Opinion Poll by Parsifal SC, 4–7 December 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 24.9% | 27.9% | 25.9–30.2% | 25.3–30.8% | 24.8–31.4% | 23.8–32.4% |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 12.6% | 16.0% | 14.4–17.9% | 13.9–18.4% | 13.5–18.9% | 12.7–19.8% |
| Socialni demokrati | 9.9% | 16.0% | 14.4–17.9% | 13.9–18.4% | 13.5–18.9% | 12.7–19.8% |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4.2% | 8.0% | 6.8–9.5% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.2–10.2% | 5.7–11.0% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.9–8.4% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.4–9.1% | 4.9–9.8% |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 4.9% | 7.0% | 5.9–8.4% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.4–9.1% | 4.9–9.8% |
| Levica | 9.3% | 6.0% | 5.0–7.3% | 4.8–7.7% | 4.5–8.0% | 4.1–8.7% |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.1–5.0% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.7–5.6% | 2.4–6.2% |
| Stranka modernega centra | 9.7% | 2.9% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.9–4.5% | 1.7–5.0% |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.2–3.3% | 1.0–3.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 25 | 28 | 25–30 | 25–30 | 24–31 | 23–32 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 13 | 15 | 14–18 | 13–19 | 13–19 | 12–19 |
| Socialni demokrati | 10 | 16 | 14–18 | 13–18 | 13–18 | 12–19 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4 | 7 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 5–11 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7 | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 5 | 7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 4–9 |
| Levica | 9 | 6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Stranka modernega centra | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 24 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 25 | 10% | 96% | Last Result |
| 26 | 9% | 87% | |
| 27 | 22% | 77% | |
| 28 | 33% | 56% | Median |
| 29 | 10% | 23% | |
| 30 | 8% | 12% | |
| 31 | 3% | 4% | |
| 32 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 8% | 98.9% | Last Result |
| 14 | 20% | 91% | |
| 15 | 34% | 72% | Median |
| 16 | 11% | 38% | |
| 17 | 15% | 27% | |
| 18 | 7% | 12% | |
| 19 | 5% | 5% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 6% | 99.2% | |
| 14 | 9% | 93% | |
| 15 | 31% | 84% | |
| 16 | 20% | 53% | Median |
| 17 | 24% | 34% | |
| 18 | 8% | 10% | |
| 19 | 2% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 9% | 98.8% | |
| 7 | 40% | 90% | Median |
| 8 | 33% | 50% | |
| 9 | 11% | 17% | |
| 10 | 5% | 6% | |
| 11 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 5 | 7% | 99.2% | |
| 6 | 36% | 92% | |
| 7 | 30% | 56% | Last Result, Median |
| 8 | 24% | 26% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 5 | 10% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 6 | 33% | 89% | |
| 7 | 38% | 56% | Median |
| 8 | 15% | 18% | |
| 9 | 3% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Levica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 14% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 31% | 86% | |
| 6 | 42% | 55% | Median |
| 7 | 11% | 13% | |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka Alenke Bratušek
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 52% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 48% | |
| 2 | 0% | 48% | |
| 3 | 6% | 48% | |
| 4 | 33% | 43% | |
| 5 | 9% | 9% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka modernega centra
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 6% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 4 | 5% | 5% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Slovenska ljudska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 43 | 50 | 97% | 47–53 | 46–53 | 45–53 | 44–56 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra | 50 | 47 | 75% | 44–49 | 44–50 | 43–51 | 41–52 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra | 45 | 45 | 41% | 42–48 | 41–48 | 40–49 | 39–51 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 35 | 45 | 37% | 42–47 | 41–48 | 40–48 | 39–50 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca | 38 | 43 | 12% | 40–46 | 39–46 | 39–47 | 37–48 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra | 43 | 39 | 0.9% | 38–43 | 36–43 | 36–44 | 34–46 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 38 | 38 | 0.1% | 35–41 | 35–41 | 34–42 | 33–44 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra | 40 | 38 | 0% | 35–41 | 34–41 | 34–42 | 33–44 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 28 | 38 | 0% | 35–40 | 34–41 | 34–41 | 33–43 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 30 | 38 | 0% | 35–40 | 34–41 | 34–41 | 33–43 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati | 23 | 32 | 0% | 29–34 | 28–34 | 27–35 | 26–36 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra | 33 | 32 | 0% | 29–34 | 28–35 | 27–35 | 27–37 |
| Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 25 | 22 | 0% | 21–25 | 20–26 | 19–26 | 18–28 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.4% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 45 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 46 | 5% | 97% | Majority |
| 47 | 12% | 92% | |
| 48 | 7% | 80% | |
| 49 | 10% | 73% | |
| 50 | 31% | 63% | Median |
| 51 | 16% | 31% | |
| 52 | 6% | 16% | |
| 53 | 8% | 10% | |
| 54 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 42 | 1.0% | 98.9% | |
| 43 | 2% | 98% | |
| 44 | 7% | 96% | |
| 45 | 14% | 89% | Median |
| 46 | 17% | 75% | Majority |
| 47 | 22% | 58% | |
| 48 | 16% | 36% | |
| 49 | 13% | 20% | |
| 50 | 3% | 7% | Last Result |
| 51 | 3% | 4% | |
| 52 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 40 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 41 | 3% | 97% | |
| 42 | 15% | 94% | |
| 43 | 5% | 78% | |
| 44 | 17% | 74% | |
| 45 | 16% | 57% | Last Result, Median |
| 46 | 12% | 41% | Majority |
| 47 | 19% | 29% | |
| 48 | 7% | 10% | |
| 49 | 2% | 3% | |
| 50 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 40 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 41 | 4% | 96% | |
| 42 | 16% | 93% | |
| 43 | 6% | 77% | |
| 44 | 17% | 71% | |
| 45 | 17% | 54% | Median |
| 46 | 11% | 37% | Majority |
| 47 | 18% | 26% | |
| 48 | 6% | 8% | |
| 49 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 50 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.8% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 39 | 5% | 98.6% | |
| 40 | 6% | 93% | |
| 41 | 10% | 88% | |
| 42 | 12% | 78% | |
| 43 | 27% | 66% | Median |
| 44 | 18% | 39% | |
| 45 | 8% | 20% | |
| 46 | 8% | 12% | Majority |
| 47 | 3% | 4% | |
| 48 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 35 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 36 | 4% | 98% | |
| 37 | 2% | 94% | |
| 38 | 8% | 92% | Median |
| 39 | 34% | 84% | |
| 40 | 8% | 50% | |
| 41 | 14% | 42% | |
| 42 | 18% | 28% | |
| 43 | 6% | 11% | Last Result |
| 44 | 3% | 5% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.6% | 0.9% | Majority |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 34 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 35 | 8% | 96% | |
| 36 | 14% | 88% | |
| 37 | 7% | 74% | |
| 38 | 21% | 67% | Last Result, Median |
| 39 | 29% | 47% | |
| 40 | 5% | 18% | |
| 41 | 8% | 13% | |
| 42 | 3% | 4% | |
| 43 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 34 | 4% | 98% | |
| 35 | 7% | 94% | |
| 36 | 12% | 87% | |
| 37 | 12% | 75% | |
| 38 | 16% | 63% | Median |
| 39 | 13% | 47% | |
| 40 | 22% | 35% | Last Result |
| 41 | 9% | 13% | |
| 42 | 3% | 4% | |
| 43 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 34 | 4% | 98.8% | |
| 35 | 9% | 95% | |
| 36 | 15% | 86% | |
| 37 | 7% | 71% | |
| 38 | 21% | 64% | Median |
| 39 | 29% | 43% | |
| 40 | 4% | 14% | |
| 41 | 8% | 10% | |
| 42 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 43 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 34 | 4% | 98% | |
| 35 | 8% | 93% | |
| 36 | 13% | 86% | |
| 37 | 13% | 73% | |
| 38 | 17% | 60% | Median |
| 39 | 13% | 44% | |
| 40 | 21% | 31% | |
| 41 | 8% | 9% | |
| 42 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 43 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 28 | 5% | 96% | |
| 29 | 12% | 91% | |
| 30 | 15% | 79% | |
| 31 | 10% | 64% | Median |
| 32 | 34% | 54% | |
| 33 | 10% | 20% | |
| 34 | 8% | 11% | |
| 35 | 2% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 28 | 4% | 96% | |
| 29 | 12% | 92% | |
| 30 | 14% | 81% | |
| 31 | 8% | 67% | Median |
| 32 | 34% | 58% | |
| 33 | 10% | 24% | Last Result |
| 34 | 9% | 15% | |
| 35 | 4% | 6% | |
| 36 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 20 | 4% | 96% | |
| 21 | 22% | 91% | |
| 22 | 20% | 69% | |
| 23 | 9% | 49% | Median |
| 24 | 29% | 40% | |
| 25 | 5% | 11% | Last Result |
| 26 | 3% | 5% | |
| 27 | 2% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Parsifal SC
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 4–7 December 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 712
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.53%