Opinion Poll by Ninamedia for Dnevnik and RTV Slovenija, 12–14 June 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 24.9% | 29.3% | 27.0–31.8% | 26.4–32.5% | 25.8–33.1% | 24.8–34.3% |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 12.6% | 13.5% | 11.9–15.4% | 11.4–16.0% | 11.0–16.5% | 10.2–17.5% |
| Socialni demokrati | 9.9% | 10.7% | 9.2–12.5% | 8.8–13.0% | 8.4–13.4% | 7.8–14.3% |
| Stranka modernega centra | 9.7% | 10.7% | 9.2–12.5% | 8.8–13.0% | 8.4–13.4% | 7.8–14.3% |
| Levica | 9.3% | 10.3% | 8.9–12.1% | 8.5–12.6% | 8.1–13.0% | 7.5–13.9% |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.6–5.8% | 3.3–6.1% | 3.1–6.5% | 2.7–7.1% |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.6% | 2.7–5.9% | 2.3–6.5% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7.2% | 3.7% | 2.9–4.9% | 2.6–5.2% | 2.4–5.5% | 2.1–6.1% |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.9–4.9% | 2.6–5.2% | 2.4–5.5% | 2.1–6.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 25 | 28 | 26–31 | 25–32 | 24–33 | 23–34 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 13 | 13 | 11–15 | 10–15 | 10–16 | 9–17 |
| Socialni demokrati | 10 | 10 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 7–14 |
| Stranka modernega centra | 10 | 10 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 7–14 |
| Levica | 9 | 10 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 7–12 | 7–14 |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5 | 4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4 | 0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 5 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 24 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 25 | 6% | 97% | Last Result |
| 26 | 12% | 90% | |
| 27 | 12% | 79% | |
| 28 | 18% | 67% | Median |
| 29 | 24% | 48% | |
| 30 | 7% | 25% | |
| 31 | 11% | 18% | |
| 32 | 4% | 7% | |
| 33 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 34 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 10 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 11 | 13% | 95% | |
| 12 | 22% | 82% | |
| 13 | 27% | 60% | Last Result, Median |
| 14 | 16% | 33% | |
| 15 | 13% | 17% | |
| 16 | 3% | 4% | |
| 17 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 8% | 98.8% | |
| 9 | 28% | 90% | |
| 10 | 28% | 62% | Last Result, Median |
| 11 | 16% | 34% | |
| 12 | 15% | 18% | |
| 13 | 3% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka modernega centra
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 10% | 99.0% | |
| 9 | 25% | 89% | |
| 10 | 30% | 64% | Last Result, Median |
| 11 | 21% | 34% | |
| 12 | 10% | 13% | |
| 13 | 3% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Levica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 10% | 96% | |
| 9 | 31% | 86% | Last Result |
| 10 | 28% | 56% | Median |
| 11 | 18% | 27% | |
| 12 | 7% | 9% | |
| 13 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka Alenke Bratušek
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 25% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 75% | |
| 2 | 0% | 75% | |
| 3 | 4% | 75% | |
| 4 | 41% | 71% | Median |
| 5 | 26% | 30% | Last Result |
| 6 | 4% | 4% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 52% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 48% | |
| 2 | 0% | 48% | |
| 3 | 9% | 48% | |
| 4 | 28% | 39% | Last Result |
| 5 | 9% | 11% | |
| 6 | 1.4% | 1.5% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 77% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 23% | |
| 2 | 0% | 23% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 23% | |
| 4 | 20% | 22% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 59% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 41% | |
| 2 | 0% | 41% | |
| 3 | 5% | 41% | |
| 4 | 30% | 36% | |
| 5 | 6% | 6% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 43 | 43 | 14% | 39–46 | 38–47 | 38–48 | 36–51 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca | 38 | 41 | 5% | 38–45 | 37–45 | 36–46 | 35–48 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 50 | 39 | 0.5% | 35–42 | 34–43 | 33–44 | 32–45 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 43 | 38 | 0.1% | 35–41 | 33–42 | 33–43 | 31–45 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 45 | 36 | 0% | 32–39 | 31–40 | 31–41 | 29–43 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 38 | 35 | 0% | 31–38 | 31–39 | 30–40 | 28–41 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 40 | 34 | 0% | 31–37 | 30–38 | 29–39 | 28–40 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra | 33 | 33 | 0% | 30–36 | 29–37 | 28–38 | 28–40 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 35 | 26 | 0% | 22–29 | 21–30 | 21–31 | 20–32 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 28 | 24 | 0% | 22–27 | 21–29 | 20–30 | 19–30 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 30 | 24 | 0% | 21–27 | 20–28 | 20–28 | 19–30 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati | 23 | 23 | 0% | 20–26 | 20–27 | 19–27 | 18–28 |
| Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 25 | 22 | 0% | 19–25 | 18–26 | 17–27 | 17–28 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 37 | 1.3% | 99.1% | |
| 38 | 4% | 98% | |
| 39 | 5% | 93% | |
| 40 | 10% | 88% | |
| 41 | 10% | 78% | Median |
| 42 | 8% | 68% | |
| 43 | 13% | 61% | Last Result |
| 44 | 21% | 48% | |
| 45 | 13% | 27% | |
| 46 | 8% | 14% | Majority |
| 47 | 2% | 6% | |
| 48 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 49 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 50 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 52 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 36 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 37 | 4% | 97% | |
| 38 | 7% | 93% | Last Result |
| 39 | 11% | 86% | |
| 40 | 16% | 75% | |
| 41 | 17% | 59% | Median |
| 42 | 11% | 42% | |
| 43 | 7% | 31% | |
| 44 | 13% | 23% | |
| 45 | 5% | 10% | |
| 46 | 3% | 5% | Majority |
| 47 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 48 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 33 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 34 | 1.5% | 96% | |
| 35 | 7% | 94% | |
| 36 | 4% | 87% | |
| 37 | 10% | 83% | Median |
| 38 | 14% | 73% | |
| 39 | 19% | 60% | |
| 40 | 15% | 41% | |
| 41 | 9% | 26% | |
| 42 | 9% | 16% | |
| 43 | 4% | 7% | |
| 44 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 45 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 0.5% | Majority |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 32 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 33 | 4% | 98% | |
| 34 | 3% | 94% | |
| 35 | 8% | 90% | |
| 36 | 10% | 82% | |
| 37 | 11% | 72% | Median |
| 38 | 16% | 61% | |
| 39 | 20% | 45% | |
| 40 | 10% | 26% | |
| 41 | 8% | 16% | |
| 42 | 5% | 8% | |
| 43 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 45 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 31 | 4% | 98% | |
| 32 | 5% | 94% | |
| 33 | 11% | 89% | Median |
| 34 | 11% | 78% | |
| 35 | 16% | 66% | |
| 36 | 17% | 50% | |
| 37 | 11% | 33% | |
| 38 | 7% | 22% | |
| 39 | 8% | 15% | |
| 40 | 4% | 8% | |
| 41 | 2% | 3% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 43 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 30 | 3% | 98% | |
| 31 | 6% | 95% | |
| 32 | 8% | 90% | |
| 33 | 16% | 81% | Median |
| 34 | 13% | 65% | |
| 35 | 17% | 53% | |
| 36 | 16% | 36% | |
| 37 | 6% | 20% | |
| 38 | 5% | 13% | Last Result |
| 39 | 5% | 9% | |
| 40 | 2% | 4% | |
| 41 | 2% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 30 | 7% | 97% | |
| 31 | 10% | 90% | |
| 32 | 11% | 80% | |
| 33 | 14% | 69% | Median |
| 34 | 13% | 56% | |
| 35 | 14% | 43% | |
| 36 | 13% | 29% | |
| 37 | 8% | 16% | |
| 38 | 4% | 8% | |
| 39 | 2% | 4% | |
| 40 | 1.5% | 2% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 29 | 3% | 97% | |
| 30 | 9% | 94% | |
| 31 | 12% | 85% | |
| 32 | 15% | 73% | |
| 33 | 18% | 58% | Last Result, Median |
| 34 | 13% | 40% | |
| 35 | 12% | 27% | |
| 36 | 9% | 15% | |
| 37 | 3% | 6% | |
| 38 | 2% | 3% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 40 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 21 | 4% | 98% | |
| 22 | 5% | 94% | |
| 23 | 11% | 89% | Median |
| 24 | 15% | 78% | |
| 25 | 10% | 63% | |
| 26 | 17% | 53% | |
| 27 | 18% | 37% | |
| 28 | 7% | 18% | |
| 29 | 3% | 12% | |
| 30 | 6% | 9% | |
| 31 | 2% | 3% | |
| 32 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 20 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 21 | 6% | 96% | |
| 22 | 9% | 90% | |
| 23 | 17% | 82% | Median |
| 24 | 17% | 65% | |
| 25 | 10% | 49% | |
| 26 | 15% | 39% | |
| 27 | 13% | 23% | |
| 28 | 4% | 10% | Last Result |
| 29 | 2% | 6% | |
| 30 | 3% | 4% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 20 | 4% | 98% | |
| 21 | 10% | 93% | |
| 22 | 14% | 84% | |
| 23 | 17% | 70% | Median |
| 24 | 16% | 53% | |
| 25 | 9% | 37% | |
| 26 | 10% | 27% | |
| 27 | 11% | 18% | |
| 28 | 4% | 6% | |
| 29 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0.5% | 0.9% | Last Result |
| 31 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 20 | 7% | 97% | |
| 21 | 12% | 90% | |
| 22 | 19% | 78% | |
| 23 | 22% | 59% | Last Result, Median |
| 24 | 17% | 36% | |
| 25 | 8% | 19% | |
| 26 | 5% | 11% | |
| 27 | 5% | 7% | |
| 28 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 18 | 3% | 96% | |
| 19 | 10% | 93% | |
| 20 | 17% | 83% | Median |
| 21 | 16% | 66% | |
| 22 | 10% | 50% | |
| 23 | 21% | 40% | |
| 24 | 5% | 19% | |
| 25 | 6% | 14% | Last Result |
| 26 | 3% | 8% | |
| 27 | 3% | 5% | |
| 28 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ninamedia
- Commissioner(s): Dnevnik and RTV Slovenija
- Fieldwork period: 12–14 June 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 600
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.58%