
25 42% 87% Median
26 12% 45%  
27 6% 33%  
28 11% 27%  
29 6% 16%  
30 8% 10%  
31 1.4% 2%  
32 0.7% 0.9%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 100%  
11 1.2% 99.9%  
12 11% 98.7%  
13 12% 88%  
14 21% 76%  
15 15% 55% Median
16 25% 40%  
17 11% 15%  
18 2% 4%  
19 1.3% 2%  
20 0.7% 1.0%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0% 99.8%  
8 0% 99.8%  
9 0.7% 99.8%  
10 4% 99.1%  
11 8% 95%  
12 20% 87%  
13 29% 67% Last Result, Median
14 21% 37%  
15 9% 16%  
16 5% 7%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0.6% 99.9%  
10 7% 99.3%  
11 20% 92%  
12 30% 72% Median
13 17% 42%  
14 11% 25%  
15 11% 14%  
16 2% 3%  
17 0.6% 2% Last Result
18 1.2% 1.2%  
19 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.4% 100%  
1 0% 98.6%  
2 0% 98.6%  
3 0% 98.6%  
4 0% 98.6%  
5 0% 98.6%  
6 0% 98.6%  
7 0% 98.6%  
8 0.1% 98.6%  
9 5% 98.5%  
10 10% 94%  
11 34% 84% Median
12 17% 50%  
13 26% 33%  
14 3% 7%  
15 3% 4%  
16 0.4% 0.5%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0% Last Result

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 18% 100% Last Result
1 0% 82%  
2 0% 82%  
3 0% 82%  
4 0% 82%  
5 0% 82%  
6 0% 82%  
7 0% 82%  
8 1.0% 82%  
9 14% 81%  
10 35% 67% Median
11 17% 31%  
12 8% 14%  
13 6% 7%  
14 0.3% 0.4%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 11%  
2 0% 11%  
3 0% 11%  
4 0% 11%  
5 0% 11%  
6 0% 11%  
7 0% 11%  
8 0.7% 11%  
9 4% 11%  
10 6% 7%  
11 1.0% 1.3%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0% 6%  
3 0% 6%  
4 0% 6%  
5 0% 6%  
6 0% 6%  
7 0% 6%  
8 0.2% 6%  
9 4% 6%  
10 1.0% 2%  
11 0.7% 0.7%  
12 0% 0%  

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0% 0.2%  
5 0% 0.2%  
6 0% 0.2%  
7 0% 0.2%  
8 0% 0.2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 55 46 0% 44–53 42–57 41–57 40–59
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 55 46 0% 43–51 42–52 41–53 40–55
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 38 34 0% 32–40 30–44 29–44 28–46
SMER–sociálna demokracia 38 34 0% 31–38 30–39 29–39 28–41

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.5% 99.8%  
41 2% 99.3%  
42 3% 97%  
43 3% 94%  
44 15% 91%  
45 7% 76%  
46 19% 69% Median
47 10% 50%  
48 9% 39%  
49 7% 30%  
50 2% 24%  
51 6% 22%  
52 5% 16%  
53 2% 11%  
54 0.8% 9%  
55 2% 8% Last Result
56 0.7% 6%  
57 4% 6%  
58 0.8% 2%  
59 0.4% 0.8%  
60 0.3% 0.4%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.3% 99.8%  
40 0.9% 99.5%  
41 3% 98.6%  
42 4% 96%  
43 4% 92%  
44 15% 88%  
45 8% 73%  
46 21% 65% Median
47 14% 44%  
48 10% 30%  
49 7% 21%  
50 1.3% 13%  
51 6% 12%  
52 4% 6%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.3% 1.0%  
55 0.5% 0.7% Last Result
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 3% 99.5%  
30 3% 97%  
31 2% 94%  
32 18% 92%  
33 12% 74%  
34 12% 62% Median
35 19% 50%  
36 7% 31%  
37 3% 24%  
38 4% 21% Last Result
39 6% 16%  
40 2% 11%  
41 1.5% 9%  
42 1.1% 7%  
43 0.5% 6%  
44 4% 6%  
45 1.2% 2%  
46 0.1% 0.5%  
47 0.1% 0.4%  
48 0.3% 0.4%  
49 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.3% 99.9%  
28 0.7% 99.6%  
29 3% 98.9%  
30 3% 96%  
31 4% 92%  
32 19% 88%  
33 13% 69%  
34 16% 56% Median
35 20% 40%  
36 7% 21%  
37 3% 14%  
38 4% 11% Last Result
39 5% 6%  
40 0.5% 1.2%  
41 0.4% 0.7%  
42 0.3% 0.3%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations