Opinion Poll by Ninamedia for Dnevnik and RTV Slovenija, 10–12 July 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 24.9% | 29.3% | 27.0–31.7% | 26.3–32.4% | 25.8–33.0% | 24.7–34.2% |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 12.6% | 12.4% | 10.8–14.3% | 10.4–14.8% | 10.0–15.3% | 9.3–16.2% |
| Socialni demokrati | 9.9% | 10.2% | 8.8–12.0% | 8.4–12.5% | 8.1–12.9% | 7.4–13.8% |
| Stranka modernega centra | 9.7% | 10.2% | 8.8–12.0% | 8.4–12.5% | 8.1–12.9% | 7.4–13.8% |
| Levica | 9.3% | 8.8% | 7.4–10.4% | 7.1–10.9% | 6.8–11.3% | 6.2–12.1% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.6–7.0% | 4.3–7.4% | 4.1–7.8% | 3.6–8.5% |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.8–4.8% | 2.6–5.2% | 2.4–5.5% | 2.1–6.1% |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–5.0% | 2.3–5.3% | 2.0–5.9% |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.8–3.5% | 1.7–3.8% | 1.5–4.1% | 1.2–4.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 25 | 28 | 26–30 | 25–31 | 24–32 | 23–34 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 13 | 12 | 10–13 | 10–14 | 9–14 | 8–15 |
| Socialni demokrati | 10 | 10 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–12 | 7–13 |
| Stranka modernega centra | 10 | 10 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 7–12 | 7–13 |
| Levica | 9 | 8 | 7–9 | 6–10 | 6–11 | 6–11 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 0–8 |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 5 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 25 | 6% | 97% | Last Result |
| 26 | 11% | 91% | |
| 27 | 15% | 80% | |
| 28 | 27% | 65% | Median |
| 29 | 14% | 38% | |
| 30 | 16% | 25% | |
| 31 | 4% | 9% | |
| 32 | 3% | 4% | |
| 33 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 9 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 10 | 11% | 96% | |
| 11 | 25% | 85% | |
| 12 | 18% | 60% | Median |
| 13 | 36% | 42% | Last Result |
| 14 | 5% | 6% | |
| 15 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 7 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 8 | 17% | 97% | |
| 9 | 19% | 81% | |
| 10 | 45% | 62% | Last Result, Median |
| 11 | 12% | 17% | |
| 12 | 4% | 5% | |
| 13 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka modernega centra
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 7 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 8 | 11% | 97% | |
| 9 | 23% | 85% | |
| 10 | 40% | 62% | Last Result, Median |
| 11 | 16% | 23% | |
| 12 | 5% | 6% | |
| 13 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Levica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 5% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 22% | 95% | |
| 8 | 27% | 73% | Median |
| 9 | 37% | 46% | Last Result |
| 10 | 6% | 9% | |
| 11 | 3% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 98% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 4 | 20% | 98% | |
| 5 | 50% | 78% | Median |
| 6 | 21% | 28% | |
| 7 | 5% | 6% | Last Result |
| 8 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 71% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 29% | |
| 2 | 0% | 29% | |
| 3 | 2% | 29% | |
| 4 | 22% | 26% | |
| 5 | 4% | 4% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka Alenke Bratušek
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 74% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 26% | |
| 2 | 0% | 26% | |
| 3 | 3% | 26% | |
| 4 | 21% | 23% | |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.3% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 43 | 41 | 3% | 38–44 | 37–45 | 36–46 | 36–48 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca | 38 | 40 | 0.4% | 37–43 | 36–43 | 36–44 | 34–45 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 50 | 38 | 0.1% | 36–41 | 35–42 | 34–43 | 33–44 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 45 | 37 | 0% | 35–41 | 34–41 | 33–42 | 32–43 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 40 | 37 | 0% | 33–39 | 32–39 | 32–40 | 30–42 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 43 | 33 | 0% | 31–36 | 29–38 | 29–38 | 28–40 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 38 | 32 | 0% | 29–36 | 29–36 | 28–37 | 27–38 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra | 33 | 31 | 0% | 28–34 | 28–34 | 27–35 | 26–36 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 35 | 28 | 0% | 25–31 | 24–31 | 24–32 | 22–34 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 30 | 27 | 0% | 24–28 | 23–29 | 23–30 | 21–31 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 28 | 23 | 0% | 20–26 | 19–27 | 18–27 | 17–28 |
| Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 25 | 20 | 0% | 18–24 | 17–24 | 17–25 | 16–26 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati | 23 | 22 | 0% | 19–23 | 18–24 | 18–24 | 17–26 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 36 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 37 | 3% | 96% | |
| 38 | 8% | 93% | |
| 39 | 9% | 85% | |
| 40 | 10% | 76% | Median |
| 41 | 22% | 67% | |
| 42 | 16% | 44% | |
| 43 | 16% | 29% | Last Result |
| 44 | 6% | 13% | |
| 45 | 4% | 7% | |
| 46 | 2% | 3% | Majority |
| 47 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 48 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 35 | 1.4% | 99.1% | |
| 36 | 6% | 98% | |
| 37 | 5% | 92% | |
| 38 | 15% | 87% | Last Result |
| 39 | 13% | 71% | |
| 40 | 11% | 58% | Median |
| 41 | 22% | 47% | |
| 42 | 9% | 24% | |
| 43 | 12% | 16% | |
| 44 | 2% | 4% | |
| 45 | 2% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 0.4% | Majority |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 34 | 3% | 98% | |
| 35 | 3% | 96% | |
| 36 | 9% | 92% | |
| 37 | 16% | 84% | Median |
| 38 | 21% | 68% | |
| 39 | 17% | 47% | |
| 40 | 7% | 30% | |
| 41 | 14% | 23% | |
| 42 | 4% | 9% | |
| 43 | 3% | 4% | |
| 44 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 32 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 33 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 34 | 5% | 96% | |
| 35 | 10% | 91% | |
| 36 | 10% | 81% | |
| 37 | 22% | 71% | Median |
| 38 | 22% | 49% | |
| 39 | 12% | 28% | |
| 40 | 5% | 16% | |
| 41 | 7% | 10% | |
| 42 | 2% | 4% | |
| 43 | 2% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 32 | 3% | 98% | |
| 33 | 6% | 95% | |
| 34 | 9% | 89% | |
| 35 | 14% | 80% | |
| 36 | 11% | 66% | |
| 37 | 24% | 55% | Median |
| 38 | 17% | 30% | |
| 39 | 9% | 13% | |
| 40 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 41 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 29 | 4% | 98% | |
| 30 | 4% | 94% | |
| 31 | 7% | 91% | |
| 32 | 15% | 84% | Median |
| 33 | 24% | 69% | |
| 34 | 12% | 45% | |
| 35 | 15% | 33% | |
| 36 | 8% | 17% | |
| 37 | 4% | 9% | |
| 38 | 3% | 5% | |
| 39 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 28 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 29 | 6% | 96% | |
| 30 | 6% | 90% | |
| 31 | 17% | 83% | |
| 32 | 17% | 66% | Median |
| 33 | 23% | 49% | |
| 34 | 11% | 26% | |
| 35 | 5% | 15% | |
| 36 | 6% | 10% | |
| 37 | 2% | 4% | |
| 38 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 27 | 2% | 98% | |
| 28 | 6% | 96% | |
| 29 | 12% | 90% | |
| 30 | 10% | 78% | |
| 31 | 19% | 69% | |
| 32 | 19% | 49% | Median |
| 33 | 19% | 30% | Last Result |
| 34 | 8% | 11% | |
| 35 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 36 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 24 | 4% | 98% | |
| 25 | 8% | 93% | |
| 26 | 8% | 85% | |
| 27 | 20% | 77% | Median |
| 28 | 31% | 56% | |
| 29 | 7% | 26% | |
| 30 | 6% | 19% | |
| 31 | 9% | 13% | |
| 32 | 3% | 4% | |
| 33 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 34 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 22 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 23 | 5% | 98% | |
| 24 | 9% | 93% | |
| 25 | 12% | 84% | |
| 26 | 11% | 71% | |
| 27 | 23% | 61% | Median |
| 28 | 30% | 37% | |
| 29 | 4% | 8% | |
| 30 | 3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 31 | 1.1% | 1.5% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 19 | 4% | 97% | |
| 20 | 6% | 94% | |
| 21 | 18% | 88% | |
| 22 | 12% | 70% | Median |
| 23 | 35% | 59% | |
| 24 | 7% | 24% | |
| 25 | 5% | 17% | |
| 26 | 7% | 13% | |
| 27 | 4% | 5% | |
| 28 | 0.9% | 1.3% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 17 | 4% | 98.8% | |
| 18 | 11% | 95% | |
| 19 | 17% | 84% | |
| 20 | 25% | 67% | Median |
| 21 | 13% | 42% | |
| 22 | 11% | 29% | |
| 23 | 5% | 18% | |
| 24 | 9% | 13% | |
| 25 | 3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 26 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 19 | 11% | 95% | |
| 20 | 10% | 84% | |
| 21 | 21% | 74% | |
| 22 | 16% | 54% | Median |
| 23 | 32% | 38% | Last Result |
| 24 | 3% | 5% | |
| 25 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ninamedia
- Commissioner(s): Dnevnik and RTV Slovenija
- Fieldwork period: 10–12 July 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 605
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.94%