Opinion Poll by Ninamedia for Dnevnik and RTV Slovenija, 19–20 November 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 23.7% 21.5–26.2% 20.8–26.9% 20.3–27.5% 19.2–28.7%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 19.4% 17.3–21.7% 16.8–22.4% 16.3–23.0% 15.3–24.1%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 16.0% 14.2–18.2% 13.6–18.9% 13.2–19.4% 12.3–20.5%
Levica 9.3% 10.6% 9.1–12.5% 8.7–13.1% 8.3–13.5% 7.6–14.5%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 8.0% 6.7–9.7% 6.3–10.2% 6.0–10.6% 5.4–11.5%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 6.5% 5.3–8.1% 5.0–8.6% 4.7–9.0% 4.2–9.8%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 4.9% 3.8–6.3% 3.6–6.7% 3.3–7.0% 2.9–7.8%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 4.9% 3.8–6.3% 3.6–6.7% 3.3–7.0% 2.9–7.8%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 3.0% 2.2–4.2% 2.0–4.5% 1.8–4.8% 1.5–5.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 22 20–25 19–26 19–27 18–29
Socialni demokrati 10 19 16–21 15–21 15–22 14–23
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 15 13–17 13–18 12–18 11–19
Levica 9 10 8–12 8–12 7–13 7–14
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 7 6–9 6–9 5–10 5–11
Stranka modernega centra 10 6 5–7 4–8 4–8 4–9
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 4 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–5

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 1.4% 99.8%  
19 5% 98%  
20 12% 94%  
21 17% 82%  
22 23% 65% Median
23 14% 42%  
24 10% 28%  
25 10% 18% Last Result
26 5% 8%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.3% 0.9%  
29 0.5% 0.5%  
30 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 1.0% 99.9%  
15 4% 98.8%  
16 10% 95%  
17 16% 84%  
18 15% 68%  
19 21% 53% Median
20 15% 32%  
21 12% 16%  
22 3% 5%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.6% 99.9%  
12 4% 99.3%  
13 12% 96% Last Result
14 22% 84%  
15 23% 62% Median
16 19% 39%  
17 15% 20%  
18 4% 5%  
19 1.5% 2%  
20 0.4% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 3% 99.9%  
8 9% 97%  
9 20% 88% Last Result
10 36% 68% Median
11 19% 32%  
12 9% 14%  
13 4% 4%  
14 0.6% 0.7%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 4% 99.7%  
6 21% 96%  
7 31% 75% Last Result, Median
8 27% 43%  
9 12% 16%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.6% 0.8%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0.2% 99.8%  
4 7% 99.6%  
5 28% 92%  
6 36% 64% Median
7 20% 29%  
8 8% 9%  
9 1.0% 1.2%  
10 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100%  
1 0% 86%  
2 0% 86%  
3 4% 86%  
4 40% 82% Median
5 32% 42% Last Result
6 8% 10%  
7 1.1% 1.3%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100%  
1 0% 85%  
2 0% 85%  
3 5% 85%  
4 41% 80% Last Result, Median
5 26% 38%  
6 11% 12%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Median
1 0% 12%  
2 0% 12%  
3 2% 12%  
4 9% 9%  
5 0.8% 0.9% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek 50 51 98.7% 48–54 47–55 46–56 45–59
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 45 51 98% 47–54 47–55 46–56 44–57
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 47 73% 43–50 43–51 42–52 41–54
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 45 46% 41–48 41–49 40–50 38–51
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek 43 44 26% 41–47 40–48 39–49 37–51
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 38 44 20% 40–47 39–48 38–49 37–50
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 41 7% 38–45 37–46 37–46 35–48
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 41 2% 38–44 37–45 36–45 35–47
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra 33 39 0.7% 36–43 36–44 35–44 33–46
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 37 0.1% 34–41 34–42 33–43 32–44
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 38 0% 34–41 33–41 33–42 31–44
Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca 23 34 0% 31–37 30–38 29–38 28–40
Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 25 29 0% 26–31 24–32 23–33 21–34

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.9%  
45 0.9% 99.6%  
46 2% 98.7% Majority
47 5% 97%  
48 5% 92%  
49 10% 87%  
50 12% 77% Last Result
51 18% 65% Median
52 17% 47%  
53 11% 30%  
54 9% 19%  
55 5% 10%  
56 3% 5%  
57 1.1% 2%  
58 0.3% 0.9%  
59 0.5% 0.6%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.5% 99.7%  
45 1.4% 99.2% Last Result
46 3% 98% Majority
47 7% 95%  
48 6% 89%  
49 12% 83%  
50 14% 71%  
51 17% 57% Median
52 17% 41%  
53 9% 24%  
54 7% 15%  
55 4% 7%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.8% 1.2%  
58 0.2% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
41 0.9% 99.5%  
42 4% 98.6%  
43 5% 95%  
44 8% 90%  
45 8% 82%  
46 15% 73% Majority
47 18% 58% Median
48 14% 40%  
49 10% 26%  
50 8% 15%  
51 4% 8%  
52 3% 4%  
53 0.9% 1.4%  
54 0.3% 0.5%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.4% 99.7%  
39 1.2% 99.3%  
40 3% 98%  
41 5% 95%  
42 10% 90%  
43 9% 80%  
44 12% 71%  
45 13% 59% Median
46 22% 46% Majority
47 10% 24%  
48 6% 14%  
49 4% 7%  
50 3% 4%  
51 0.6% 1.0%  
52 0.2% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.4% 99.8%  
38 1.2% 99.4%  
39 3% 98%  
40 5% 95%  
41 6% 90%  
42 12% 85%  
43 14% 72% Last Result
44 18% 59% Median
45 15% 41%  
46 9% 26% Majority
47 8% 16%  
48 4% 8%  
49 2% 4%  
50 0.8% 1.5%  
51 0.5% 0.6%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.8% 99.7%  
38 2% 98.9% Last Result
39 4% 97%  
40 5% 94%  
41 8% 88%  
42 13% 80%  
43 16% 67%  
44 18% 51% Median
45 13% 33%  
46 8% 20% Majority
47 6% 12%  
48 3% 6%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.4% 0.6%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.9%  
35 0.5% 99.6%  
36 1.4% 99.1%  
37 4% 98%  
38 7% 94%  
39 13% 87%  
40 11% 74%  
41 13% 63% Median
42 18% 50%  
43 11% 31% Last Result
44 7% 20%  
45 6% 13%  
46 4% 7% Majority
47 2% 2%  
48 0.4% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 1.1% 99.8%  
36 3% 98.7%  
37 6% 96%  
38 9% 90%  
39 8% 81%  
40 12% 74%  
41 20% 62% Median
42 16% 42%  
43 12% 26%  
44 5% 14%  
45 7% 9%  
46 1.3% 2% Majority
47 0.7% 1.1%  
48 0.3% 0.5%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
34 1.4% 99.5%  
35 3% 98%  
36 6% 96%  
37 8% 89%  
38 15% 81%  
39 17% 66%  
40 12% 49% Median
41 17% 37%  
42 9% 20%  
43 4% 11%  
44 4% 7%  
45 1.5% 2%  
46 0.4% 0.7% Majority
47 0.1% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 1.0% 99.6%  
33 3% 98.7%  
34 6% 96%  
35 13% 90%  
36 15% 77%  
37 14% 62% Median
38 12% 48% Last Result
39 16% 36%  
40 9% 20%  
41 6% 11%  
42 3% 5%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.3% 0.6%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.8% 99.7%  
32 1.3% 98.9%  
33 3% 98%  
34 6% 94%  
35 9% 88%  
36 10% 79%  
37 15% 69%  
38 19% 53% Median
39 12% 34%  
40 11% 22%  
41 6% 11%  
42 2% 5%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0.5% 0.7%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Socialni demokrati – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.2% 100%  
28 1.1% 99.7%  
29 3% 98.7%  
30 6% 96%  
31 9% 90%  
32 12% 81%  
33 18% 69%  
34 16% 51% Median
35 12% 35%  
36 11% 23%  
37 6% 11%  
38 4% 5%  
39 0.6% 1.3%  
40 0.6% 0.8%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.5% 99.9%  
22 0.6% 99.4%  
23 2% 98.8%  
24 3% 97%  
25 3% 94% Last Result
26 11% 91%  
27 14% 79%  
28 14% 65%  
29 17% 51% Median
30 17% 34%  
31 9% 17%  
32 4% 8%  
33 3% 4%  
34 1.3% 2%  
35 0.2% 0.3%  
36 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations