Opinion Poll by Ninamedia, 11–13 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 32.3% 29.8–34.9% 29.1–35.6% 28.5–36.2% 27.4–37.5%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 13.9% 12.2–15.9% 11.7–16.5% 11.3–17.0% 10.5–18.0%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 13.4% 11.7–15.4% 11.2–15.9% 10.8–16.4% 10.0–17.5%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 9.6% 8.2–11.4% 7.8–11.9% 7.5–12.4% 6.8–13.3%
Levica 9.3% 8.4% 7.0–10.1% 6.7–10.5% 6.4–11.0% 5.8–11.8%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 8.4% 7.0–10.1% 6.7–10.5% 6.4–11.0% 5.8–11.8%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 5.0% 4.0–6.4% 3.7–6.8% 3.5–7.1% 3.0–7.8%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 4.1% 3.2–5.4% 3.0–5.8% 2.7–6.1% 2.4–6.8%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 3.2% 2.4–4.4% 2.2–4.7% 2.0–5.0% 1.7–5.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 30 28–33 27–34 27–36 25–36
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 13 11–15 11–16 10–16 10–17
Socialni demokrati 10 13 10–14 10–15 10–16 9–16
Stranka modernega centra 10 9 7–11 7–11 7–12 6–12
Levica 9 8 6–9 6–10 6–10 5–11
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 8 6–9 6–10 6–10 5–11
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 4 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 4 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.6% 99.9% Last Result
26 2% 99.3%  
27 4% 98%  
28 8% 94%  
29 16% 86%  
30 22% 70% Median
31 15% 48%  
32 12% 33%  
33 12% 22%  
34 5% 10%  
35 2% 4%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.4% 100%  
10 3% 99.6%  
11 12% 96%  
12 25% 85%  
13 24% 60% Last Result, Median
14 20% 37%  
15 11% 17%  
16 4% 6%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 1.2% 99.9%  
10 9% 98.6% Last Result
11 18% 90%  
12 19% 72%  
13 28% 54% Median
14 17% 26%  
15 5% 9%  
16 3% 3%  
17 0.3% 0.5%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 1.3% 99.9%  
7 11% 98.6%  
8 22% 88%  
9 32% 66% Median
10 21% 34% Last Result
11 11% 13%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 2% 99.9%  
6 13% 98%  
7 34% 86%  
8 25% 51% Median
9 19% 26% Last Result
10 6% 7%  
11 1.0% 1.1%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 2% 99.9%  
6 15% 98%  
7 26% 83% Last Result
8 33% 56% Median
9 15% 23%  
10 6% 8%  
11 1.2% 1.4%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100%  
1 0% 89%  
2 0% 89%  
3 2% 89%  
4 42% 87% Median
5 30% 45% Last Result
6 13% 15%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 46% 100%  
1 0% 54%  
2 0% 54%  
3 3% 54%  
4 38% 51% Median
5 11% 13% Last Result
6 2% 2%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 75% 100% Median
1 0% 25%  
2 0% 25%  
3 9% 25%  
4 14% 15% Last Result
5 1.3% 1.4%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 50 49 90% 45–52 44–53 44–54 42–55
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 46 54% 43–49 42–50 42–51 40–53
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 45 44 33% 42–48 40–49 40–50 38–51
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 44 21% 41–47 40–48 39–49 38–50
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 40 42 12% 39–46 38–46 38–47 36–49
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 41 3% 38–44 37–45 36–46 34–47
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 38 37 0% 34–40 33–41 32–42 31–44
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 35 0% 33–39 32–40 31–41 30–42
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 35 0% 31–38 31–38 30–39 29–40
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 33 0% 30–37 30–37 29–38 28–39
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 28 0% 25–31 24–32 23–33 22–34
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 25 0% 23–28 22–29 22–30 21–31
Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 25 24 0% 21–27 20–28 19–29 18–30

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.8%  
42 0.3% 99.7%  
43 0.7% 99.3%  
44 4% 98.7%  
45 5% 95%  
46 9% 90% Majority
47 12% 81%  
48 17% 69%  
49 14% 52%  
50 12% 38% Last Result
51 13% 26% Median
52 5% 13%  
53 6% 8%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.5% 0.6%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.6% 99.6%  
41 1.4% 99.0%  
42 4% 98%  
43 9% 93% Last Result
44 13% 85%  
45 17% 72%  
46 17% 54% Majority
47 10% 37% Median
48 9% 27%  
49 8% 17%  
50 5% 10%  
51 3% 5%  
52 2% 2%  
53 0.5% 0.6%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.4% 99.8%  
39 2% 99.4%  
40 3% 98%  
41 4% 95%  
42 10% 91%  
43 14% 80%  
44 20% 67%  
45 13% 46% Last Result
46 11% 33% Majority
47 10% 22% Median
48 4% 13%  
49 5% 8%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.9% 1.3%  
52 0.2% 0.4%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 1.1% 99.6% Last Result
39 2% 98%  
40 5% 96%  
41 8% 91%  
42 16% 83%  
43 14% 67% Median
44 17% 53%  
45 14% 36%  
46 9% 21% Majority
47 4% 12%  
48 4% 8%  
49 2% 4%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.6% 99.9%  
37 1.1% 99.4%  
38 5% 98%  
39 9% 93%  
40 15% 85% Last Result
41 9% 69%  
42 11% 60%  
43 14% 49% Median
44 14% 35%  
45 9% 21%  
46 8% 12% Majority
47 3% 4%  
48 0.6% 1.1%  
49 0.4% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.8%  
34 0.3% 99.7%  
35 1.4% 99.4%  
36 2% 98%  
37 5% 96%  
38 9% 91%  
39 10% 82%  
40 13% 72%  
41 12% 59%  
42 18% 47%  
43 11% 29% Last Result, Median
44 10% 18%  
45 5% 8%  
46 2% 3% Majority
47 0.7% 1.0%  
48 0.3% 0.3%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 1.0% 99.5%  
32 3% 98.5%  
33 4% 96%  
34 10% 92%  
35 10% 83%  
36 18% 72%  
37 15% 54%  
38 15% 40% Last Result
39 8% 24% Median
40 10% 17%  
41 3% 7%  
42 2% 4%  
43 0.7% 1.3%  
44 0.4% 0.6%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.8%  
30 1.1% 99.5%  
31 2% 98%  
32 6% 96%  
33 13% 90%  
34 13% 77%  
35 17% 64% Last Result
36 14% 48%  
37 13% 34%  
38 7% 21% Median
39 6% 13%  
40 4% 7%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.9% 1.2%  
43 0.3% 0.3%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.7% 99.8%  
30 3% 99.1%  
31 7% 96%  
32 10% 89%  
33 12% 79% Last Result
34 16% 67%  
35 12% 51% Median
36 17% 39%  
37 10% 21%  
38 8% 12%  
39 2% 4%  
40 1.1% 2%  
41 0.3% 0.4%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 1.0% 99.7%  
29 2% 98.7%  
30 9% 97% Last Result
31 12% 88%  
32 15% 76%  
33 20% 61%  
34 12% 41% Median
35 11% 29%  
36 7% 18%  
37 6% 10%  
38 3% 4%  
39 1.0% 1.3%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 0.5% 99.7%  
23 2% 99.2%  
24 6% 97%  
25 10% 91%  
26 11% 82%  
27 14% 70%  
28 16% 56% Last Result
29 15% 40%  
30 11% 25% Median
31 7% 14%  
32 4% 7%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.7% 1.0%  
35 0.2% 0.3%  
36 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 1.3% 99.7%  
22 5% 98%  
23 8% 93% Last Result
24 16% 85%  
25 21% 69%  
26 16% 48% Median
27 15% 32%  
28 7% 17%  
29 6% 10%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.7% 0.9%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 1.1% 99.8%  
19 2% 98.7%  
20 6% 97%  
21 9% 91%  
22 10% 82%  
23 18% 72%  
24 15% 54%  
25 11% 39% Last Result
26 13% 27% Median
27 6% 14%  
28 5% 8%  
29 1.4% 3%  
30 1.2% 1.4%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations