Opinion Poll by Mediana for POP TV, 1–23 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 32.2% 29.8–34.7% 29.1–35.4% 28.5–36.0% 27.4–37.3%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 13.1% 11.4–15.0% 11.0–15.5% 10.6–16.0% 9.9–17.0%
Levica 9.3% 10.9% 9.4–12.7% 9.0–13.2% 8.6–13.7% 8.0–14.6%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 10.7% 9.3–12.5% 8.8–13.0% 8.5–13.5% 7.8–14.4%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 7.2% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.2% 5.4–9.6% 4.9–10.4%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 6.0% 4.9–7.5% 4.6–7.9% 4.4–8.2% 3.9–9.0%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 4.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.6–6.6% 3.4–6.9% 3.0–7.6%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 4.5% 3.6–5.8% 3.3–6.2% 3.1–6.5% 2.7–7.2%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 3.5% 2.7–4.7% 2.5–5.0% 2.3–5.3% 2.0–5.9%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 2.7% 2.0–3.7% 1.8–4.0% 1.7–4.3% 1.4–4.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 31 28–34 28–35 27–37 26–38
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 12 11–14 10–15 10–16 9–17
Levica 9 10 9–12 8–12 8–13 7–14
Socialni demokrati 10 10 9–12 8–12 8–13 7–14
Stranka modernega centra 10 7 5–8 5–9 5–9 4–10
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 6 5–7 4–7 4–7 0–9
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 4 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–6
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0–3 0–4 0–4

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
26 0.9% 99.7%  
27 2% 98.8%  
28 9% 97%  
29 19% 88%  
30 16% 69%  
31 14% 53% Median
32 19% 39%  
33 7% 20%  
34 7% 13%  
35 2% 7%  
36 2% 4%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.9% 0.9%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.3% 100%  
9 1.0% 99.7%  
10 7% 98.6%  
11 18% 91%  
12 24% 73% Median
13 28% 49% Last Result
14 12% 21%  
15 6% 9%  
16 2% 3%  
17 0.7% 0.8%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 1.4% 99.9%  
8 8% 98.6%  
9 23% 91% Last Result
10 26% 68% Median
11 25% 41%  
12 12% 17%  
13 4% 5%  
14 0.7% 0.9%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 2% 99.9%  
8 7% 98%  
9 21% 91%  
10 29% 70% Last Result, Median
11 26% 40%  
12 10% 15%  
13 3% 5%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.1% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 2% 100%  
5 11% 98%  
6 27% 87%  
7 42% 60% Median
8 9% 17%  
9 6% 8%  
10 2% 2% Last Result
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100%  
1 0% 98.8%  
2 0% 98.8%  
3 0% 98.8%  
4 5% 98.8%  
5 38% 94%  
6 45% 56% Median
7 9% 11% Last Result
8 1.3% 2%  
9 0.6% 0.6%  
10 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 18% 100%  
1 0% 82%  
2 0% 82%  
3 0.4% 82%  
4 37% 82% Last Result, Median
5 22% 44%  
6 20% 22%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 29% 100%  
1 0% 71%  
2 0% 71%  
3 1.0% 71%  
4 40% 70% Median
5 24% 29% Last Result
6 5% 5%  
7 0.3% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 64% 100% Median
1 0% 36%  
2 0% 36%  
3 4% 36%  
4 27% 32%  
5 4% 5% Last Result
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 9%  
2 0% 9%  
3 4% 9%  
4 5% 5%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 45 37% 41–49 40–50 40–51 38–54
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 43 19% 40–47 40–49 39–50 37–51
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 50 39 1.5% 36–43 35–44 35–45 32–46
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 45 36 0% 34–40 32–41 31–42 29–44
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 40 35 0% 32–38 31–39 30–40 29–43
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 34 0% 30–37 30–38 29–39 27–41
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 38 31 0% 28–34 27–35 26–36 25–38
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 29 0% 27–33 26–33 25–35 23–37
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 29 0% 27–32 26–33 25–34 24–36
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 28 0% 25–31 25–32 24–33 23–36
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 24 0% 21–27 20–28 20–29 18–31
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 23 0% 20–25 20–26 19–27 18–30
Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 25 18 0% 16–22 15–22 14–23 13–24

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.4% 99.9%  
39 0.7% 99.5%  
40 4% 98.8%  
41 12% 94%  
42 6% 82%  
43 12% 77% Last Result, Median
44 10% 65%  
45 18% 54%  
46 9% 37% Majority
47 8% 28%  
48 4% 20%  
49 9% 16%  
50 3% 7%  
51 2% 4%  
52 0.4% 1.4%  
53 0.2% 1.0%  
54 0.8% 0.8%  
55 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 1.3% 99.5% Last Result
39 2% 98%  
40 9% 96%  
41 20% 87%  
42 8% 67%  
43 14% 58% Median
44 8% 45%  
45 17% 36%  
46 6% 19% Majority
47 5% 13%  
48 2% 8%  
49 3% 7%  
50 3% 4%  
51 0.3% 0.8%  
52 0.3% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.3% 99.8%  
33 0.9% 99.5%  
34 0.8% 98.6%  
35 4% 98%  
36 10% 94%  
37 4% 84%  
38 15% 80%  
39 15% 65% Median
40 12% 50%  
41 16% 38%  
42 5% 22%  
43 10% 17%  
44 4% 8%  
45 2% 3%  
46 1.2% 1.5% Majority
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.4% 99.9%  
30 0.7% 99.5%  
31 2% 98.7%  
32 2% 97%  
33 4% 95%  
34 13% 90%  
35 14% 78% Median
36 17% 64%  
37 15% 47%  
38 15% 33%  
39 7% 18%  
40 5% 11%  
41 2% 6%  
42 1.3% 4%  
43 1.4% 2%  
44 0.9% 1.1%  
45 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
46 0% 0% Majority

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.9% 99.7%  
30 2% 98.8%  
31 5% 97%  
32 8% 92%  
33 12% 84%  
34 18% 72%  
35 14% 54% Median
36 15% 40%  
37 9% 26%  
38 8% 17%  
39 4% 9%  
40 2% 4% Last Result
41 0.7% 2%  
42 0.4% 1.4%  
43 1.0% 1.1%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.8% 99.8%  
28 1.3% 98.9%  
29 3% 98%  
30 8% 95%  
31 4% 87%  
32 7% 83%  
33 20% 76% Median
34 13% 56%  
35 11% 43%  
36 15% 32%  
37 7% 17%  
38 6% 10%  
39 2% 4%  
40 0.7% 2%  
41 0.7% 0.9%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0% 0.1% Last Result
44 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.3% 99.9%  
25 1.2% 99.6%  
26 2% 98%  
27 3% 96%  
28 8% 93%  
29 15% 85% Median
30 16% 70%  
31 14% 53%  
32 14% 39%  
33 13% 25%  
34 7% 12%  
35 1.4% 6%  
36 2% 4%  
37 0.5% 2%  
38 1.0% 1.2% Last Result
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.7% 99.8%  
24 1.0% 99.2%  
25 2% 98%  
26 3% 96%  
27 9% 93%  
28 19% 84% Median
29 16% 65%  
30 9% 49%  
31 15% 40%  
32 13% 24%  
33 7% 12%  
34 1.2% 5%  
35 2% 4% Last Result
36 0.5% 2%  
37 1.2% 1.4%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0.9% 99.8%  
25 3% 98.9%  
26 4% 96%  
27 10% 92%  
28 16% 82%  
29 22% 66% Median
30 16% 44%  
31 11% 28%  
32 8% 17%  
33 5% 9% Last Result
34 2% 4%  
35 0.5% 2%  
36 1.3% 1.4%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.3% 99.9%  
23 1.2% 99.6%  
24 3% 98%  
25 8% 95%  
26 6% 88%  
27 16% 81%  
28 25% 65% Median
29 16% 40%  
30 8% 25% Last Result
31 8% 17%  
32 5% 9%  
33 3% 4%  
34 0.3% 2%  
35 0.6% 1.3%  
36 0.2% 0.7%  
37 0.4% 0.5%  
38 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.4% 99.9%  
19 2% 99.5%  
20 3% 98%  
21 6% 95%  
22 15% 89% Median
23 20% 74%  
24 13% 54%  
25 9% 41%  
26 14% 32%  
27 13% 18%  
28 2% 5% Last Result
29 1.2% 3%  
30 1.0% 2%  
31 0.9% 1.1%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 2% 99.8%  
19 3% 98%  
20 9% 96%  
21 10% 86%  
22 23% 77% Median
23 28% 54% Last Result
24 10% 26%  
25 7% 16%  
26 5% 9%  
27 2% 4%  
28 0.8% 2%  
29 0.3% 0.8%  
30 0.5% 0.5%  
31 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 0.5% 99.8%  
14 2% 99.3%  
15 6% 97%  
16 13% 91%  
17 17% 78% Median
18 20% 61%  
19 11% 40%  
20 10% 30%  
21 5% 20%  
22 10% 14%  
23 3% 4%  
24 0.7% 1.1%  
25 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations