Opinion Poll by Parsifal SC, 7 November 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 29.0% 26.9–31.3% 26.3–31.9% 25.8–32.5% 24.8–33.6%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 18.0% 16.2–20.0% 15.7–20.5% 15.3–21.0% 14.5–22.0%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 15.0% 13.4–16.9% 13.0–17.4% 12.6–17.8% 11.8–18.8%
Levica 9.3% 5.9% 5.0–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.4–8.0% 4.0–8.6%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 5.9% 5.0–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.4–8.0% 4.0–8.6%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 5.9% 5.0–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.4–8.0% 4.0–8.6%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 5.9% 5.0–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.4–8.0% 4.0–8.6%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 3.0% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.3% 2.0–4.5% 1.7–5.0%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 3.0% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.3% 2.0–4.5% 1.7–5.0%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 3.0% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.3% 2.0–4.5% 1.7–5.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 29 26–31 26–31 25–32 24–33
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 17 16–19 15–20 15–20 14–21
Socialni demokrati 10 14 13–16 12–17 12–17 11–18
Levica 9 6 4–6 4–7 4–7 4–8
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 6 5–7 4–7 4–7 4–7
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 6 5–7 4–7 4–7 0–8
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 5 5–7 4–7 4–7 4–7
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0 0–3 0–4 0–4

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 1.3% 99.8%  
25 3% 98.5% Last Result
26 8% 95%  
27 16% 88%  
28 16% 71%  
29 30% 55% Median
30 7% 25%  
31 15% 18%  
32 3% 4%  
33 0.6% 1.0%  
34 0.4% 0.4%  
35 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.3% 100% Last Result
14 2% 99.7%  
15 7% 98%  
16 12% 90%  
17 37% 79% Median
18 14% 42%  
19 20% 28%  
20 6% 8%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.3% 0.4%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100% Last Result
11 0.9% 99.9%  
12 5% 99.0%  
13 17% 94%  
14 36% 76% Median
15 13% 40%  
16 21% 27%  
17 5% 6%  
18 0.9% 1.2%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 11% 99.7%  
5 27% 89%  
6 52% 62% Median
7 9% 9%  
8 0.6% 0.6%  
9 0% 0% Last Result

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0.2% 99.9%  
4 9% 99.7%  
5 24% 91%  
6 56% 67% Median
7 10% 11% Last Result
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 0% 99.5%  
2 0% 99.5%  
3 0% 99.5%  
4 8% 99.5% Last Result
5 41% 92%  
6 40% 51% Median
7 10% 11%  
8 0.6% 0.6%  
9 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0.1% 99.9%  
4 10% 99.9%  
5 56% 90% Median
6 24% 34%  
7 10% 10%  
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Median
1 0% 17%  
2 0% 17%  
3 10% 17%  
4 7% 7%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 0.6% 4%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Median
1 0% 5%  
2 0% 5%  
3 1.5% 5%  
4 4% 4%  
5 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 46 70% 44–49 42–50 42–50 41–52
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 46 67% 43–49 42–50 42–50 40–51
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 50 38 0.2% 36–42 35–42 35–43 34–44
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 37 0% 35–41 35–42 34–42 33–43
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 38 0.1% 36–41 35–42 34–42 33–44
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 37 0% 35–41 34–41 34–42 33–42
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 38 0.1% 36–41 35–42 34–42 33–44
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 43 32 0% 30–36 30–37 29–37 28–39
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 32 0% 30–36 30–36 29–37 28–39
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 32 0% 30–35 29–36 29–37 27–38
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 32 0% 30–35 29–36 29–36 27–37
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 31 0% 30–35 29–35 28–36 27–37
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 15 0% 13–18 13–19 12–19 11–21

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.6% 99.7%  
42 5% 99.1%  
43 4% 94% Last Result
44 10% 90%  
45 10% 80%  
46 29% 70% Median, Majority
47 17% 42%  
48 12% 25%  
49 5% 13%  
50 6% 8%  
51 1.3% 2%  
52 0.4% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100% Last Result
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.7%  
41 0.8% 99.5%  
42 6% 98.7%  
43 5% 93%  
44 11% 88%  
45 10% 77%  
46 29% 67% Median, Majority
47 16% 38%  
48 11% 22%  
49 4% 11%  
50 6% 7%  
51 0.7% 1.2%  
52 0.3% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 2% 99.6%  
35 3% 98%  
36 13% 95%  
37 22% 81% Median
38 13% 60%  
39 11% 46%  
40 14% 35%  
41 10% 21%  
42 9% 11%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.7% 1.1%  
45 0.2% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.2% Majority
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.9%  
33 0.9% 99.7%  
34 3% 98.8%  
35 6% 95% Last Result
36 17% 90%  
37 25% 72% Median
38 16% 48%  
39 10% 32%  
40 9% 22%  
41 8% 13%  
42 5% 6%  
43 0.4% 0.7%  
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.5% 99.8%  
34 2% 99.3%  
35 4% 97%  
36 14% 93%  
37 22% 79% Median
38 14% 57%  
39 11% 43%  
40 13% 33%  
41 10% 19%  
42 8% 10%  
43 1.3% 2%  
44 0.5% 0.8%  
45 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.9%  
33 1.3% 99.5%  
34 4% 98%  
35 7% 94%  
36 19% 88%  
37 25% 69% Median
38 15% 44%  
39 9% 29%  
40 8% 20%  
41 7% 11%  
42 4% 5%  
43 0.3% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.8% 99.7%  
34 3% 99.0%  
35 5% 96%  
36 15% 92%  
37 23% 76% Median
38 14% 54%  
39 10% 40%  
40 13% 30% Last Result
41 9% 17%  
42 7% 9%  
43 1.0% 2%  
44 0.3% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 0.7% 99.7%  
29 2% 99.0%  
30 12% 97%  
31 24% 85% Median
32 11% 61%  
33 8% 50%  
34 11% 42%  
35 19% 30%  
36 6% 12%  
37 4% 6%  
38 0.9% 2%  
39 0.6% 0.9%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.3% 100%  
28 0.9% 99.7%  
29 3% 98.8%  
30 12% 96%  
31 24% 83% Median
32 12% 59%  
33 8% 47%  
34 11% 39%  
35 18% 28%  
36 5% 10%  
37 4% 5%  
38 0.6% 1.3% Last Result
39 0.5% 0.6%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.4% 99.9%  
28 1.2% 99.5%  
29 4% 98%  
30 13% 95%  
31 26% 81% Median
32 12% 56%  
33 8% 43% Last Result
34 10% 36%  
35 17% 25%  
36 4% 8%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.4% 0.9%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.4% 99.8%  
28 2% 99.4% Last Result
29 4% 98%  
30 15% 94%  
31 28% 79% Median
32 15% 51%  
33 8% 36%  
34 9% 28%  
35 14% 19%  
36 4% 5%  
37 1.1% 1.5%  
38 0.3% 0.4%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.7% 99.8%  
28 2% 99.1%  
29 5% 97%  
30 16% 92%  
31 29% 76% Median
32 15% 47%  
33 7% 32%  
34 8% 25%  
35 13% 17%  
36 3% 4%  
37 0.6% 0.7%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.7% 100%  
12 3% 99.3%  
13 13% 97%  
14 32% 84% Median
15 8% 52%  
16 22% 44%  
17 7% 21%  
18 8% 14%  
19 4% 6%  
20 1.5% 2%  
21 0.5% 0.8%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations