Opinion Poll by Mediana, 1 November 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 31.0% 28.9–33.3% 28.3–33.9% 27.8–34.5% 26.8–35.6%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 13.0% 11.5–14.7% 11.1–15.2% 10.7–15.6% 10.0–16.5%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 11.0% 9.7–12.7% 9.3–13.1% 8.9–13.5% 8.3–14.3%
Levica 9.3% 10.1% 8.8–11.6% 8.4–12.1% 8.1–12.5% 7.5–13.3%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 8.0% 6.8–9.4% 6.5–9.8% 6.2–10.2% 5.7–10.9%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 5.0% 4.1–6.2% 3.8–6.5% 3.6–6.8% 3.2–7.4%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 5.0% 4.1–6.2% 3.8–6.5% 3.6–6.8% 3.2–7.4%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 5.0% 4.1–6.2% 3.8–6.5% 3.6–6.8% 3.2–7.4%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 4.0% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.4% 2.8–5.7% 2.5–6.3%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 3.0% 2.4–4.0% 2.2–4.3% 2.0–4.6% 1.7–5.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 30 28–32 27–33 27–33 25–34
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 12 11–14 10–14 10–15 9–16
Socialni demokrati 10 10 9–12 8–12 8–13 8–13
Levica 9 9 8–11 8–11 8–12 7–12
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 7 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
Stranka modernega centra 10 4 3–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 4 4–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 4 4–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 3 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.5% 99.8% Last Result
26 1.2% 99.3%  
27 6% 98%  
28 29% 92%  
29 13% 63%  
30 23% 50% Median
31 16% 28%  
32 4% 12%  
33 6% 7%  
34 0.8% 1.3%  
35 0.2% 0.5%  
36 0.3% 0.3%  
37 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 1.2% 100%  
10 6% 98.8%  
11 20% 93%  
12 36% 73% Median
13 16% 37% Last Result
14 17% 21%  
15 3% 4%  
16 0.6% 0.6%  
17 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 5% 99.8%  
9 12% 94%  
10 35% 82% Last Result, Median
11 36% 48%  
12 7% 11%  
13 4% 4%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 2% 99.9%  
8 31% 98%  
9 26% 67% Last Result, Median
10 29% 40%  
11 9% 12%  
12 3% 3%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.0% 100%  
6 18% 99.0%  
7 44% 81% Last Result, Median
8 23% 37%  
9 12% 14%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 0% 91%  
2 0% 91%  
3 7% 91%  
4 37% 84% Median
5 40% 47%  
6 6% 7%  
7 0.7% 0.8%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 0% 91%  
2 0% 91%  
3 1.3% 91%  
4 61% 90% Median
5 18% 29% Last Result
6 11% 11%  
7 0.7% 0.7%  
8 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100%  
1 0% 92%  
2 0% 92%  
3 0.5% 92%  
4 50% 91% Median
5 34% 42% Last Result
6 7% 8%  
7 0.6% 0.6%  
8 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 41% 100%  
1 0% 59%  
2 0% 59%  
3 13% 59% Median
4 41% 47% Last Result
5 5% 6%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 11%  
2 0% 11%  
3 2% 11%  
4 9% 9%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 46 65% 44–48 43–50 43–50 40–52
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 42 3% 39–44 39–45 38–46 37–48
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 50 42 7% 40–45 38–46 37–46 35–48
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 38 0.8% 35–41 34–42 33–43 31–46
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 43 35 0% 32–38 30–38 30–39 28–41
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 34 0% 31–37 30–38 29–38 28–41
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 34 0% 31–37 30–37 29–38 28–41
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 31 0% 28–34 26–35 26–35 24–37
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 30 0% 28–32 27–33 26–34 25–36
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 27 0% 24–29 23–30 22–31 20–32
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 27 0% 24–29 23–30 22–31 21–32
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 23 0% 21–25 20–26 19–26 18–27
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 19 0% 15–21 14–22 13–23 12–23

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.6%  
41 0.4% 99.4%  
42 1.3% 98.9%  
43 6% 98% Last Result
44 14% 91%  
45 13% 77%  
46 34% 65% Median, Majority
47 14% 30%  
48 7% 17%  
49 4% 10%  
50 4% 6%  
51 1.3% 2%  
52 0.3% 0.7%  
53 0.2% 0.4%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.8%  
37 0.7% 99.6%  
38 3% 99.0% Last Result
39 6% 96%  
40 13% 90%  
41 17% 77%  
42 32% 60% Median
43 14% 28%  
44 5% 14%  
45 6% 10%  
46 2% 3% Majority
47 0.6% 2%  
48 0.7% 1.0%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.5% 99.9%  
36 1.0% 99.4%  
37 2% 98%  
38 4% 97%  
39 2% 93%  
40 6% 91%  
41 8% 84% Median
42 34% 76%  
43 9% 41%  
44 21% 32%  
45 4% 11%  
46 5% 7% Majority
47 0.9% 2%  
48 0.5% 0.9%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
51 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 0.3% 99.7%  
32 1.0% 99.4%  
33 3% 98%  
34 3% 95%  
35 2% 92%  
36 9% 90%  
37 8% 80% Median
38 34% 73%  
39 7% 39%  
40 18% 32%  
41 5% 13%  
42 6% 8%  
43 1.0% 3%  
44 0.8% 2%  
45 0.1% 0.9% Last Result
46 0.8% 0.8% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.8% 99.8%  
29 0.5% 99.0%  
30 4% 98%  
31 3% 95%  
32 4% 91%  
33 9% 87%  
34 11% 79% Median
35 27% 67%  
36 15% 40%  
37 15% 25%  
38 6% 10%  
39 2% 4%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.3% 0.5%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
44 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.4% 100%  
28 1.1% 99.5%  
29 2% 98%  
30 2% 96%  
31 6% 95%  
32 7% 89%  
33 16% 82% Median
34 26% 67%  
35 15% 41% Last Result
36 15% 27%  
37 7% 12%  
38 3% 5%  
39 1.0% 2%  
40 0.3% 1.2%  
41 0.8% 0.9%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0.3% 99.9%  
28 0.3% 99.7%  
29 2% 99.3%  
30 3% 97%  
31 7% 94%  
32 6% 88%  
33 18% 81% Median
34 27% 64%  
35 8% 37%  
36 17% 29%  
37 7% 12%  
38 2% 5%  
39 1.2% 2%  
40 0.4% 1.2% Last Result
41 0.8% 0.9%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.9%  
24 0.6% 99.6%  
25 2% 99.1%  
26 3% 98%  
27 4% 95%  
28 7% 91%  
29 8% 84%  
30 7% 76% Median
31 31% 69%  
32 13% 38%  
33 14% 25%  
34 5% 10%  
35 3% 6%  
36 1.2% 2%  
37 1.0% 1.1%  
38 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
39 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.3% 100%  
25 0.6% 99.7%  
26 3% 99.1%  
27 5% 96%  
28 10% 91%  
29 20% 81% Median
30 21% 61% Last Result
31 19% 40%  
32 14% 21%  
33 3% 7%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.6% 2%  
36 0.9% 1.0%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.7% 100%  
21 1.4% 99.3%  
22 2% 98%  
23 3% 96%  
24 4% 93%  
25 10% 89%  
26 14% 79% Median
27 29% 65%  
28 23% 36% Last Result
29 3% 13%  
30 7% 10%  
31 1.5% 3%  
32 1.4% 2%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 0.6% 99.7%  
22 3% 99.1%  
23 6% 96%  
24 5% 90%  
25 9% 85%  
26 18% 76% Median
27 24% 59%  
28 12% 35%  
29 13% 22%  
30 5% 9%  
31 2% 4%  
32 1.1% 1.3%  
33 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 1.0% 99.9%  
19 4% 99.0%  
20 3% 95%  
21 17% 92%  
22 16% 75% Median
23 32% 59% Last Result
24 15% 27%  
25 7% 12%  
26 3% 5%  
27 1.4% 2%  
28 0.3% 0.4%  
29 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.1% 99.9%  
12 0.4% 99.8%  
13 2% 99.4%  
14 4% 97%  
15 4% 93%  
16 6% 90%  
17 4% 84%  
18 18% 80% Median
19 25% 62%  
20 22% 37%  
21 9% 15%  
22 3% 6%  
23 3% 3%  
24 0.2% 0.3%  
25 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
26 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations