Opinion Poll by Parsifal SC for Nova24TV, 5–6 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 31.2% 28.6–33.9% 27.9–34.7% 27.3–35.3% 26.1–36.7%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 16.6% 14.6–18.9% 14.1–19.5% 13.6–20.1% 12.7–21.2%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 12.0% 10.3–14.1% 9.9–14.6% 9.5–15.2% 8.7–16.2%
Levica 9.3% 10.3% 8.7–12.2% 8.3–12.7% 7.9–13.2% 7.2–14.2%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 7.5% 6.2–9.2% 5.8–9.7% 5.5–10.1% 4.9–11.0%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 5.9% 4.8–7.5% 4.5–7.9% 4.2–8.3% 3.7–9.1%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 4.7% 3.7–6.2% 3.4–6.6% 3.2–7.0% 2.8–7.7%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 4.5% 3.6–6.0% 3.3–6.4% 3.0–6.7% 2.6–7.5%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 1.6% 1.1–2.5% 0.9–2.8% 0.8–3.1% 0.6–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 28 26–32 26–33 25–33 24–35
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 15 13–18 13–18 12–18 11–20
Socialni demokrati 10 11 9–13 9–13 8–14 8–15
Levica 9 9 8–11 7–12 7–12 6–13
Stranka modernega centra 10 7 5–8 5–8 5–9 4–10
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 5 4–6 4–7 3–7 0–8
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 4 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.9%  
24 0.6% 99.7%  
25 3% 99.0% Last Result
26 9% 96%  
27 14% 87%  
28 24% 73% Median
29 16% 49%  
30 11% 34%  
31 9% 22%  
32 7% 13%  
33 4% 6%  
34 1.0% 2%  
35 0.6% 0.8%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.8% 99.9%  
12 3% 99.2%  
13 11% 96% Last Result
14 16% 86%  
15 28% 70% Median
16 23% 42%  
17 9% 19%  
18 8% 10%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.5% 0.7%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 3% 99.8%  
9 11% 97%  
10 22% 85% Last Result
11 27% 64% Median
12 22% 37%  
13 11% 15%  
14 4% 5%  
15 0.6% 0.8%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.1% 100%  
7 8% 98.9%  
8 19% 91%  
9 28% 72% Last Result, Median
10 27% 44%  
11 10% 16%  
12 5% 6%  
13 1.0% 1.2%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.4% 100%  
5 11% 98.5%  
6 28% 87%  
7 35% 60% Median
8 20% 25%  
9 4% 5%  
10 1.0% 1.1% Last Result
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 2% 98%  
4 25% 97%  
5 35% 71% Median
6 27% 36%  
7 7% 9% Last Result
8 2% 2%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 18% 100%  
1 0% 82%  
2 0% 82%  
3 8% 82%  
4 45% 74% Median
5 23% 29% Last Result
6 5% 6%  
7 0.9% 0.9%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 24% 100%  
1 0% 76%  
2 0% 76%  
3 8% 76%  
4 43% 68% Last Result, Median
5 21% 25%  
6 4% 4%  
7 0.5% 0.5%  
8 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 44 26% 41–47 41–49 40–50 38–51
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 44 26% 41–47 41–49 40–50 38–51
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 50 42 5% 39–45 38–46 37–47 35–48
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 45 38 0.3% 35–41 34–42 34–43 32–45
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 40 38 0.3% 35–41 34–42 34–43 32–45
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 37 0% 33–40 32–40 32–41 30–43
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 38 33 0% 30–35 29–36 28–37 28–39
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 33 0% 30–35 29–36 28–37 28–39
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 31 0% 29–34 27–35 27–36 26–38
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 31 0% 29–34 27–35 27–36 26–38
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 26 0% 24–29 23–30 22–31 21–32
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 26 0% 24–29 23–30 22–30 21–32
Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 25 18 0% 16–20 15–20 14–21 14–23

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.8%  
39 1.5% 99.4%  
40 3% 98%  
41 8% 95%  
42 10% 87%  
43 27% 77% Last Result, Median
44 12% 50%  
45 12% 38%  
46 10% 26% Majority
47 7% 16%  
48 3% 9%  
49 3% 6%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.7% 1.0%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.8% Last Result
39 1.5% 99.3%  
40 3% 98%  
41 8% 95%  
42 10% 87%  
43 27% 77% Median
44 12% 50%  
45 12% 38%  
46 10% 26% Majority
47 7% 16%  
48 3% 9%  
49 3% 6%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.7% 1.0%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.4% 99.8%  
36 2% 99.4%  
37 2% 98%  
38 5% 96%  
39 10% 90%  
40 9% 80%  
41 18% 71%  
42 16% 53% Median
43 13% 37%  
44 11% 24%  
45 7% 13%  
46 3% 5% Majority
47 2% 3%  
48 0.6% 0.9%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
51 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.5% 99.8%  
33 1.4% 99.3%  
34 5% 98%  
35 6% 93%  
36 9% 87%  
37 18% 79%  
38 17% 61% Median
39 15% 44%  
40 14% 29%  
41 7% 14%  
42 4% 7%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.7% 1.3%  
45 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
46 0.2% 0.3% Majority
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.5% 99.8%  
33 1.4% 99.3%  
34 5% 98%  
35 6% 93%  
36 9% 87%  
37 18% 79%  
38 17% 61% Median
39 15% 44%  
40 14% 28% Last Result
41 7% 14%  
42 4% 7%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.7% 1.2%  
45 0.3% 0.6%  
46 0.2% 0.3% Majority
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 0.4% 99.7%  
31 1.5% 99.3%  
32 3% 98%  
33 6% 95%  
34 8% 89%  
35 10% 81%  
36 16% 71%  
37 18% 55% Median
38 20% 37%  
39 7% 18%  
40 6% 10%  
41 2% 4%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.4% 99.9%  
28 2% 99.5%  
29 4% 97%  
30 6% 94%  
31 7% 87%  
32 18% 81%  
33 17% 62% Median
34 24% 45%  
35 12% 22%  
36 4% 9%  
37 3% 5%  
38 1.1% 2% Last Result
39 0.5% 0.9%  
40 0.2% 0.4%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.4% 99.9%  
28 2% 99.5%  
29 4% 97%  
30 6% 94%  
31 7% 87%  
32 18% 81%  
33 17% 62% Last Result, Median
34 24% 45%  
35 12% 22%  
36 4% 9%  
37 3% 5%  
38 1.1% 2%  
39 0.5% 0.9%  
40 0.2% 0.4%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.1% 99.9%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 0.9% 99.6%  
27 4% 98.7%  
28 3% 95%  
29 10% 92%  
30 17% 82%  
31 18% 65% Median
32 17% 47%  
33 13% 30%  
34 8% 17%  
35 4% 8% Last Result
36 3% 4%  
37 0.6% 1.1%  
38 0.3% 0.5%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.1% 99.9%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 0.9% 99.6%  
27 4% 98.7%  
28 3% 95%  
29 10% 92%  
30 17% 82% Last Result
31 18% 65% Median
32 17% 47%  
33 13% 29%  
34 8% 17%  
35 4% 8%  
36 3% 4%  
37 0.6% 1.1%  
38 0.2% 0.5%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.5% 99.8%  
22 2% 99.3%  
23 6% 97%  
24 8% 91%  
25 14% 82%  
26 25% 68% Median
27 16% 43%  
28 16% 28% Last Result
29 5% 11%  
30 4% 6%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.4% 0.7%  
33 0.3% 0.4%  
34 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.5% 99.8%  
22 2% 99.3%  
23 6% 97% Last Result
24 8% 91%  
25 14% 82%  
26 25% 68% Median
27 16% 43%  
28 16% 28%  
29 5% 11%  
30 4% 6%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.3% 0.7%  
33 0.3% 0.4%  
34 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.3% 99.9%  
14 3% 99.6%  
15 6% 97%  
16 14% 91%  
17 19% 76%  
18 22% 58% Median
19 20% 36%  
20 11% 16%  
21 3% 5%  
22 1.1% 2%  
23 0.4% 0.5%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations