Opinion Poll by Mediana for Delo, 30 August–6 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 26.8% 24.3–29.5% 23.6–30.3% 23.0–30.9% 21.9–32.3%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 10.7% 9.1–12.7% 8.6–13.3% 8.2–13.8% 7.5–14.8%
Levica 9.3% 10.3% 8.7–12.2% 8.2–12.8% 7.8–13.3% 7.1–14.3%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 9.8% 8.3–11.8% 7.8–12.3% 7.5–12.8% 6.8–13.8%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 7.1% 5.8–8.9% 5.4–9.3% 5.1–9.8% 4.6–10.7%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 6.5% 5.2–8.2% 4.9–8.6% 4.6–9.1% 4.1–9.9%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 6.1% 4.9–7.7% 4.5–8.2% 4.3–8.6% 3.7–9.4%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 4.8% 3.8–6.3% 3.5–6.7% 3.2–7.1% 2.8–7.9%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 4.8% 3.8–6.3% 3.5–6.7% 3.2–7.1% 2.8–7.9%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 4.4% 3.4–5.9% 3.1–6.3% 2.9–6.6% 2.5–7.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 24 23–27 22–28 21–29 19–30
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 9 8–11 7–12 7–12 7–13
Levica 9 9 8–11 7–11 7–12 6–13
Socialni demokrati 10 9 7–11 7–11 7–12 6–13
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 6 5–8 5–8 5–9 4–10
Stranka modernega centra 10 6 5–7 4–8 4–8 4–9
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 5 4–7 4–7 3–8 0–8
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 4 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–6
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 4 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.4% 99.9%  
20 0.9% 99.5%  
21 2% 98.6%  
22 7% 97%  
23 29% 90%  
24 15% 61% Median
25 11% 46% Last Result
26 21% 35%  
27 5% 13%  
28 3% 8%  
29 4% 5%  
30 0.8% 1.0%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 6% 99.8%  
8 6% 94%  
9 48% 88% Median
10 14% 40%  
11 20% 26%  
12 4% 6%  
13 1.4% 2% Last Result
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 0.8% 99.9%  
7 4% 99.1%  
8 23% 95%  
9 22% 72% Last Result, Median
10 39% 50%  
11 7% 11%  
12 3% 4%  
13 0.4% 0.6%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 1.0% 99.9%  
7 9% 98.9%  
8 14% 89%  
9 52% 76% Median
10 12% 23% Last Result
11 8% 12%  
12 2% 4%  
13 1.5% 2%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 99.9%  
5 18% 98%  
6 44% 79% Median
7 21% 35% Last Result
8 11% 15%  
9 3% 4%  
10 0.6% 0.6%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0.2% 99.8%  
4 7% 99.6%  
5 24% 92%  
6 45% 68% Median
7 16% 23%  
8 6% 7%  
9 0.5% 0.7%  
10 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0.9% 98%  
4 14% 97%  
5 43% 84% Last Result, Median
6 24% 41%  
7 14% 17%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.2% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 20% 100%  
1 0% 80%  
2 0% 80%  
3 10% 80%  
4 22% 70% Median
5 41% 48% Last Result
6 6% 7%  
7 1.0% 1.1%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 20% 100%  
1 0% 80%  
2 0% 80%  
3 6% 80%  
4 48% 75% Last Result, Median
5 16% 26%  
6 10% 11%  
7 0.4% 0.5%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 31% 100% Last Result
1 0% 69%  
2 0% 69%  
3 7% 69%  
4 52% 63% Median
5 8% 11%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0.1% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek 50 40 4% 37–44 36–45 35–46 33–46
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 39 0.4% 37–43 36–44 35–44 33–45
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 45 36 0% 33–40 32–41 31–41 29–42
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek 43 34 0% 31–37 29–38 28–39 26–40
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 34 0% 32–37 31–38 30–38 29–40
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 30 0% 28–34 27–35 27–36 25–37
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 30 0% 28–34 27–34 26–35 24–36
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 38 29 0% 27–33 26–34 25–35 22–35
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 24 0% 22–28 22–29 21–30 20–30
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 24 0% 22–27 21–28 20–29 19–30
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 23 0% 21–27 21–27 19–28 17–29
Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 25 20 0% 18–23 17–23 16–24 13–25
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 18 0% 16–21 16–22 15–23 14–24

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 99.9%  
33 1.1% 99.8%  
34 0.7% 98.7%  
35 2% 98%  
36 4% 96%  
37 8% 92%  
38 17% 84%  
39 7% 66% Median
40 24% 60%  
41 17% 36%  
42 4% 19%  
43 3% 15%  
44 7% 12%  
45 1.1% 5%  
46 4% 4% Majority
47 0.3% 0.4%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.8%  
34 0.6% 99.4%  
35 2% 98.9%  
36 4% 97%  
37 29% 93%  
38 8% 63% Median
39 8% 55%  
40 10% 48%  
41 10% 38%  
42 8% 28%  
43 15% 20% Last Result
44 4% 5%  
45 0.9% 1.2%  
46 0.2% 0.4% Majority
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 1.0% 99.9%  
30 0.7% 98.9%  
31 0.9% 98%  
32 2% 97%  
33 11% 95%  
34 9% 84%  
35 22% 75% Median
36 10% 53%  
37 10% 43%  
38 14% 33%  
39 9% 20%  
40 2% 11%  
41 7% 9%  
42 0.7% 1.0%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 1.0% 99.9%  
27 0.4% 99.0%  
28 2% 98.6%  
29 2% 97%  
30 5% 95%  
31 13% 90%  
32 11% 77%  
33 13% 66% Median
34 24% 54%  
35 10% 30%  
36 6% 20%  
37 6% 14%  
38 3% 7%  
39 3% 5%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 1.3% 99.7%  
30 3% 98%  
31 4% 96%  
32 27% 92%  
33 12% 65% Median
34 12% 53%  
35 10% 40%  
36 8% 31%  
37 15% 23%  
38 6% 8% Last Result
39 1.5% 2%  
40 0.3% 0.6%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.1% 99.9%  
25 0.6% 99.8%  
26 1.1% 99.3%  
27 3% 98%  
28 15% 95%  
29 7% 80%  
30 26% 73% Median
31 8% 47%  
32 17% 39%  
33 7% 22%  
34 7% 15%  
35 3% 8%  
36 3% 4%  
37 1.1% 1.3%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 1.1% 99.9%  
25 1.2% 98.8%  
26 2% 98%  
27 5% 95%  
28 13% 90%  
29 22% 77% Median
30 11% 55%  
31 9% 44%  
32 16% 35%  
33 8% 20%  
34 8% 11%  
35 3% 4% Last Result
36 0.5% 0.8%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.9% 99.9%  
23 0.2% 99.0%  
24 0.7% 98.8%  
25 2% 98%  
26 2% 96%  
27 6% 94%  
28 17% 88%  
29 23% 72% Median
30 6% 48%  
31 15% 43%  
32 15% 28%  
33 8% 13%  
34 2% 5%  
35 3% 3%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.1% 99.9%  
20 0.8% 99.8%  
21 4% 99.0%  
22 7% 95%  
23 13% 88%  
24 27% 75% Median
25 8% 48%  
26 18% 40%  
27 10% 22%  
28 5% 12%  
29 4% 7%  
30 2% 3% Last Result
31 0.2% 0.5%  
32 0.3% 0.3%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100%  
18 0.1% 99.9%  
19 0.6% 99.9%  
20 2% 99.3%  
21 4% 97%  
22 8% 93%  
23 16% 86%  
24 30% 70% Median
25 7% 40%  
26 16% 32%  
27 8% 17%  
28 4% 8%  
29 2% 4%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0% 100%  
17 1.0% 99.9%  
18 0.3% 99.0%  
19 1.2% 98.7%  
20 2% 97%  
21 6% 96%  
22 10% 90%  
23 31% 80% Median
24 7% 49%  
25 13% 42%  
26 19% 29%  
27 5% 10%  
28 4% 5% Last Result
29 0.6% 1.0%  
30 0.3% 0.3%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 1.1% 100%  
14 0.2% 98.9%  
15 0.2% 98.7%  
16 1.2% 98%  
17 5% 97%  
18 6% 92%  
19 17% 87%  
20 25% 69% Median
21 16% 44%  
22 16% 28%  
23 8% 12%  
24 4% 4%  
25 0.6% 0.9% Last Result
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 0.6% 99.8%  
15 3% 99.1%  
16 8% 96%  
17 10% 88%  
18 35% 79% Median
19 15% 43%  
20 14% 28%  
21 6% 14%  
22 5% 8%  
23 2% 3% Last Result
24 0.7% 0.8%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations