Opinion Poll by Ninamedia, 11–13 December 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 24.9% | 26.0% | 24.0–28.2% | 23.4–28.8% | 22.9–29.4% | 21.9–30.5% |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 12.6% | 18.0% | 16.2–20.0% | 15.7–20.5% | 15.3–21.0% | 14.5–22.0% |
| Socialni demokrati | 9.9% | 17.0% | 15.3–18.9% | 14.8–19.5% | 14.4–20.0% | 13.6–20.9% |
| Levica | 9.3% | 10.0% | 8.7–11.6% | 8.3–12.1% | 8.0–12.5% | 7.4–13.3% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.8–9.5% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.2–10.3% | 5.7–11.0% |
| Stranka modernega centra | 9.7% | 4.0% | 3.2–5.1% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.8–5.7% | 2.4–6.3% |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.2–5.1% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.8–5.7% | 2.4–6.3% |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.3% | 2.0–4.6% | 1.7–5.1% |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.3% | 2.0–4.6% | 1.7–5.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 25 | 25 | 23–28 | 22–28 | 22–29 | 21–30 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 13 | 17 | 16–19 | 15–20 | 14–20 | 14–22 |
| Socialni demokrati | 10 | 17 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 13–21 |
| Levica | 9 | 9 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–12 | 7–13 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7 | 7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 5–11 |
| Stranka modernega centra | 10 | 4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 5 | 4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 21 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 22 | 4% | 98% | |
| 23 | 10% | 94% | |
| 24 | 18% | 84% | |
| 25 | 27% | 67% | Last Result, Median |
| 26 | 13% | 40% | |
| 27 | 12% | 27% | |
| 28 | 10% | 15% | |
| 29 | 3% | 5% | |
| 30 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 14 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 15 | 7% | 97% | |
| 16 | 17% | 90% | |
| 17 | 27% | 73% | Median |
| 18 | 20% | 46% | |
| 19 | 17% | 26% | |
| 20 | 6% | 9% | |
| 21 | 2% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 1.4% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 8% | 98% | |
| 15 | 18% | 90% | |
| 16 | 22% | 72% | |
| 17 | 27% | 50% | Median |
| 18 | 11% | 24% | |
| 19 | 10% | 12% | |
| 20 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Levica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 7 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 8 | 13% | 97% | |
| 9 | 34% | 83% | Last Result, Median |
| 10 | 25% | 49% | |
| 11 | 19% | 24% | |
| 12 | 3% | 4% | |
| 13 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 6 | 12% | 98.5% | |
| 7 | 39% | 86% | Last Result, Median |
| 8 | 32% | 47% | |
| 9 | 10% | 15% | |
| 10 | 4% | 5% | |
| 11 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka modernega centra
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 44% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 56% | |
| 2 | 0% | 56% | |
| 3 | 4% | 56% | |
| 4 | 39% | 52% | Median |
| 5 | 13% | 13% | |
| 6 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 46% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 54% | |
| 2 | 0% | 54% | |
| 3 | 2% | 54% | |
| 4 | 40% | 52% | Median |
| 5 | 11% | 12% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka Alenke Bratušek
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 6% | |
| 3 | 3% | 6% | |
| 4 | 3% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0.8% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 7% | |
| 3 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 4 | 6% | 6% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 50 | 46 | 65% | 43–49 | 42–50 | 41–51 | 40–52 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 45 | 46 | 61% | 43–49 | 42–50 | 41–51 | 40–52 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 43 | 45 | 46% | 42–48 | 41–49 | 40–50 | 38–51 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra | 40 | 44 | 23% | 41–47 | 40–48 | 39–49 | 37–50 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 35 | 44 | 24% | 40–47 | 39–48 | 39–48 | 38–50 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca | 38 | 42 | 13% | 40–46 | 39–47 | 38–48 | 37–49 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 30 | 41 | 4% | 38–45 | 38–45 | 37–46 | 36–47 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 43 | 39 | 0.2% | 36–42 | 35–43 | 34–44 | 32–45 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 38 | 38 | 0.2% | 35–42 | 34–42 | 33–43 | 32–45 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 28 | 36 | 0% | 33–39 | 32–40 | 31–41 | 30–42 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra | 33 | 36 | 0% | 33–39 | 32–40 | 31–41 | 30–42 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati | 23 | 34 | 0% | 31–36 | 30–38 | 30–38 | 29–39 |
| Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 25 | 21 | 0% | 17–25 | 16–26 | 16–26 | 15–27 |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 41 | 1.3% | 98.6% | |
| 42 | 3% | 97% | |
| 43 | 10% | 94% | |
| 44 | 5% | 84% | |
| 45 | 14% | 79% | |
| 46 | 19% | 65% | Majority |
| 47 | 11% | 46% | |
| 48 | 16% | 35% | |
| 49 | 12% | 19% | Median |
| 50 | 3% | 7% | Last Result |
| 51 | 3% | 4% | |
| 52 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 41 | 2% | 98% | |
| 42 | 5% | 96% | |
| 43 | 11% | 92% | |
| 44 | 5% | 81% | |
| 45 | 15% | 76% | Last Result |
| 46 | 18% | 61% | Majority |
| 47 | 11% | 43% | |
| 48 | 15% | 32% | |
| 49 | 12% | 17% | Median |
| 50 | 3% | 6% | |
| 51 | 2% | 3% | |
| 52 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 40 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 41 | 3% | 96% | |
| 42 | 11% | 93% | |
| 43 | 11% | 83% | Last Result |
| 44 | 11% | 72% | |
| 45 | 15% | 61% | |
| 46 | 16% | 46% | Median, Majority |
| 47 | 17% | 30% | |
| 48 | 5% | 13% | |
| 49 | 5% | 8% | |
| 50 | 2% | 3% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 39 | 2% | 98% | |
| 40 | 4% | 96% | Last Result |
| 41 | 7% | 92% | |
| 42 | 15% | 85% | |
| 43 | 16% | 70% | |
| 44 | 13% | 54% | |
| 45 | 18% | 41% | Median |
| 46 | 10% | 23% | Majority |
| 47 | 6% | 13% | |
| 48 | 4% | 7% | |
| 49 | 2% | 3% | |
| 50 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 38 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 39 | 4% | 98% | |
| 40 | 6% | 95% | |
| 41 | 5% | 89% | |
| 42 | 14% | 83% | |
| 43 | 16% | 70% | |
| 44 | 13% | 53% | |
| 45 | 17% | 40% | Median |
| 46 | 12% | 24% | Majority |
| 47 | 7% | 12% | |
| 48 | 4% | 6% | |
| 49 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 50 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 38 | 2% | 98.7% | Last Result |
| 39 | 5% | 97% | |
| 40 | 9% | 92% | |
| 41 | 8% | 83% | |
| 42 | 25% | 74% | Median |
| 43 | 16% | 49% | |
| 44 | 9% | 33% | |
| 45 | 11% | 24% | |
| 46 | 4% | 13% | Majority |
| 47 | 6% | 9% | |
| 48 | 2% | 3% | |
| 49 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 37 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 38 | 7% | 97% | |
| 39 | 9% | 90% | |
| 40 | 15% | 81% | |
| 41 | 15% | 65% | Median |
| 42 | 20% | 50% | |
| 43 | 15% | 30% | |
| 44 | 4% | 15% | |
| 45 | 7% | 11% | |
| 46 | 2% | 4% | Majority |
| 47 | 2% | 2% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 1.4% | 99.5% | |
| 34 | 3% | 98% | |
| 35 | 4% | 95% | |
| 36 | 10% | 91% | |
| 37 | 8% | 81% | |
| 38 | 21% | 73% | |
| 39 | 11% | 52% | |
| 40 | 16% | 41% | |
| 41 | 12% | 25% | |
| 42 | 8% | 13% | Median |
| 43 | 2% | 5% | Last Result |
| 44 | 2% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 33 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 34 | 4% | 97% | |
| 35 | 5% | 94% | |
| 36 | 11% | 89% | |
| 37 | 8% | 78% | |
| 38 | 20% | 70% | Last Result |
| 39 | 11% | 49% | |
| 40 | 16% | 39% | |
| 41 | 11% | 22% | |
| 42 | 7% | 12% | Median |
| 43 | 2% | 4% | |
| 44 | 2% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 31 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 32 | 4% | 97% | |
| 33 | 8% | 94% | |
| 34 | 11% | 86% | |
| 35 | 9% | 74% | |
| 36 | 22% | 65% | |
| 37 | 11% | 43% | |
| 38 | 15% | 32% | Median |
| 39 | 7% | 17% | |
| 40 | 7% | 9% | |
| 41 | 2% | 3% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 32 | 3% | 97% | |
| 33 | 5% | 94% | Last Result |
| 34 | 12% | 89% | |
| 35 | 11% | 76% | |
| 36 | 20% | 65% | |
| 37 | 13% | 45% | |
| 38 | 16% | 33% | Median |
| 39 | 8% | 16% | |
| 40 | 4% | 8% | |
| 41 | 3% | 4% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 30 | 4% | 98.5% | |
| 31 | 6% | 94% | |
| 32 | 14% | 88% | |
| 33 | 17% | 74% | |
| 34 | 19% | 57% | Median |
| 35 | 14% | 39% | |
| 36 | 15% | 24% | |
| 37 | 4% | 10% | |
| 38 | 4% | 6% | |
| 39 | 2% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 16 | 3% | 98% | |
| 17 | 6% | 95% | |
| 18 | 7% | 89% | |
| 19 | 11% | 82% | |
| 20 | 13% | 71% | |
| 21 | 12% | 58% | |
| 22 | 14% | 47% | |
| 23 | 13% | 33% | |
| 24 | 9% | 20% | |
| 25 | 5% | 11% | Last Result, Median |
| 26 | 4% | 6% | |
| 27 | 2% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ninamedia
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 11–13 December 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 700
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.81%