Opinion Poll by Mediana for POP TV, 29 July 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 24.9% | 29.1% | 26.7–31.7% | 26.0–32.5% | 25.4–33.1% | 24.3–34.4% |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 12.6% | 15.1% | 13.3–17.3% | 12.8–17.9% | 12.3–18.4% | 11.5–19.5% |
| Levica | 9.3% | 10.8% | 9.2–12.7% | 8.8–13.2% | 8.4–13.7% | 7.7–14.7% |
| Socialni demokrati | 9.9% | 10.2% | 8.7–12.1% | 8.3–12.6% | 7.9–13.1% | 7.2–14.0% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.1–9.0% | 5.7–9.5% | 5.4–9.9% | 4.9–10.8% |
| Stranka modernega centra | 9.7% | 7.0% | 5.8–8.6% | 5.4–9.1% | 5.1–9.5% | 4.6–10.3% |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4.2% | 5.9% | 4.7–7.4% | 4.4–7.8% | 4.2–8.2% | 3.7–9.0% |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.4–7.0% | 4.1–7.4% | 3.8–7.8% | 3.4–8.5% |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.8–3.6% | 1.6–3.9% | 1.4–4.2% | 1.2–4.8% |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.0–2.5% | 0.9–2.7% | 0.8–3.0% | 0.6–3.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 25 | 27 | 25–30 | 24–31 | 23–31 | 22–34 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 13 | 14 | 12–16 | 12–17 | 11–18 | 10–18 |
| Levica | 9 | 10 | 9–12 | 8–13 | 8–13 | 7–14 |
| Socialni demokrati | 10 | 9 | 8–11 | 7–12 | 7–12 | 6–13 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7 | 6 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 4–10 |
| Stranka modernega centra | 10 | 6 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 | 4–10 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4 | 5 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 3–7 | 0–8 |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 0–7 | 0–8 |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 24 | 6% | 97% | |
| 25 | 5% | 91% | Last Result |
| 26 | 13% | 86% | |
| 27 | 35% | 74% | Median |
| 28 | 18% | 39% | |
| 29 | 9% | 21% | |
| 30 | 6% | 12% | |
| 31 | 4% | 6% | |
| 32 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 34 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 11 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 12 | 10% | 96% | |
| 13 | 18% | 86% | Last Result |
| 14 | 32% | 68% | Median |
| 15 | 14% | 36% | |
| 16 | 14% | 21% | |
| 17 | 4% | 7% | |
| 18 | 3% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Levica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 7% | 98% | |
| 9 | 18% | 91% | Last Result |
| 10 | 35% | 73% | Median |
| 11 | 25% | 38% | |
| 12 | 7% | 13% | |
| 13 | 5% | 6% | |
| 14 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 7 | 6% | 99.1% | |
| 8 | 25% | 93% | |
| 9 | 34% | 68% | Median |
| 10 | 18% | 34% | Last Result |
| 11 | 10% | 16% | |
| 12 | 4% | 5% | |
| 13 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 26% | 98.6% | |
| 6 | 32% | 73% | Median |
| 7 | 21% | 41% | Last Result |
| 8 | 12% | 20% | |
| 9 | 6% | 8% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka modernega centra
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 18% | 97% | |
| 6 | 42% | 78% | Median |
| 7 | 20% | 37% | |
| 8 | 13% | 16% | |
| 9 | 3% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 98% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 4 | 19% | 97% | Last Result |
| 5 | 38% | 78% | Median |
| 6 | 28% | 40% | |
| 7 | 10% | 12% | |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka Alenke Bratušek
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 96% | |
| 2 | 0% | 96% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 4 | 27% | 96% | |
| 5 | 47% | 68% | Last Result, Median |
| 6 | 16% | 21% | |
| 7 | 5% | 6% | |
| 8 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 3% | |
| 3 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska ljudska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 50 | 41 | 3% | 38–44 | 38–45 | 37–46 | 35–48 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 43 | 41 | 4% | 39–44 | 38–45 | 37–46 | 36–49 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca | 38 | 41 | 3% | 39–44 | 38–45 | 37–46 | 36–49 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 45 | 36 | 0% | 33–39 | 33–40 | 32–41 | 30–43 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra | 40 | 36 | 0% | 33–39 | 33–40 | 32–41 | 30–43 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 43 | 34 | 0% | 31–37 | 31–38 | 30–39 | 29–41 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 35 | 30 | 0% | 27–32 | 27–34 | 26–34 | 25–36 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 38 | 30 | 0% | 27–32 | 26–33 | 26–34 | 24–36 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 30 | 30 | 0% | 27–32 | 27–33 | 26–34 | 25–36 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra | 33 | 30 | 0% | 27–32 | 26–33 | 26–34 | 24–36 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 28 | 23 | 0% | 21–26 | 20–26 | 20–27 | 19–29 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati | 23 | 23 | 0% | 21–26 | 20–26 | 20–27 | 18–29 |
| Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 25 | 15 | 0% | 14–19 | 13–19 | 13–20 | 12–21 |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 36 | 1.5% | 99.1% | |
| 37 | 2% | 98% | |
| 38 | 6% | 95% | |
| 39 | 20% | 90% | |
| 40 | 12% | 70% | Median |
| 41 | 19% | 58% | |
| 42 | 14% | 39% | |
| 43 | 13% | 25% | |
| 44 | 5% | 12% | |
| 45 | 4% | 7% | |
| 46 | 2% | 3% | Majority |
| 47 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 38 | 3% | 97% | |
| 39 | 10% | 94% | |
| 40 | 12% | 84% | |
| 41 | 27% | 71% | Median |
| 42 | 10% | 44% | |
| 43 | 18% | 35% | Last Result |
| 44 | 7% | 17% | |
| 45 | 6% | 10% | |
| 46 | 2% | 4% | Majority |
| 47 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 37 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 38 | 3% | 96% | Last Result |
| 39 | 10% | 93% | |
| 40 | 13% | 82% | |
| 41 | 27% | 69% | Median |
| 42 | 9% | 42% | |
| 43 | 17% | 33% | |
| 44 | 7% | 16% | |
| 45 | 6% | 9% | |
| 46 | 2% | 3% | Majority |
| 47 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 32 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 33 | 8% | 96% | |
| 34 | 17% | 88% | |
| 35 | 8% | 71% | Median |
| 36 | 21% | 64% | |
| 37 | 12% | 43% | |
| 38 | 18% | 31% | |
| 39 | 5% | 12% | |
| 40 | 3% | 7% | |
| 41 | 2% | 4% | |
| 42 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 43 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 32 | 2% | 98% | |
| 33 | 9% | 96% | |
| 34 | 18% | 87% | |
| 35 | 8% | 70% | Median |
| 36 | 21% | 62% | |
| 37 | 12% | 41% | |
| 38 | 18% | 29% | |
| 39 | 5% | 11% | |
| 40 | 3% | 6% | Last Result |
| 41 | 2% | 3% | |
| 42 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 43 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 31 | 7% | 96% | |
| 32 | 4% | 90% | |
| 33 | 11% | 85% | |
| 34 | 28% | 74% | Median |
| 35 | 14% | 46% | |
| 36 | 13% | 32% | |
| 37 | 10% | 19% | |
| 38 | 6% | 9% | |
| 39 | 2% | 4% | |
| 40 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 26 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 27 | 10% | 96% | |
| 28 | 15% | 86% | |
| 29 | 16% | 71% | Median |
| 30 | 18% | 56% | |
| 31 | 18% | 38% | |
| 32 | 11% | 20% | |
| 33 | 4% | 10% | |
| 34 | 3% | 5% | |
| 35 | 1.4% | 2% | Last Result |
| 36 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 26 | 4% | 98% | |
| 27 | 8% | 94% | |
| 28 | 11% | 86% | |
| 29 | 22% | 75% | Median |
| 30 | 16% | 53% | |
| 31 | 20% | 37% | |
| 32 | 8% | 17% | |
| 33 | 6% | 10% | |
| 34 | 2% | 4% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 25 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 26 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 27 | 10% | 95% | |
| 28 | 16% | 86% | |
| 29 | 16% | 70% | Median |
| 30 | 18% | 54% | Last Result |
| 31 | 17% | 36% | |
| 32 | 11% | 19% | |
| 33 | 4% | 9% | |
| 34 | 3% | 5% | |
| 35 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 26 | 4% | 98% | |
| 27 | 9% | 94% | |
| 28 | 12% | 85% | |
| 29 | 22% | 73% | Median |
| 30 | 16% | 51% | |
| 31 | 19% | 35% | |
| 32 | 7% | 16% | |
| 33 | 5% | 9% | Last Result |
| 34 | 2% | 3% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 19 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 20 | 5% | 98% | |
| 21 | 8% | 94% | |
| 22 | 9% | 85% | |
| 23 | 35% | 76% | Median |
| 24 | 12% | 40% | |
| 25 | 12% | 28% | |
| 26 | 11% | 16% | |
| 27 | 2% | 5% | |
| 28 | 1.3% | 2% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 19 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 20 | 5% | 98% | |
| 21 | 9% | 93% | |
| 22 | 10% | 84% | |
| 23 | 36% | 74% | Last Result, Median |
| 24 | 12% | 38% | |
| 25 | 12% | 27% | |
| 26 | 11% | 14% | |
| 27 | 2% | 4% | |
| 28 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 29 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 1.4% | 99.7% | |
| 13 | 6% | 98% | |
| 14 | 19% | 93% | |
| 15 | 33% | 73% | Median |
| 16 | 16% | 41% | |
| 17 | 8% | 25% | |
| 18 | 6% | 16% | |
| 19 | 8% | 10% | |
| 20 | 2% | 3% | |
| 21 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Mediana
- Commissioner(s): POP TV
- Fieldwork period: 29 July 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 529
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.45%