Opinion Poll by Mediana for POP TV, 26 August 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 24.9% | 30.9% | 28.3–33.7% | 27.6–34.4% | 27.0–35.1% | 25.8–36.5% |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 12.6% | 13.3% | 11.5–15.5% | 11.1–16.1% | 10.6–16.6% | 9.8–17.7% |
| Socialni demokrati | 9.9% | 10.1% | 8.6–12.0% | 8.1–12.6% | 7.7–13.1% | 7.1–14.1% |
| Levica | 9.3% | 9.5% | 8.0–11.4% | 7.6–11.9% | 7.2–12.4% | 6.6–13.4% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.2–8.1% | 4.9–8.6% | 4.6–9.0% | 4.1–9.8% |
| Stranka modernega centra | 9.7% | 6.3% | 5.1–7.9% | 4.7–8.4% | 4.5–8.8% | 3.9–9.6% |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.6–6.1% | 3.4–6.5% | 3.1–6.9% | 2.7–7.7% |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.6–6.1% | 3.4–6.5% | 3.1–6.9% | 2.7–7.7% |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 4.9% | 2.8% | 2.1–4.0% | 1.9–4.4% | 1.7–4.7% | 1.4–5.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 25 | 29 | 26–31 | 26–32 | 25–33 | 24–35 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 13 | 12 | 11–14 | 10–15 | 10–15 | 9–16 |
| Socialni demokrati | 10 | 9 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 7–12 | 6–13 |
| Levica | 9 | 8 | 8–10 | 7–11 | 6–11 | 6–12 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7 | 6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 3–9 |
| Stranka modernega centra | 10 | 5 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 3–9 |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5 | 4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4 | 4 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 3% | 98.6% | Last Result |
| 26 | 7% | 95% | |
| 27 | 11% | 88% | |
| 28 | 23% | 77% | |
| 29 | 17% | 54% | Median |
| 30 | 17% | 38% | |
| 31 | 12% | 21% | |
| 32 | 5% | 9% | |
| 33 | 3% | 4% | |
| 34 | 0.9% | 1.5% | |
| 35 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 8% | 98% | |
| 11 | 23% | 90% | |
| 12 | 23% | 67% | Median |
| 13 | 25% | 44% | Last Result |
| 14 | 10% | 19% | |
| 15 | 7% | 9% | |
| 16 | 2% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 7% | 99.0% | |
| 8 | 21% | 92% | |
| 9 | 28% | 71% | Median |
| 10 | 28% | 42% | Last Result |
| 11 | 10% | 14% | |
| 12 | 3% | 4% | |
| 13 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Levica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 5% | 96% | |
| 8 | 47% | 91% | Median |
| 9 | 19% | 44% | Last Result |
| 10 | 16% | 25% | |
| 11 | 7% | 9% | |
| 12 | 2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 4 | 9% | 99.1% | |
| 5 | 32% | 90% | |
| 6 | 34% | 58% | Median |
| 7 | 20% | 25% | Last Result |
| 8 | 4% | 5% | |
| 9 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka modernega centra
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 4 | 12% | 99.1% | |
| 5 | 40% | 87% | Median |
| 6 | 28% | 48% | |
| 7 | 16% | 19% | |
| 8 | 3% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka Alenke Bratušek
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 81% | |
| 2 | 0% | 81% | |
| 3 | 10% | 81% | |
| 4 | 43% | 71% | Median |
| 5 | 23% | 28% | Last Result |
| 6 | 4% | 5% | |
| 7 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 78% | |
| 2 | 0% | 78% | |
| 3 | 4% | 78% | |
| 4 | 42% | 73% | Last Result, Median |
| 5 | 26% | 31% | |
| 6 | 5% | 5% | |
| 7 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 8% | |
| 3 | 3% | 8% | |
| 4 | 4% | 5% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 43 | 41 | 7% | 39–45 | 38–46 | 37–47 | 36–48 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca | 38 | 41 | 6% | 38–44 | 37–46 | 37–47 | 35–48 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 50 | 37 | 0% | 34–40 | 32–41 | 32–42 | 30–43 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 45 | 33 | 0% | 30–36 | 29–38 | 29–38 | 27–40 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra | 40 | 33 | 0% | 30–36 | 29–37 | 28–38 | 27–39 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 43 | 31 | 0% | 28–34 | 27–35 | 26–36 | 25–37 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 38 | 27 | 0% | 25–30 | 24–31 | 23–33 | 22–34 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 35 | 27 | 0% | 25–31 | 24–32 | 23–32 | 22–34 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 30 | 27 | 0% | 25–30 | 24–31 | 23–32 | 22–33 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra | 33 | 27 | 0% | 24–30 | 24–31 | 23–32 | 22–33 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 28 | 22 | 0% | 20–25 | 19–26 | 18–26 | 17–28 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati | 23 | 21 | 0% | 19–24 | 19–25 | 18–26 | 17–27 |
| Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 25 | 15 | 0% | 13–17 | 13–18 | 11–19 | 11–21 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 37 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 38 | 5% | 96% | |
| 39 | 14% | 91% | |
| 40 | 12% | 77% | |
| 41 | 18% | 64% | Median |
| 42 | 15% | 47% | |
| 43 | 14% | 32% | Last Result |
| 44 | 7% | 18% | |
| 45 | 4% | 11% | |
| 46 | 3% | 7% | Majority |
| 47 | 2% | 3% | |
| 48 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 36 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 37 | 4% | 98% | |
| 38 | 6% | 95% | Last Result |
| 39 | 16% | 89% | |
| 40 | 13% | 73% | |
| 41 | 18% | 60% | Median |
| 42 | 14% | 42% | |
| 43 | 13% | 28% | |
| 44 | 6% | 15% | |
| 45 | 3% | 9% | |
| 46 | 3% | 6% | Majority |
| 47 | 2% | 3% | |
| 48 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 32 | 4% | 98% | |
| 33 | 3% | 94% | |
| 34 | 11% | 91% | |
| 35 | 16% | 80% | |
| 36 | 14% | 64% | Median |
| 37 | 10% | 50% | |
| 38 | 19% | 40% | |
| 39 | 7% | 21% | |
| 40 | 7% | 14% | |
| 41 | 5% | 7% | |
| 42 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 43 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 29 | 3% | 98% | |
| 30 | 7% | 95% | |
| 31 | 14% | 87% | |
| 32 | 20% | 74% | Median |
| 33 | 8% | 54% | |
| 34 | 18% | 46% | |
| 35 | 11% | 27% | |
| 36 | 6% | 16% | |
| 37 | 4% | 10% | |
| 38 | 3% | 5% | |
| 39 | 2% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 28 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 29 | 5% | 97% | |
| 30 | 8% | 92% | |
| 31 | 14% | 84% | |
| 32 | 19% | 70% | Median |
| 33 | 9% | 51% | |
| 34 | 18% | 42% | |
| 35 | 11% | 24% | |
| 36 | 6% | 13% | |
| 37 | 3% | 7% | |
| 38 | 3% | 4% | |
| 39 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 26 | 3% | 98% | |
| 27 | 3% | 95% | |
| 28 | 10% | 92% | |
| 29 | 8% | 82% | |
| 30 | 23% | 74% | Median |
| 31 | 15% | 51% | |
| 32 | 11% | 37% | |
| 33 | 9% | 26% | |
| 34 | 7% | 17% | |
| 35 | 7% | 10% | |
| 36 | 2% | 3% | |
| 37 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 24 | 6% | 97% | |
| 25 | 12% | 91% | |
| 26 | 23% | 80% | Median |
| 27 | 15% | 56% | |
| 28 | 10% | 42% | |
| 29 | 10% | 32% | |
| 30 | 12% | 21% | |
| 31 | 5% | 10% | |
| 32 | 2% | 5% | |
| 33 | 2% | 3% | |
| 34 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 24 | 4% | 97% | |
| 25 | 9% | 93% | |
| 26 | 18% | 84% | |
| 27 | 18% | 67% | Median |
| 28 | 15% | 49% | |
| 29 | 17% | 33% | |
| 30 | 5% | 16% | |
| 31 | 6% | 11% | |
| 32 | 3% | 5% | |
| 33 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 34 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 24 | 5% | 96% | |
| 25 | 11% | 92% | |
| 26 | 18% | 81% | |
| 27 | 19% | 63% | Median |
| 28 | 14% | 44% | |
| 29 | 17% | 30% | |
| 30 | 4% | 13% | Last Result |
| 31 | 5% | 8% | |
| 32 | 2% | 3% | |
| 33 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 23 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 24 | 6% | 95% | |
| 25 | 13% | 89% | |
| 26 | 23% | 76% | Median |
| 27 | 15% | 53% | |
| 28 | 11% | 38% | |
| 29 | 9% | 27% | |
| 30 | 11% | 18% | |
| 31 | 5% | 7% | |
| 32 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 33 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 19 | 5% | 96% | |
| 20 | 22% | 91% | |
| 21 | 18% | 69% | Median |
| 22 | 18% | 51% | |
| 23 | 13% | 34% | |
| 24 | 10% | 21% | |
| 25 | 4% | 10% | |
| 26 | 4% | 6% | |
| 27 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0.6% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 1.4% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 3% | 98% | |
| 19 | 7% | 95% | |
| 20 | 23% | 89% | |
| 21 | 19% | 65% | Median |
| 22 | 17% | 47% | |
| 23 | 13% | 29% | Last Result |
| 24 | 10% | 17% | |
| 25 | 4% | 7% | |
| 26 | 3% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 11 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 12 | 2% | 97% | |
| 13 | 12% | 95% | |
| 14 | 20% | 83% | Median |
| 15 | 29% | 63% | |
| 16 | 12% | 33% | |
| 17 | 11% | 21% | |
| 18 | 6% | 10% | |
| 19 | 2% | 4% | |
| 20 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Mediana
- Commissioner(s): POP TV
- Fieldwork period: 26 August 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 495
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.68%