Opinion Poll by Ninamedia, 9–11 October 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 24.9% | 24.0% | 22.0–26.2% | 21.5–26.8% | 21.0–27.3% | 20.1–28.4% |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 12.6% | 19.0% | 17.2–21.0% | 16.7–21.6% | 16.3–22.1% | 15.4–23.1% |
| Socialni demokrati | 9.9% | 17.0% | 15.3–18.9% | 14.8–19.5% | 14.4–20.0% | 13.6–20.9% |
| Levica | 9.3% | 10.0% | 8.7–11.6% | 8.3–12.1% | 8.0–12.5% | 7.4–13.3% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.9–8.4% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.3–9.1% | 4.8–9.8% |
| Stranka modernega centra | 9.7% | 6.0% | 5.0–7.3% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.5–8.0% | 4.0–8.7% |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.0–7.3% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.5–8.0% | 4.0–8.7% |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.2–5.1% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.8–5.7% | 2.4–6.3% |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.3% | 2.0–4.6% | 1.7–5.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 25 | 23 | 21–25 | 20–26 | 19–27 | 18–28 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 13 | 18 | 16–20 | 15–21 | 15–22 | 14–22 |
| Socialni demokrati | 10 | 16 | 14–18 | 14–19 | 13–19 | 13–20 |
| Levica | 9 | 9 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 7–12 | 6–13 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7 | 6 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 |
| Stranka modernega centra | 10 | 5 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 3–8 |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 5 | 5 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 0–8 |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5 | 3 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 20 | 7% | 97% | |
| 21 | 13% | 91% | |
| 22 | 25% | 78% | |
| 23 | 19% | 52% | Median |
| 24 | 14% | 34% | |
| 25 | 11% | 19% | Last Result |
| 26 | 5% | 9% | |
| 27 | 3% | 4% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 14 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 8% | 98.9% | |
| 16 | 16% | 91% | |
| 17 | 20% | 75% | |
| 18 | 25% | 56% | Median |
| 19 | 16% | 31% | |
| 20 | 8% | 15% | |
| 21 | 4% | 7% | |
| 22 | 3% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 13 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 14 | 13% | 96% | |
| 15 | 25% | 83% | |
| 16 | 21% | 58% | Median |
| 17 | 20% | 37% | |
| 18 | 10% | 16% | |
| 19 | 4% | 6% | |
| 20 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Levica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 7 | 5% | 99.5% | |
| 8 | 26% | 95% | |
| 9 | 30% | 69% | Last Result, Median |
| 10 | 26% | 39% | |
| 11 | 9% | 13% | |
| 12 | 3% | 4% | |
| 13 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 14% | 98.7% | |
| 6 | 35% | 85% | Median |
| 7 | 36% | 50% | Last Result |
| 8 | 12% | 14% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka modernega centra
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 4 | 12% | 99.3% | |
| 5 | 40% | 87% | Median |
| 6 | 33% | 47% | |
| 7 | 12% | 14% | |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 4 | 14% | 98.9% | |
| 5 | 40% | 85% | Last Result, Median |
| 6 | 34% | 45% | |
| 7 | 8% | 11% | |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka Alenke Bratušek
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 47% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 53% | |
| 2 | 0% | 53% | |
| 3 | 7% | 53% | Median |
| 4 | 36% | 46% | |
| 5 | 9% | 10% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 85% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 15% | |
| 2 | 0% | 15% | |
| 3 | 6% | 15% | |
| 4 | 8% | 9% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 50 | 53 | 100% | 50–56 | 49–58 | 49–58 | 47–59 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 45 | 51 | 99.1% | 48–55 | 47–56 | 46–56 | 45–58 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 43 | 47 | 73% | 43–50 | 43–51 | 42–51 | 41–53 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 35 | 45 | 47% | 43–49 | 42–50 | 41–51 | 40–52 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 43 | 46 | 59% | 43–49 | 42–50 | 41–51 | 40–53 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra | 40 | 46 | 52% | 43–49 | 42–50 | 41–50 | 40–52 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 38 | 45 | 36% | 42–48 | 41–49 | 40–50 | 39–51 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 30 | 40 | 1.1% | 37–43 | 37–44 | 36–45 | 35–46 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca | 38 | 40 | 2% | 38–44 | 37–45 | 36–45 | 35–47 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 28 | 39 | 0.6% | 36–42 | 36–44 | 35–44 | 34–46 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra | 33 | 39 | 0.2% | 36–42 | 36–43 | 35–44 | 34–45 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati | 23 | 34 | 0% | 31–37 | 31–38 | 30–38 | 29–39 |
| Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 25 | 27 | 0% | 24–30 | 23–30 | 23–30 | 22–32 |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.2% | 100% | Majority |
| 47 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 1.5% | 99.2% | |
| 49 | 4% | 98% | |
| 50 | 9% | 93% | Last Result |
| 51 | 8% | 84% | |
| 52 | 10% | 76% | |
| 53 | 23% | 66% | Median |
| 54 | 15% | 44% | |
| 55 | 9% | 29% | |
| 56 | 10% | 20% | |
| 57 | 4% | 10% | |
| 58 | 4% | 5% | |
| 59 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.7% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 46 | 2% | 99.1% | Majority |
| 47 | 4% | 97% | |
| 48 | 6% | 92% | |
| 49 | 15% | 86% | |
| 50 | 16% | 71% | Median |
| 51 | 12% | 55% | |
| 52 | 12% | 43% | |
| 53 | 12% | 31% | |
| 54 | 8% | 19% | |
| 55 | 6% | 11% | |
| 56 | 3% | 5% | |
| 57 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 42 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 43 | 8% | 97% | Last Result |
| 44 | 6% | 89% | |
| 45 | 10% | 83% | |
| 46 | 18% | 73% | Majority |
| 47 | 19% | 55% | Median |
| 48 | 12% | 36% | |
| 49 | 11% | 24% | |
| 50 | 7% | 13% | |
| 51 | 4% | 6% | |
| 52 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 41 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 42 | 5% | 97% | |
| 43 | 10% | 91% | |
| 44 | 16% | 81% | |
| 45 | 17% | 64% | Median |
| 46 | 15% | 47% | Majority |
| 47 | 8% | 33% | |
| 48 | 11% | 24% | |
| 49 | 5% | 13% | |
| 50 | 4% | 8% | |
| 51 | 2% | 3% | |
| 52 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 41 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 42 | 4% | 97% | |
| 43 | 9% | 94% | Last Result |
| 44 | 10% | 84% | |
| 45 | 16% | 74% | |
| 46 | 24% | 59% | Median, Majority |
| 47 | 9% | 35% | |
| 48 | 10% | 26% | |
| 49 | 7% | 16% | |
| 50 | 5% | 9% | |
| 51 | 2% | 4% | |
| 52 | 2% | 2% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 1.0% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 41 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 42 | 4% | 96% | |
| 43 | 13% | 92% | |
| 44 | 13% | 79% | |
| 45 | 14% | 66% | Median |
| 46 | 18% | 52% | Majority |
| 47 | 7% | 34% | |
| 48 | 12% | 27% | |
| 49 | 7% | 15% | |
| 50 | 5% | 7% | |
| 51 | 2% | 2% | |
| 52 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 39 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 40 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 41 | 6% | 96% | |
| 42 | 12% | 90% | |
| 43 | 18% | 79% | |
| 44 | 10% | 61% | Median |
| 45 | 14% | 51% | |
| 46 | 10% | 36% | Majority |
| 47 | 14% | 26% | |
| 48 | 6% | 12% | |
| 49 | 3% | 6% | |
| 50 | 2% | 3% | |
| 51 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 36 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 37 | 7% | 96% | |
| 38 | 15% | 89% | |
| 39 | 14% | 74% | |
| 40 | 16% | 59% | Median |
| 41 | 17% | 44% | |
| 42 | 8% | 27% | |
| 43 | 9% | 19% | |
| 44 | 5% | 10% | |
| 45 | 4% | 5% | |
| 46 | 0.6% | 1.1% | Majority |
| 47 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 36 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 37 | 5% | 97% | |
| 38 | 9% | 92% | Last Result |
| 39 | 14% | 83% | |
| 40 | 21% | 69% | |
| 41 | 17% | 48% | Median |
| 42 | 10% | 31% | |
| 43 | 9% | 21% | |
| 44 | 6% | 12% | |
| 45 | 4% | 6% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 2% | Majority |
| 47 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 35 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 36 | 8% | 96% | |
| 37 | 15% | 88% | |
| 38 | 18% | 72% | |
| 39 | 12% | 55% | Median |
| 40 | 17% | 43% | |
| 41 | 9% | 26% | |
| 42 | 8% | 18% | |
| 43 | 4% | 9% | |
| 44 | 3% | 5% | |
| 45 | 2% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.4% | 0.6% | Majority |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 34 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 36 | 10% | 96% | |
| 37 | 13% | 87% | |
| 38 | 15% | 73% | |
| 39 | 14% | 58% | Median |
| 40 | 15% | 44% | |
| 41 | 8% | 29% | |
| 42 | 12% | 21% | |
| 43 | 6% | 9% | |
| 44 | 2% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 47 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 31 | 14% | 96% | |
| 32 | 14% | 82% | |
| 33 | 17% | 68% | |
| 34 | 15% | 51% | Median |
| 35 | 14% | 36% | |
| 36 | 9% | 21% | |
| 37 | 6% | 12% | |
| 38 | 5% | 7% | |
| 39 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 23 | 4% | 98% | |
| 24 | 10% | 95% | |
| 25 | 10% | 85% | Last Result |
| 26 | 18% | 75% | Median |
| 27 | 19% | 56% | |
| 28 | 12% | 37% | |
| 29 | 15% | 25% | |
| 30 | 8% | 10% | |
| 31 | 2% | 2% | |
| 32 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ninamedia
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 9–11 October 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 700
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.13%