Opinion Poll by Mediana for POP TV, 26 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 30.9% 28.3–33.7% 27.6–34.4% 27.0–35.1% 25.8–36.5%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 13.3% 11.5–15.5% 11.1–16.1% 10.6–16.6% 9.8–17.7%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 10.1% 8.6–12.0% 8.1–12.6% 7.7–13.1% 7.1–14.1%
Levica 9.3% 9.5% 8.0–11.4% 7.6–11.9% 7.2–12.4% 6.6–13.4%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 6.5% 5.2–8.1% 4.9–8.6% 4.6–9.0% 4.1–9.8%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 6.3% 5.1–7.9% 4.7–8.4% 4.5–8.8% 3.9–9.6%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 4.6% 3.6–6.1% 3.4–6.5% 3.1–6.9% 2.7–7.7%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 4.6% 3.6–6.1% 3.4–6.5% 3.1–6.9% 2.7–7.7%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 2.8% 2.1–4.0% 1.9–4.4% 1.7–4.7% 1.4–5.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 29 26–31 26–32 25–33 24–35
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 12 11–14 10–15 10–15 9–16
Socialni demokrati 10 9 8–11 7–11 7–12 6–13
Levica 9 8 8–10 7–11 6–11 6–12
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 6 5–7 4–7 4–8 3–9
Stranka modernega centra 10 5 4–7 4–7 4–8 3–9
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 4 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–7
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0 0–3 0–4 0–4

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.9%  
24 1.1% 99.7%  
25 3% 98.6% Last Result
26 7% 95%  
27 11% 88%  
28 23% 77%  
29 17% 54% Median
30 17% 38%  
31 12% 21%  
32 5% 9%  
33 3% 4%  
34 0.9% 1.5%  
35 0.5% 0.6%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 2% 99.8%  
10 8% 98%  
11 23% 90%  
12 23% 67% Median
13 25% 44% Last Result
14 10% 19%  
15 7% 9%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.2% 0.3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 1.0% 99.9%  
7 7% 99.0%  
8 21% 92%  
9 28% 71% Median
10 28% 42% Last Result
11 10% 14%  
12 3% 4%  
13 1.1% 1.2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 4% 99.8%  
7 5% 96%  
8 47% 91% Median
9 19% 44% Last Result
10 16% 25%  
11 7% 9%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.4% 0.4%  
14 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0.6% 99.7%  
4 9% 99.1%  
5 32% 90%  
6 34% 58% Median
7 20% 25% Last Result
8 4% 5%  
9 0.8% 0.9%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 0% 99.6%  
2 0% 99.6%  
3 0.4% 99.6%  
4 12% 99.1%  
5 40% 87% Median
6 28% 48%  
7 16% 19%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.8% 0.8%  
10 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 19% 100%  
1 0% 81%  
2 0% 81%  
3 10% 81%  
4 43% 71% Median
5 23% 28% Last Result
6 4% 5%  
7 0.9% 1.0%  
8 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 22% 100%  
1 0% 78%  
2 0% 78%  
3 4% 78%  
4 42% 73% Last Result, Median
5 26% 31%  
6 5% 5%  
7 0.6% 0.7%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Median
1 0% 8%  
2 0% 8%  
3 3% 8%  
4 4% 5%  
5 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 41 7% 39–45 38–46 37–47 36–48
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 41 6% 38–44 37–46 37–47 35–48
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 50 37 0% 34–40 32–41 32–42 30–43
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 45 33 0% 30–36 29–38 29–38 27–40
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 33 0% 30–36 29–37 28–38 27–39
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 31 0% 28–34 27–35 26–36 25–37
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 38 27 0% 25–30 24–31 23–33 22–34
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 27 0% 25–31 24–32 23–32 22–34
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 27 0% 25–30 24–31 23–32 22–33
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 27 0% 24–30 24–31 23–32 22–33
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 22 0% 20–25 19–26 18–26 17–28
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 21 0% 19–24 19–25 18–26 17–27
Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 25 15 0% 13–17 13–18 11–19 11–21

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.9%  
36 0.9% 99.6%  
37 3% 98.7%  
38 5% 96%  
39 14% 91%  
40 12% 77%  
41 18% 64% Median
42 15% 47%  
43 14% 32% Last Result
44 7% 18%  
45 4% 11%  
46 3% 7% Majority
47 2% 3%  
48 0.7% 0.9%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.5% 99.8%  
36 1.2% 99.3%  
37 4% 98%  
38 6% 95% Last Result
39 16% 89%  
40 13% 73%  
41 18% 60% Median
42 14% 42%  
43 13% 28%  
44 6% 15%  
45 3% 9%  
46 3% 6% Majority
47 2% 3%  
48 0.5% 0.7%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.9% 99.8%  
31 0.9% 98.9%  
32 4% 98%  
33 3% 94%  
34 11% 91%  
35 16% 80%  
36 14% 64% Median
37 10% 50%  
38 19% 40%  
39 7% 21%  
40 7% 14%  
41 5% 7%  
42 1.2% 3%  
43 1.0% 1.4%  
44 0.3% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Majority
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.4% 99.9%  
28 2% 99.5%  
29 3% 98%  
30 7% 95%  
31 14% 87%  
32 20% 74% Median
33 8% 54%  
34 18% 46%  
35 11% 27%  
36 6% 16%  
37 4% 10%  
38 3% 5%  
39 2% 2%  
40 0.5% 0.7%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.6% 99.8%  
28 2% 99.2%  
29 5% 97%  
30 8% 92%  
31 14% 84%  
32 19% 70% Median
33 9% 51%  
34 18% 42%  
35 11% 24%  
36 6% 13%  
37 3% 7%  
38 3% 4%  
39 0.8% 1.1%  
40 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.3% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.6%  
26 3% 98%  
27 3% 95%  
28 10% 92%  
29 8% 82%  
30 23% 74% Median
31 15% 51%  
32 11% 37%  
33 9% 26%  
34 7% 17%  
35 7% 10%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.7% 1.1%  
38 0.3% 0.4%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100%  
21 0.2% 99.9%  
22 0.8% 99.8%  
23 2% 99.0%  
24 6% 97%  
25 12% 91%  
26 23% 80% Median
27 15% 56%  
28 10% 42%  
29 10% 32%  
30 12% 21%  
31 5% 10%  
32 2% 5%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.4% 0.6%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 99.9%  
22 0.7% 99.8%  
23 2% 99.1%  
24 4% 97%  
25 9% 93%  
26 18% 84%  
27 18% 67% Median
28 15% 49%  
29 17% 33%  
30 5% 16%  
31 6% 11%  
32 3% 5%  
33 0.9% 2%  
34 1.1% 1.4%  
35 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.2% 99.9%  
22 0.8% 99.8%  
23 3% 98.9%  
24 5% 96%  
25 11% 92%  
26 18% 81%  
27 19% 63% Median
28 14% 44%  
29 17% 30%  
30 4% 13% Last Result
31 5% 8%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.4% 0.8%  
34 0.3% 0.4%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.9%  
22 0.9% 99.6%  
23 3% 98.7%  
24 6% 95%  
25 13% 89%  
26 23% 76% Median
27 15% 53%  
28 11% 38%  
29 9% 27%  
30 11% 18%  
31 5% 7%  
32 0.9% 3%  
33 2% 2% Last Result
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.2% 99.9%  
18 3% 98.7%  
19 5% 96%  
20 22% 91%  
21 18% 69% Median
22 18% 51%  
23 13% 34%  
24 10% 21%  
25 4% 10%  
26 4% 6%  
27 1.2% 2%  
28 0.6% 0.8% Last Result
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.4% 99.8%  
18 3% 98%  
19 7% 95%  
20 23% 89%  
21 19% 65% Median
22 17% 47%  
23 13% 29% Last Result
24 10% 17%  
25 4% 7%  
26 3% 3%  
27 0.5% 0.6%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 99.9%  
10 0.1% 99.8%  
11 2% 99.7%  
12 2% 97%  
13 12% 95%  
14 20% 83% Median
15 29% 63%  
16 12% 33%  
17 11% 21%  
18 6% 10%  
19 2% 4%  
20 0.9% 2%  
21 0.5% 0.7%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations