Opinion Poll by Ninamedia for Dnevnik and RTV Slovenija, 13–15 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 29.9% 27.5–32.5% 26.8–33.2% 26.2–33.8% 25.1–35.1%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 12.6% 11.0–14.6% 10.5–15.1% 10.1–15.7% 9.4–16.6%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 12.6% 11.0–14.6% 10.5–15.1% 10.1–15.7% 9.4–16.6%
Levica 9.3% 8.5% 7.2–10.2% 6.8–10.7% 6.5–11.2% 5.9–12.0%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 6.0% 4.9–7.5% 4.6–8.0% 4.4–8.3% 3.9–9.1%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 3.9% 3.0–5.2% 2.8–5.5% 2.6–5.9% 2.2–6.5%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 3.9% 3.0–5.2% 2.8–5.5% 2.6–5.9% 2.2–6.5%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 2.8% 2.1–4.0% 1.9–4.3% 1.8–4.6% 1.5–5.2%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 2.1% 1.5–3.2% 1.4–3.4% 1.2–3.7% 1.0–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 29 26–31 26–32 25–33 24–35
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 12 10–14 10–14 9–15 9–16
Socialni demokrati 10 12 10–14 10–15 9–15 9–16
Levica 9 8 7–10 6–10 6–11 5–11
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 6 4–7 4–7 4–8 0–8
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–6
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0 0 0 0–4

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.4% 100%  
24 1.1% 99.6%  
25 3% 98.5% Last Result
26 5% 95%  
27 19% 90%  
28 18% 71%  
29 17% 53% Median
30 14% 36%  
31 12% 22%  
32 6% 10%  
33 2% 4%  
34 0.6% 1.2%  
35 0.4% 0.5%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.4% 100%  
9 3% 99.6%  
10 11% 97%  
11 25% 86%  
12 22% 61% Median
13 24% 39% Last Result
14 11% 15%  
15 3% 4%  
16 0.8% 1.0%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.4% 100%  
9 3% 99.6%  
10 12% 97% Last Result
11 15% 85%  
12 33% 70% Median
13 22% 37%  
14 9% 15%  
15 5% 6%  
16 0.8% 0.9%  
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.9% 100%  
6 5% 99.1%  
7 22% 94%  
8 27% 72% Median
9 23% 45% Last Result
10 19% 22%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.5% 0.5%  
13 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100%  
1 0% 99.2%  
2 0% 99.2%  
3 0.1% 99.2%  
4 10% 99.1%  
5 32% 89%  
6 27% 57% Median
7 26% 30% Last Result
8 4% 4%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 60% 100% Median
1 0% 40%  
2 0% 40%  
3 2% 40%  
4 30% 37%  
5 6% 8%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 54% 100% Median
1 0% 46%  
2 0% 46%  
3 3% 46%  
4 29% 42%  
5 12% 13% Last Result
6 0.9% 1.0%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Median
1 0% 8%  
2 0% 8%  
3 1.4% 8%  
4 6% 7% Last Result
5 0.3% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Median
1 0% 0.9%  
2 0% 0.9%  
3 0.1% 0.9%  
4 0.8% 0.8%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 42 17% 40–46 39–47 39–48 37–49
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 41 5% 38–44 37–46 36–46 35–48
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek 50 34 0% 30–37 29–38 28–39 26–40
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 34 0% 30–37 29–38 28–39 26–40
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 31 0% 29–35 28–36 27–37 26–38
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 31 0% 29–34 28–35 27–36 25–38
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 30 0% 27–32 26–33 25–34 24–35
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek 43 28 0% 23–31 23–32 23–33 22–35
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 28 0% 23–31 23–32 23–33 22–35
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 25 0% 23–30 23–30 22–31 21–32
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 25 0% 23–29 23–30 22–31 21–32
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 24 0% 22–26 21–27 20–28 19–29
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 16 0% 12–19 11–21 11–22 10–23

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.7% 99.8%  
38 1.1% 99.1%  
39 4% 98%  
40 13% 94%  
41 12% 81% Median
42 20% 69%  
43 14% 49% Last Result
44 9% 35%  
45 8% 25%  
46 12% 17% Majority
47 3% 6%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.6% 0.9%  
50 0.1% 0.3%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.5% 99.9%  
36 2% 99.4%  
37 5% 97%  
38 9% 92% Last Result
39 13% 83%  
40 15% 70%  
41 18% 55% Median
42 17% 37%  
43 8% 20%  
44 5% 12%  
45 2% 7%  
46 3% 5% Majority
47 0.5% 2%  
48 0.9% 1.0%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.7% 99.9%  
27 0.7% 99.2%  
28 1.4% 98.6%  
29 4% 97%  
30 10% 93% Median
31 9% 84%  
32 11% 75%  
33 8% 64%  
34 19% 55%  
35 14% 37%  
36 7% 23%  
37 10% 16%  
38 3% 6%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.6% 0.9%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Majority
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.7% 99.9%  
27 0.7% 99.2%  
28 1.5% 98.5%  
29 4% 97%  
30 10% 93% Median
31 9% 84%  
32 11% 75%  
33 8% 63%  
34 19% 55%  
35 14% 36%  
36 7% 23%  
37 9% 15%  
38 3% 6%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.6% 0.8%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.8%  
26 1.1% 99.6%  
27 2% 98.5%  
28 4% 97%  
29 8% 92%  
30 20% 85% Median
31 15% 65%  
32 13% 49%  
33 9% 37%  
34 10% 27%  
35 8% 17% Last Result
36 4% 9%  
37 4% 5%  
38 0.8% 1.1%  
39 0.3% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.8%  
26 1.2% 99.4%  
27 3% 98%  
28 4% 96%  
29 9% 91%  
30 14% 82% Median
31 19% 68%  
32 16% 48%  
33 10% 33%  
34 14% 23%  
35 4% 9%  
36 2% 4%  
37 1.2% 2%  
38 0.8% 1.1%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.9%  
24 0.9% 99.8%  
25 2% 98.9%  
26 3% 97%  
27 9% 94%  
28 9% 85%  
29 14% 76%  
30 23% 62% Last Result, Median
31 17% 39%  
32 12% 21%  
33 6% 10%  
34 3% 4%  
35 0.6% 1.0%  
36 0.4% 0.5%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.2% 99.9%  
22 1.2% 99.7%  
23 9% 98.5%  
24 4% 90% Median
25 12% 86%  
26 5% 74%  
27 13% 69%  
28 12% 56%  
29 16% 44%  
30 13% 28%  
31 6% 15%  
32 5% 9%  
33 2% 4%  
34 1.4% 2%  
35 0.4% 0.6%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.2% 99.9%  
22 1.2% 99.7%  
23 9% 98%  
24 4% 90% Median
25 12% 86%  
26 6% 74%  
27 13% 68%  
28 12% 55%  
29 16% 43%  
30 13% 27%  
31 6% 15%  
32 5% 8%  
33 2% 4%  
34 1.3% 2%  
35 0.4% 0.5%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.4% 99.9%  
21 0.9% 99.5%  
22 3% 98.7%  
23 15% 95%  
24 8% 80% Median
25 22% 72%  
26 8% 50%  
27 11% 42%  
28 11% 31% Last Result
29 8% 20%  
30 9% 12%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.8% 1.1%  
33 0.2% 0.3%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.4% 99.9%  
21 1.0% 99.5%  
22 2% 98%  
23 13% 96%  
24 13% 83% Median
25 21% 70%  
26 15% 49%  
27 12% 34%  
28 6% 21%  
29 10% 15%  
30 3% 5%  
31 1.1% 3%  
32 1.2% 2%  
33 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 1.4% 99.8%  
20 2% 98%  
21 6% 97%  
22 8% 90%  
23 19% 82% Last Result
24 17% 63% Median
25 26% 46%  
26 10% 20%  
27 7% 10%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.8% 0.9%  
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 0.7% 99.8%  
11 7% 99.0%  
12 14% 92% Median
13 7% 79%  
14 8% 72%  
15 7% 64%  
16 12% 57%  
17 17% 46%  
18 12% 28%  
19 7% 16%  
20 3% 9%  
21 3% 6%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.7% 0.9%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations