Opinion Poll by Mediana for POP TV, 29 July 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 29.1% 26.7–31.7% 26.0–32.5% 25.4–33.1% 24.3–34.4%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 15.1% 13.3–17.3% 12.8–17.9% 12.3–18.4% 11.5–19.5%
Levica 9.3% 10.8% 9.2–12.7% 8.8–13.2% 8.4–13.7% 7.7–14.7%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 10.2% 8.7–12.1% 8.3–12.6% 7.9–13.1% 7.2–14.0%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 7.4% 6.1–9.0% 5.7–9.5% 5.4–9.9% 4.9–10.8%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 7.0% 5.8–8.6% 5.4–9.1% 5.1–9.5% 4.6–10.3%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 5.9% 4.7–7.4% 4.4–7.8% 4.2–8.2% 3.7–9.0%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 5.5% 4.4–7.0% 4.1–7.4% 3.8–7.8% 3.4–8.5%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 2.5% 1.8–3.6% 1.6–3.9% 1.4–4.2% 1.2–4.8%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 1.5% 1.0–2.5% 0.9–2.7% 0.8–3.0% 0.6–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 27 25–30 24–31 23–31 22–34
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 14 12–16 12–17 11–18 10–18
Levica 9 10 9–12 8–13 8–13 7–14
Socialni demokrati 10 9 8–11 7–12 7–12 6–13
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 6 5–8 5–9 5–9 4–10
Stranka modernega centra 10 6 5–8 5–8 4–9 4–10
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 5 4–7 4–7 3–7 0–8
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 5 4–6 4–7 0–7 0–8
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0 0 0–3 0–4
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.6% 99.9%  
23 2% 99.4%  
24 6% 97%  
25 5% 91% Last Result
26 13% 86%  
27 35% 74% Median
28 18% 39%  
29 9% 21%  
30 6% 12%  
31 4% 6%  
32 1.3% 2%  
33 0.3% 0.8%  
34 0.4% 0.5%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.7% 100%  
11 3% 99.2%  
12 10% 96%  
13 18% 86% Last Result
14 32% 68% Median
15 14% 36%  
16 14% 21%  
17 4% 7%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0.3% 0.4%  
20 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 2% 99.8%  
8 7% 98%  
9 18% 91% Last Result
10 35% 73% Median
11 25% 38%  
12 7% 13%  
13 5% 6%  
14 1.2% 1.3%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.9% 100%  
7 6% 99.1%  
8 25% 93%  
9 34% 68% Median
10 18% 34% Last Result
11 10% 16%  
12 4% 5%  
13 1.1% 1.3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100%  
4 1.3% 99.9%  
5 26% 98.6%  
6 32% 73% Median
7 21% 41% Last Result
8 12% 20%  
9 6% 8%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0.1% 99.9%  
4 3% 99.9%  
5 18% 97%  
6 42% 78% Median
7 20% 37%  
8 13% 16%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0.5% 98%  
4 19% 97% Last Result
5 38% 78% Median
6 28% 40%  
7 10% 12%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.2% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0.6% 96%  
4 27% 96%  
5 47% 68% Last Result, Median
6 16% 21%  
7 5% 6%  
8 0.6% 0.7%  
9 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 1.3% 3%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 50 41 3% 38–44 38–45 37–46 35–48
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 41 4% 39–44 38–45 37–46 36–49
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 41 3% 39–44 38–45 37–46 36–49
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 45 36 0% 33–39 33–40 32–41 30–43
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 36 0% 33–39 33–40 32–41 30–43
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 34 0% 31–37 31–38 30–39 29–41
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 30 0% 27–32 27–34 26–34 25–36
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 38 30 0% 27–32 26–33 26–34 24–36
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 30 0% 27–32 27–33 26–34 25–36
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 30 0% 27–32 26–33 26–34 24–36
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 23 0% 21–26 20–26 20–27 19–29
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 23 0% 21–26 20–26 20–27 18–29
Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 25 15 0% 14–19 13–19 13–20 12–21

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.6% 99.8%  
36 1.5% 99.1%  
37 2% 98%  
38 6% 95%  
39 20% 90%  
40 12% 70% Median
41 19% 58%  
42 14% 39%  
43 13% 25%  
44 5% 12%  
45 4% 7%  
46 2% 3% Majority
47 0.6% 1.2%  
48 0.4% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0.1% Last Result
51 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.7% 99.8%  
37 3% 99.1%  
38 3% 97%  
39 10% 94%  
40 12% 84%  
41 27% 71% Median
42 10% 44%  
43 18% 35% Last Result
44 7% 17%  
45 6% 10%  
46 2% 4% Majority
47 1.0% 2%  
48 0.3% 0.8%  
49 0.2% 0.5%  
50 0.2% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.8% 99.7%  
37 3% 98.9%  
38 3% 96% Last Result
39 10% 93%  
40 13% 82%  
41 27% 69% Median
42 9% 42%  
43 17% 33%  
44 7% 16%  
45 6% 9%  
46 2% 3% Majority
47 0.8% 2%  
48 0.3% 0.8%  
49 0.2% 0.5%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.5% 99.9%  
31 0.9% 99.5%  
32 2% 98.6%  
33 8% 96%  
34 17% 88%  
35 8% 71% Median
36 21% 64%  
37 12% 43%  
38 18% 31%  
39 5% 12%  
40 3% 7%  
41 2% 4%  
42 0.8% 2%  
43 0.5% 0.8%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
46 0% 0% Majority

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.5% 99.9%  
31 1.0% 99.5%  
32 2% 98%  
33 9% 96%  
34 18% 87%  
35 8% 70% Median
36 21% 62%  
37 12% 41%  
38 18% 29%  
39 5% 11%  
40 3% 6% Last Result
41 2% 3%  
42 0.7% 1.3%  
43 0.4% 0.6%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.8%  
29 0.7% 99.7%  
30 3% 99.0%  
31 7% 96%  
32 4% 90%  
33 11% 85%  
34 28% 74% Median
35 14% 46%  
36 13% 32%  
37 10% 19%  
38 6% 9%  
39 2% 4%  
40 1.1% 2%  
41 0.3% 0.6%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
44 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.3% 100%  
25 0.9% 99.6%  
26 3% 98.7%  
27 10% 96%  
28 15% 86%  
29 16% 71% Median
30 18% 56%  
31 18% 38%  
32 11% 20%  
33 4% 10%  
34 3% 5%  
35 1.4% 2% Last Result
36 0.6% 1.0%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.5% 99.9%  
25 1.4% 99.4%  
26 4% 98%  
27 8% 94%  
28 11% 86%  
29 22% 75% Median
30 16% 53%  
31 20% 37%  
32 8% 17%  
33 6% 10%  
34 2% 4%  
35 0.7% 2%  
36 0.5% 0.9%  
37 0.3% 0.3%  
38 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
39 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.4% 100%  
25 1.0% 99.6%  
26 3% 98.6%  
27 10% 95%  
28 16% 86%  
29 16% 70% Median
30 18% 54% Last Result
31 17% 36%  
32 11% 19%  
33 4% 9%  
34 3% 5%  
35 1.3% 2%  
36 0.4% 0.6%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.5% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.4%  
26 4% 98%  
27 9% 94%  
28 12% 85%  
29 22% 73% Median
30 16% 51%  
31 19% 35%  
32 7% 16%  
33 5% 9% Last Result
34 2% 3%  
35 0.6% 1.2%  
36 0.3% 0.6%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.4% 100%  
19 1.0% 99.5%  
20 5% 98%  
21 8% 94%  
22 9% 85%  
23 35% 76% Median
24 12% 40%  
25 12% 28%  
26 11% 16%  
27 2% 5%  
28 1.3% 2% Last Result
29 0.7% 1.1%  
30 0.3% 0.4%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.5% 100%  
19 1.1% 99.5%  
20 5% 98%  
21 9% 93%  
22 10% 84%  
23 36% 74% Last Result, Median
24 12% 38%  
25 12% 27%  
26 11% 14%  
27 2% 4%  
28 1.1% 2%  
29 0.5% 0.6%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.2% 99.9%  
12 1.4% 99.7%  
13 6% 98%  
14 19% 93%  
15 33% 73% Median
16 16% 41%  
17 8% 25%  
18 6% 16%  
19 8% 10%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.5% 0.6%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations