Opinion Poll by Mediana for POP TV, 1–23 June 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 24.9% | 32.2% | 29.8–34.7% | 29.1–35.4% | 28.5–36.0% | 27.4–37.3% |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 12.6% | 13.1% | 11.4–15.0% | 11.0–15.5% | 10.6–16.0% | 9.9–17.0% |
| Levica | 9.3% | 10.9% | 9.4–12.7% | 9.0–13.2% | 8.6–13.7% | 8.0–14.6% |
| Socialni demokrati | 9.9% | 10.7% | 9.3–12.5% | 8.8–13.0% | 8.5–13.5% | 7.8–14.4% |
| Stranka modernega centra | 9.7% | 7.2% | 6.0–8.7% | 5.7–9.2% | 5.4–9.6% | 4.9–10.4% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.9–7.5% | 4.6–7.9% | 4.4–8.2% | 3.9–9.0% |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4.2% | 4.9% | 3.9–6.2% | 3.6–6.6% | 3.4–6.9% | 3.0–7.6% |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.6–5.8% | 3.3–6.2% | 3.1–6.5% | 2.7–7.2% |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.7–4.7% | 2.5–5.0% | 2.3–5.3% | 2.0–5.9% |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.8–4.0% | 1.7–4.3% | 1.4–4.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 25 | 31 | 28–34 | 28–35 | 27–37 | 26–38 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 13 | 12 | 11–14 | 10–15 | 10–16 | 9–17 |
| Levica | 9 | 10 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 7–14 |
| Socialni demokrati | 10 | 10 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 7–14 |
| Stranka modernega centra | 10 | 7 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 4–10 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7 | 6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 0–9 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4 | 4 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5 | 4 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 5 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 26 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 27 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 28 | 9% | 97% | |
| 29 | 19% | 88% | |
| 30 | 16% | 69% | |
| 31 | 14% | 53% | Median |
| 32 | 19% | 39% | |
| 33 | 7% | 20% | |
| 34 | 7% | 13% | |
| 35 | 2% | 7% | |
| 36 | 2% | 4% | |
| 37 | 2% | 3% | |
| 38 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 9 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 10 | 7% | 98.6% | |
| 11 | 18% | 91% | |
| 12 | 24% | 73% | Median |
| 13 | 28% | 49% | Last Result |
| 14 | 12% | 21% | |
| 15 | 6% | 9% | |
| 16 | 2% | 3% | |
| 17 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Levica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 1.4% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 8% | 98.6% | |
| 9 | 23% | 91% | Last Result |
| 10 | 26% | 68% | Median |
| 11 | 25% | 41% | |
| 12 | 12% | 17% | |
| 13 | 4% | 5% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 7% | 98% | |
| 9 | 21% | 91% | |
| 10 | 29% | 70% | Last Result, Median |
| 11 | 26% | 40% | |
| 12 | 10% | 15% | |
| 13 | 3% | 5% | |
| 14 | 2% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka modernega centra
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 11% | 98% | |
| 6 | 27% | 87% | |
| 7 | 42% | 60% | Median |
| 8 | 9% | 17% | |
| 9 | 6% | 8% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 4 | 5% | 98.8% | |
| 5 | 38% | 94% | |
| 6 | 45% | 56% | Median |
| 7 | 9% | 11% | Last Result |
| 8 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 82% | |
| 2 | 0% | 82% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 82% | |
| 4 | 37% | 82% | Last Result, Median |
| 5 | 22% | 44% | |
| 6 | 20% | 22% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka Alenke Bratušek
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 29% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 71% | |
| 2 | 0% | 71% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 71% | |
| 4 | 40% | 70% | Median |
| 5 | 24% | 29% | Last Result |
| 6 | 5% | 5% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 64% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 36% | |
| 2 | 0% | 36% | |
| 3 | 4% | 36% | |
| 4 | 27% | 32% | |
| 5 | 4% | 5% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska ljudska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 91% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 9% | |
| 3 | 4% | 9% | |
| 4 | 5% | 5% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 43 | 45 | 37% | 41–49 | 40–50 | 40–51 | 38–54 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca | 38 | 43 | 19% | 40–47 | 40–49 | 39–50 | 37–51 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 50 | 39 | 1.5% | 36–43 | 35–44 | 35–45 | 32–46 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 45 | 36 | 0% | 34–40 | 32–41 | 31–42 | 29–44 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 40 | 35 | 0% | 32–38 | 31–39 | 30–40 | 29–43 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 43 | 34 | 0% | 30–37 | 30–38 | 29–39 | 27–41 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 38 | 31 | 0% | 28–34 | 27–35 | 26–36 | 25–38 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 35 | 29 | 0% | 27–33 | 26–33 | 25–35 | 23–37 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra | 33 | 29 | 0% | 27–32 | 26–33 | 25–34 | 24–36 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 30 | 28 | 0% | 25–31 | 25–32 | 24–33 | 23–36 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 28 | 24 | 0% | 21–27 | 20–28 | 20–29 | 18–31 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati | 23 | 23 | 0% | 20–25 | 20–26 | 19–27 | 18–30 |
| Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 25 | 18 | 0% | 16–22 | 15–22 | 14–23 | 13–24 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 40 | 4% | 98.8% | |
| 41 | 12% | 94% | |
| 42 | 6% | 82% | |
| 43 | 12% | 77% | Last Result, Median |
| 44 | 10% | 65% | |
| 45 | 18% | 54% | |
| 46 | 9% | 37% | Majority |
| 47 | 8% | 28% | |
| 48 | 4% | 20% | |
| 49 | 9% | 16% | |
| 50 | 3% | 7% | |
| 51 | 2% | 4% | |
| 52 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 54 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 1.3% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 39 | 2% | 98% | |
| 40 | 9% | 96% | |
| 41 | 20% | 87% | |
| 42 | 8% | 67% | |
| 43 | 14% | 58% | Median |
| 44 | 8% | 45% | |
| 45 | 17% | 36% | |
| 46 | 6% | 19% | Majority |
| 47 | 5% | 13% | |
| 48 | 2% | 8% | |
| 49 | 3% | 7% | |
| 50 | 3% | 4% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 34 | 0.8% | 98.6% | |
| 35 | 4% | 98% | |
| 36 | 10% | 94% | |
| 37 | 4% | 84% | |
| 38 | 15% | 80% | |
| 39 | 15% | 65% | Median |
| 40 | 12% | 50% | |
| 41 | 16% | 38% | |
| 42 | 5% | 22% | |
| 43 | 10% | 17% | |
| 44 | 4% | 8% | |
| 45 | 2% | 3% | |
| 46 | 1.2% | 1.5% | Majority |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 31 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 32 | 2% | 97% | |
| 33 | 4% | 95% | |
| 34 | 13% | 90% | |
| 35 | 14% | 78% | Median |
| 36 | 17% | 64% | |
| 37 | 15% | 47% | |
| 38 | 15% | 33% | |
| 39 | 7% | 18% | |
| 40 | 5% | 11% | |
| 41 | 2% | 6% | |
| 42 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 43 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 31 | 5% | 97% | |
| 32 | 8% | 92% | |
| 33 | 12% | 84% | |
| 34 | 18% | 72% | |
| 35 | 14% | 54% | Median |
| 36 | 15% | 40% | |
| 37 | 9% | 26% | |
| 38 | 8% | 17% | |
| 39 | 4% | 9% | |
| 40 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 43 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 28 | 1.3% | 98.9% | |
| 29 | 3% | 98% | |
| 30 | 8% | 95% | |
| 31 | 4% | 87% | |
| 32 | 7% | 83% | |
| 33 | 20% | 76% | Median |
| 34 | 13% | 56% | |
| 35 | 11% | 43% | |
| 36 | 15% | 32% | |
| 37 | 7% | 17% | |
| 38 | 6% | 10% | |
| 39 | 2% | 4% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 26 | 2% | 98% | |
| 27 | 3% | 96% | |
| 28 | 8% | 93% | |
| 29 | 15% | 85% | Median |
| 30 | 16% | 70% | |
| 31 | 14% | 53% | |
| 32 | 14% | 39% | |
| 33 | 13% | 25% | |
| 34 | 7% | 12% | |
| 35 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 36 | 2% | 4% | |
| 37 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 38 | 1.0% | 1.2% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 24 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 25 | 2% | 98% | |
| 26 | 3% | 96% | |
| 27 | 9% | 93% | |
| 28 | 19% | 84% | Median |
| 29 | 16% | 65% | |
| 30 | 9% | 49% | |
| 31 | 15% | 40% | |
| 32 | 13% | 24% | |
| 33 | 7% | 12% | |
| 34 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 35 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 36 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 37 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 26 | 4% | 96% | |
| 27 | 10% | 92% | |
| 28 | 16% | 82% | |
| 29 | 22% | 66% | Median |
| 30 | 16% | 44% | |
| 31 | 11% | 28% | |
| 32 | 8% | 17% | |
| 33 | 5% | 9% | Last Result |
| 34 | 2% | 4% | |
| 35 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 36 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 24 | 3% | 98% | |
| 25 | 8% | 95% | |
| 26 | 6% | 88% | |
| 27 | 16% | 81% | |
| 28 | 25% | 65% | Median |
| 29 | 16% | 40% | |
| 30 | 8% | 25% | Last Result |
| 31 | 8% | 17% | |
| 32 | 5% | 9% | |
| 33 | 3% | 4% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 20 | 3% | 98% | |
| 21 | 6% | 95% | |
| 22 | 15% | 89% | Median |
| 23 | 20% | 74% | |
| 24 | 13% | 54% | |
| 25 | 9% | 41% | |
| 26 | 14% | 32% | |
| 27 | 13% | 18% | |
| 28 | 2% | 5% | Last Result |
| 29 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 30 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 31 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 19 | 3% | 98% | |
| 20 | 9% | 96% | |
| 21 | 10% | 86% | |
| 22 | 23% | 77% | Median |
| 23 | 28% | 54% | Last Result |
| 24 | 10% | 26% | |
| 25 | 7% | 16% | |
| 26 | 5% | 9% | |
| 27 | 2% | 4% | |
| 28 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 30 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 15 | 6% | 97% | |
| 16 | 13% | 91% | |
| 17 | 17% | 78% | Median |
| 18 | 20% | 61% | |
| 19 | 11% | 40% | |
| 20 | 10% | 30% | |
| 21 | 5% | 20% | |
| 22 | 10% | 14% | |
| 23 | 3% | 4% | |
| 24 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 26 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Mediana
- Commissioner(s): POP TV
- Fieldwork period: 1–23 June 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 597
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.68%