Opinion Poll by Mediana for Delo, 3–11 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 28.0% 25.9–30.2% 25.3–30.8% 24.8–31.4% 23.9–32.5%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 14.1% 12.5–15.9% 12.1–16.4% 11.7–16.8% 11.0–17.7%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 11.0% 9.7–12.7% 9.3–13.1% 8.9–13.5% 8.3–14.3%
Levica 9.3% 9.0% 7.7–10.5% 7.4–10.9% 7.1–11.3% 6.5–12.0%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 7.0% 5.9–8.4% 5.6–8.8% 5.4–9.1% 4.9–9.8%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 7.0% 5.9–8.4% 5.6–8.8% 5.4–9.1% 4.9–9.8%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 6.1% 5.1–7.4% 4.8–7.7% 4.6–8.1% 4.1–8.7%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 3.0% 2.4–4.0% 2.2–4.3% 2.0–4.6% 1.7–5.1%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 3.0% 2.4–4.0% 2.2–4.3% 2.0–4.6% 1.7–5.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 26 25–29 24–29 24–30 23–31
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 12 11–16 11–16 10–16 10–17
Socialni demokrati 10 10 9–12 9–12 8–13 7–13
Levica 9 8 7–9 7–10 6–10 6–11
Stranka modernega centra 10 7 5–8 5–8 5–9 4–9
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 6 5–8 5–8 5–8 4–9
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 5 4–7 4–7 4–7 4–8
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.3% 99.9%  
23 1.4% 99.6%  
24 6% 98%  
25 16% 92% Last Result
26 28% 76% Median
27 24% 48%  
28 12% 23%  
29 9% 12%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.5% 0.8%  
32 0.2% 0.3%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 3% 100%  
11 19% 97%  
12 36% 78% Median
13 8% 43% Last Result
14 8% 35%  
15 15% 26%  
16 10% 11%  
17 1.2% 1.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.5% 100%  
8 4% 99.5%  
9 19% 95%  
10 38% 76% Last Result, Median
11 28% 38%  
12 7% 10%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.2% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 5% 99.8%  
7 20% 95%  
8 41% 76% Median
9 26% 35% Last Result
10 8% 9%  
11 1.4% 2%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.5% 100%  
5 16% 98%  
6 31% 82%  
7 37% 52% Median
8 11% 15%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.5% 100%  
5 17% 98.5%  
6 35% 82% Median
7 36% 47% Last Result
8 9% 10%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0.1% 99.7%  
4 17% 99.6%  
5 37% 82% Last Result, Median
6 32% 46%  
7 13% 14%  
8 1.1% 1.1%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 80% 100% Median
1 0% 20%  
2 0% 20%  
3 17% 20%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 10%  
2 0% 10%  
3 5% 10%  
4 5% 6%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 50 42 3% 39–45 38–45 38–46 36–47
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 40 0.2% 38–42 37–43 36–44 35–45
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 39 0.1% 37–42 36–43 36–43 35–44
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 45 37 0% 34–39 33–40 32–40 31–41
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 36 0% 33–39 33–39 32–40 31–41
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 36 0% 33–38 32–39 31–39 30–40
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 30 0% 27–33 27–33 26–34 25–35
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 38 30 0% 28–33 27–33 26–34 25–35
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 29 0% 27–33 26–33 26–34 25–35
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 30 0% 27–32 26–33 26–33 25–34
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 24 0% 21–26 21–27 20–27 19–29
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 23 0% 21–26 20–26 20–27 19–28
Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 25 17 0% 15–20 15–20 14–21 13–22

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 1.0% 99.9%  
37 1.2% 99.0%  
38 3% 98%  
39 5% 95%  
40 9% 89% Median
41 13% 80%  
42 24% 67%  
43 21% 43%  
44 10% 21%  
45 8% 11%  
46 2% 3% Majority
47 0.7% 0.8%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.5% 99.8%  
36 2% 99.3%  
37 5% 97%  
38 11% 92% Median
39 21% 82%  
40 18% 61%  
41 21% 43%  
42 13% 21%  
43 5% 8% Last Result
44 2% 3%  
45 0.7% 0.9%  
46 0.1% 0.2% Majority
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.9% 99.7%  
36 5% 98.8%  
37 7% 94%  
38 17% 87% Last Result, Median
39 24% 69%  
40 16% 45%  
41 15% 29%  
42 8% 14%  
43 4% 6%  
44 2% 2%  
45 0.4% 0.5%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 1.0% 99.9%  
32 2% 98.9%  
33 6% 97%  
34 6% 92%  
35 9% 86% Median
36 20% 76%  
37 24% 56%  
38 13% 32%  
39 13% 19%  
40 4% 6%  
41 2% 2%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 1.3% 99.8%  
32 2% 98%  
33 9% 96%  
34 11% 87%  
35 12% 76% Median
36 21% 64%  
37 19% 42%  
38 10% 23%  
39 8% 12%  
40 3% 4% Last Result
41 0.8% 1.0%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.9% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.0%  
32 4% 97%  
33 6% 93%  
34 11% 87% Median
35 19% 76%  
36 25% 56%  
37 15% 32%  
38 9% 17%  
39 6% 8%  
40 1.4% 2%  
41 0.3% 0.4%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.6% 99.9%  
26 4% 99.3%  
27 8% 96%  
28 11% 87% Median
29 11% 76%  
30 24% 65%  
31 10% 41%  
32 17% 31%  
33 9% 14%  
34 3% 4%  
35 0.7% 1.1% Last Result
36 0.3% 0.4%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.9% 99.9%  
26 2% 99.0%  
27 5% 97%  
28 9% 91%  
29 14% 82% Median
30 21% 68%  
31 23% 47%  
32 11% 24%  
33 9% 13%  
34 3% 4%  
35 0.7% 0.9%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.9% 99.9%  
26 5% 99.0%  
27 13% 94%  
28 14% 81% Median
29 18% 67%  
30 21% 49% Last Result
31 8% 28%  
32 9% 19%  
33 8% 11%  
34 3% 3%  
35 0.4% 0.5%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 1.3% 99.8%  
26 4% 98.6%  
27 8% 95%  
28 16% 87%  
29 15% 71% Median
30 22% 55%  
31 17% 33%  
32 9% 16%  
33 6% 7% Last Result
34 1.2% 2%  
35 0.3% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.9% 100%  
20 4% 99.1%  
21 10% 95%  
22 15% 86% Median
23 17% 70%  
24 15% 53%  
25 16% 39%  
26 16% 23%  
27 5% 7%  
28 1.4% 2% Last Result
29 0.3% 0.5%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 1.1% 100%  
20 6% 98.8%  
21 14% 93%  
22 21% 79% Median
23 20% 58% Last Result
24 12% 37%  
25 10% 25%  
26 11% 15%  
27 3% 5%  
28 1.0% 1.1%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.7% 99.9%  
14 4% 99.2%  
15 10% 95%  
16 19% 85%  
17 19% 66% Median
18 20% 47%  
19 14% 26%  
20 8% 12%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.5% 0.9%  
23 0.3% 0.4%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations