Opinion Poll by Ninamedia for Dnevnik and RTV Slovenija, 12–14 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 29.3% 27.0–31.8% 26.4–32.5% 25.8–33.1% 24.8–34.3%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 13.5% 11.9–15.4% 11.4–16.0% 11.0–16.5% 10.2–17.5%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 10.7% 9.2–12.5% 8.8–13.0% 8.4–13.4% 7.8–14.3%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 10.7% 9.2–12.5% 8.8–13.0% 8.4–13.4% 7.8–14.3%
Levica 9.3% 10.3% 8.9–12.1% 8.5–12.6% 8.1–13.0% 7.5–13.9%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 4.5% 3.6–5.8% 3.3–6.1% 3.1–6.5% 2.7–7.1%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 4.0% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.6% 2.7–5.9% 2.3–6.5%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 3.7% 2.9–4.9% 2.6–5.2% 2.4–5.5% 2.1–6.1%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 3.7% 2.9–4.9% 2.6–5.2% 2.4–5.5% 2.1–6.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 28 26–31 25–32 24–33 23–34
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 13 11–15 10–15 10–16 9–17
Socialni demokrati 10 10 9–12 8–12 8–13 7–14
Stranka modernega centra 10 10 8–12 8–12 8–13 7–14
Levica 9 10 8–11 8–12 7–12 7–14
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 4 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 0.7% 99.8%  
24 2% 99.0%  
25 6% 97% Last Result
26 12% 90%  
27 12% 79%  
28 18% 67% Median
29 24% 48%  
30 7% 25%  
31 11% 18%  
32 4% 7%  
33 1.4% 3%  
34 0.9% 1.1%  
35 0.2% 0.3%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.7% 100%  
10 4% 99.3%  
11 13% 95%  
12 22% 82%  
13 27% 60% Last Result, Median
14 16% 33%  
15 13% 17%  
16 3% 4%  
17 0.7% 0.9%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 1.1% 99.9%  
8 8% 98.8%  
9 28% 90%  
10 28% 62% Last Result, Median
11 16% 34%  
12 15% 18%  
13 3% 3%  
14 0.5% 0.6%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 1.0% 99.9%  
8 10% 99.0%  
9 25% 89%  
10 30% 64% Last Result, Median
11 21% 34%  
12 10% 13%  
13 3% 3%  
14 0.7% 0.8%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 3% 99.8%  
8 10% 96%  
9 31% 86% Last Result
10 28% 56% Median
11 18% 27%  
12 7% 9%  
13 1.4% 2%  
14 0.5% 0.5%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 25% 100%  
1 0% 75%  
2 0% 75%  
3 4% 75%  
4 41% 71% Median
5 26% 30% Last Result
6 4% 4%  
7 0.4% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 52% 100% Median
1 0% 48%  
2 0% 48%  
3 9% 48%  
4 28% 39% Last Result
5 9% 11%  
6 1.4% 1.5%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 77% 100% Median
1 0% 23%  
2 0% 23%  
3 0.4% 23%  
4 20% 22%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 59% 100% Median
1 0% 41%  
2 0% 41%  
3 5% 41%  
4 30% 36%  
5 6% 6% Last Result
6 0.3% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 43 14% 39–46 38–47 38–48 36–51
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 41 5% 38–45 37–45 36–46 35–48
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 50 39 0.5% 35–42 34–43 33–44 32–45
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 38 0.1% 35–41 33–42 33–43 31–45
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 45 36 0% 32–39 31–40 31–41 29–43
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 38 35 0% 31–38 31–39 30–40 28–41
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 40 34 0% 31–37 30–38 29–39 28–40
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 33 0% 30–36 29–37 28–38 28–40
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 35 26 0% 22–29 21–30 21–31 20–32
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 24 0% 22–27 21–29 20–30 19–30
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 24 0% 21–27 20–28 20–28 19–30
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 23 0% 20–26 20–27 19–27 18–28
Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 25 22 0% 19–25 18–26 17–27 17–28

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.6% 99.7%  
37 1.3% 99.1%  
38 4% 98%  
39 5% 93%  
40 10% 88%  
41 10% 78% Median
42 8% 68%  
43 13% 61% Last Result
44 21% 48%  
45 13% 27%  
46 8% 14% Majority
47 2% 6%  
48 1.3% 3%  
49 0.5% 2%  
50 0.6% 1.4%  
51 0.5% 0.8%  
52 0.4% 0.4%  
53 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.6% 99.7%  
36 2% 99.1%  
37 4% 97%  
38 7% 93% Last Result
39 11% 86%  
40 16% 75%  
41 17% 59% Median
42 11% 42%  
43 7% 31%  
44 13% 23%  
45 5% 10%  
46 3% 5% Majority
47 1.1% 2%  
48 0.9% 1.1%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.7% 99.7%  
33 3% 99.1%  
34 1.5% 96%  
35 7% 94%  
36 4% 87%  
37 10% 83% Median
38 14% 73%  
39 19% 60%  
40 15% 41%  
41 9% 26%  
42 9% 16%  
43 4% 7%  
44 1.4% 3%  
45 1.1% 2%  
46 0.3% 0.5% Majority
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.7% 99.7%  
32 1.3% 99.0%  
33 4% 98%  
34 3% 94%  
35 8% 90%  
36 10% 82%  
37 11% 72% Median
38 16% 61%  
39 20% 45%  
40 10% 26%  
41 8% 16%  
42 5% 8%  
43 2% 3% Last Result
44 0.7% 1.4%  
45 0.7% 0.8%  
46 0% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0.4% 99.8%  
30 2% 99.4%  
31 4% 98%  
32 5% 94%  
33 11% 89% Median
34 11% 78%  
35 16% 66%  
36 17% 50%  
37 11% 33%  
38 7% 22%  
39 8% 15%  
40 4% 8%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.5% 1.0%  
43 0.4% 0.5%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.6% 99.8%  
29 1.0% 99.3%  
30 3% 98%  
31 6% 95%  
32 8% 90%  
33 16% 81% Median
34 13% 65%  
35 17% 53%  
36 16% 36%  
37 6% 20%  
38 5% 13% Last Result
39 5% 9%  
40 2% 4%  
41 2% 2%  
42 0.1% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.8% 99.8%  
29 2% 99.1%  
30 7% 97%  
31 10% 90%  
32 11% 80%  
33 14% 69% Median
34 13% 56%  
35 14% 43%  
36 13% 29%  
37 8% 16%  
38 4% 8%  
39 2% 4%  
40 1.5% 2% Last Result
41 0.3% 0.4%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.3% 99.9%  
28 2% 99.6%  
29 3% 97%  
30 9% 94%  
31 12% 85%  
32 15% 73%  
33 18% 58% Last Result, Median
34 13% 40%  
35 12% 27%  
36 9% 15%  
37 3% 6%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.4% 1.2%  
40 0.8% 0.8%  
41 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.4% 99.9%  
20 2% 99.5%  
21 4% 98%  
22 5% 94%  
23 11% 89% Median
24 15% 78%  
25 10% 63%  
26 17% 53%  
27 18% 37%  
28 7% 18%  
29 3% 12%  
30 6% 9%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.6% 0.9%  
33 0.2% 0.3%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.3% 100%  
19 0.6% 99.7%  
20 3% 99.0%  
21 6% 96%  
22 9% 90%  
23 17% 82% Median
24 17% 65%  
25 10% 49%  
26 15% 39%  
27 13% 23%  
28 4% 10% Last Result
29 2% 6%  
30 3% 4%  
31 0.3% 0.5%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100%  
18 0.4% 99.9%  
19 2% 99.6%  
20 4% 98%  
21 10% 93%  
22 14% 84%  
23 17% 70% Median
24 16% 53%  
25 9% 37%  
26 10% 27%  
27 11% 18%  
28 4% 6%  
29 1.4% 2%  
30 0.5% 0.9% Last Result
31 0.3% 0.4%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.7% 99.9%  
19 3% 99.2%  
20 7% 97%  
21 12% 90%  
22 19% 78%  
23 22% 59% Last Result, Median
24 17% 36%  
25 8% 19%  
26 5% 11%  
27 5% 7%  
28 1.2% 1.4%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.4% 99.9%  
17 3% 99.5%  
18 3% 96%  
19 10% 93%  
20 17% 83% Median
21 16% 66%  
22 10% 50%  
23 21% 40%  
24 5% 19%  
25 6% 14% Last Result
26 3% 8%  
27 3% 5%  
28 1.3% 2%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations