Opinion Poll by Median, 15 May–20 June 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 18.3% | 18.0% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.1–20.0% | 15.7–20.4% | 15.1–21.2% |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia–Dobrá voľba | 0.0% | 14.1% | 12.8–15.6% | 12.4–16.0% | 12.1–16.4% | 11.5–17.1% |
| Progresívne Slovensko | 7.0% | 11.6% | 10.4–13.0% | 10.1–13.3% | 9.8–13.7% | 9.2–14.4% |
| REPUBLIKA | 0.0% | 8.2% | 7.2–9.4% | 6.9–9.7% | 6.7–10.0% | 6.2–10.6% |
| OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti | 25.0% | 7.1% | 6.2–8.3% | 5.9–8.6% | 5.7–8.9% | 5.3–9.4% |
| SME RODINA | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.9–8.5% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.2–9.3% |
| Sloboda a Solidarita | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.7–7.7% | 5.4–8.0% | 5.2–8.2% | 4.8–8.8% |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie | 4.6% | 6.5% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.3–7.9% | 5.1–8.1% | 4.7–8.7% |
| SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia | 7.0% | 4.7% | 4.0–5.7% | 3.8–6.0% | 3.6–6.2% | 3.3–6.7% |
| Slovenská národná strana | 3.2% | 4.6% | 3.9–5.6% | 3.7–5.9% | 3.5–6.1% | 3.2–6.6% |
| Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 8.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.9–4.6% |
| Za ľudí | 5.8% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.2% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.5% | 0.8–2.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 38 | 33 | 29–36 | 28–37 | 28–37 | 27–39 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia–Dobrá voľba | 0 | 26 | 23–28 | 23–29 | 22–30 | 20–31 |
| Progresívne Slovensko | 0 | 21 | 18–24 | 17–24 | 16–24 | 16–26 |
| REPUBLIKA | 0 | 16 | 13–18 | 12–18 | 10–18 | 10–19 |
| OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti | 53 | 13 | 11–14 | 11–15 | 10–16 | 0–17 |
| SME RODINA | 17 | 13 | 12–14 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 9–17 |
| Sloboda a Solidarita | 13 | 12 | 10–13 | 10–14 | 9–15 | 0–15 |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie | 0 | 11 | 9–15 | 9–16 | 9–16 | 0–16 |
| SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia | 0 | 0 | 0–9 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–12 |
| Slovenská národná strana | 0 | 0 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–11 |
| Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Za ľudí | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 7% | 98% | |
| 29 | 3% | 90% | |
| 30 | 7% | 87% | |
| 31 | 10% | 80% | |
| 32 | 12% | 71% | |
| 33 | 16% | 59% | Median |
| 34 | 27% | 42% | |
| 35 | 5% | 15% | |
| 36 | 2% | 10% | |
| 37 | 7% | 8% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia–Dobrá voľba
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia–Dobrá voľba page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 22 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 23 | 15% | 97% | |
| 24 | 8% | 82% | |
| 25 | 11% | 74% | |
| 26 | 16% | 63% | Median |
| 27 | 12% | 47% | |
| 28 | 29% | 35% | |
| 29 | 2% | 6% | |
| 30 | 2% | 3% | |
| 31 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Progresívne Slovensko
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 3% | 100% | |
| 17 | 7% | 97% | |
| 18 | 2% | 91% | |
| 19 | 11% | 89% | |
| 20 | 21% | 78% | |
| 21 | 26% | 57% | Median |
| 22 | 11% | 31% | |
| 23 | 5% | 20% | |
| 24 | 13% | 15% | |
| 25 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
REPUBLIKA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 3% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 12 | 3% | 96% | |
| 13 | 4% | 93% | |
| 14 | 22% | 90% | |
| 15 | 9% | 68% | |
| 16 | 25% | 59% | Median |
| 17 | 8% | 34% | |
| 18 | 24% | 26% | |
| 19 | 2% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 10 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 11 | 9% | 97% | |
| 12 | 20% | 89% | |
| 13 | 34% | 69% | Median |
| 14 | 25% | 34% | |
| 15 | 5% | 9% | |
| 16 | 3% | 4% | |
| 17 | 1.3% | 1.5% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
SME RODINA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 11 | 3% | 98% | |
| 12 | 12% | 95% | |
| 13 | 50% | 82% | Median |
| 14 | 26% | 33% | |
| 15 | 5% | 7% | |
| 16 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Sloboda a Solidarita
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 9 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 10 | 12% | 96% | |
| 11 | 27% | 83% | |
| 12 | 25% | 56% | Median |
| 13 | 24% | 31% | Last Result |
| 14 | 5% | 7% | |
| 15 | 2% | 3% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 4 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 5 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 7 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 8 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 9 | 10% | 98.7% | |
| 10 | 25% | 88% | |
| 11 | 16% | 63% | Median |
| 12 | 15% | 47% | |
| 13 | 16% | 32% | |
| 14 | 3% | 16% | |
| 15 | 3% | 13% | |
| 16 | 10% | 10% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 79% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 21% | |
| 2 | 0% | 21% | |
| 3 | 0% | 21% | |
| 4 | 0% | 21% | |
| 5 | 0% | 21% | |
| 6 | 0% | 21% | |
| 7 | 0% | 21% | |
| 8 | 0% | 21% | |
| 9 | 16% | 21% | |
| 10 | 3% | 5% | |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenská národná strana
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 63% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 37% | |
| 2 | 0% | 37% | |
| 3 | 0% | 37% | |
| 4 | 0% | 37% | |
| 5 | 0% | 37% | |
| 6 | 0% | 37% | |
| 7 | 0% | 37% | |
| 8 | 5% | 37% | |
| 9 | 19% | 32% | |
| 10 | 11% | 13% | |
| 11 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Za ľudí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Za ľudí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 72 | 48 | 0% | 45–55 | 42–55 | 41–57 | 39–60 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana | 55 | 48 | 0% | 45–55 | 42–55 | 41–57 | 39–60 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA | 55 | 46 | 0% | 42–49 | 40–50 | 40–50 | 39–55 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana | 38 | 34 | 0% | 32–42 | 29–42 | 28–44 | 27–47 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 38 | 33 | 0% | 29–36 | 28–37 | 28–37 | 27–39 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 41 | 2% | 98% | |
| 42 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 43 | 2% | 95% | |
| 44 | 2% | 93% | |
| 45 | 2% | 91% | |
| 46 | 11% | 89% | Median |
| 47 | 21% | 77% | |
| 48 | 14% | 56% | |
| 49 | 1.5% | 43% | |
| 50 | 8% | 41% | |
| 51 | 2% | 33% | |
| 52 | 4% | 32% | |
| 53 | 3% | 28% | |
| 54 | 7% | 24% | |
| 55 | 13% | 18% | |
| 56 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 57 | 3% | 4% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 60 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 41 | 2% | 98% | |
| 42 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 43 | 2% | 95% | |
| 44 | 2% | 93% | |
| 45 | 2% | 91% | |
| 46 | 11% | 89% | Median |
| 47 | 21% | 77% | |
| 48 | 14% | 56% | |
| 49 | 1.5% | 43% | |
| 50 | 8% | 41% | |
| 51 | 2% | 33% | |
| 52 | 4% | 31% | |
| 53 | 3% | 28% | |
| 54 | 7% | 24% | |
| 55 | 13% | 18% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 57 | 3% | 4% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 60 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 39 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 40 | 6% | 98.9% | |
| 41 | 3% | 93% | |
| 42 | 3% | 90% | |
| 43 | 8% | 87% | |
| 44 | 9% | 80% | |
| 45 | 3% | 71% | |
| 46 | 24% | 68% | Median |
| 47 | 21% | 44% | |
| 48 | 12% | 22% | |
| 49 | 1.3% | 10% | |
| 50 | 7% | 9% | |
| 51 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 55 | 0.5% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 2% | 98% | |
| 29 | 2% | 96% | |
| 30 | 3% | 95% | |
| 31 | 1.3% | 92% | |
| 32 | 11% | 91% | |
| 33 | 4% | 79% | Median |
| 34 | 26% | 75% | |
| 35 | 3% | 49% | |
| 36 | 6% | 46% | |
| 37 | 7% | 40% | |
| 38 | 2% | 33% | Last Result |
| 39 | 5% | 31% | |
| 40 | 2% | 26% | |
| 41 | 8% | 24% | |
| 42 | 12% | 17% | |
| 43 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 44 | 3% | 4% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 47 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 7% | 98% | |
| 29 | 3% | 90% | |
| 30 | 7% | 87% | |
| 31 | 10% | 80% | |
| 32 | 12% | 71% | |
| 33 | 16% | 59% | Median |
| 34 | 27% | 42% | |
| 35 | 5% | 15% | |
| 36 | 2% | 10% | |
| 37 | 7% | 8% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Median
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 15 May–20 June 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1036
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.19%