Opinion Poll by Ninamedia for MMC and RTV Slovenija, 29 January–6 February 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 22.4% 20.4–24.7% 19.8–25.3% 19.3–25.8% 18.4–26.9%
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 15.1% 13.4–17.1% 12.9–17.6% 12.5–18.1% 11.7–19.1%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 5.7% 4.7–7.1% 4.4–7.5% 4.2–7.8% 3.7–8.5%
Levica 9.3% 5.4% 4.4–6.8% 4.1–7.1% 3.9–7.5% 3.5–8.2%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 5.2% 4.3–6.6% 4.0–7.0% 3.8–7.3% 3.3–8.0%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 2.7% 2.0–3.7% 1.8–4.0% 1.7–4.3% 1.4–4.8%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 2.5% 1.9–3.6% 1.7–3.8% 1.6–4.1% 1.3–4.6%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 2.4% 1.8–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–3.9% 1.2–4.4%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 1.7% 1.2–2.6% 1.1–2.9% 1.0–3.1% 0.8–3.6%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 1.4% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.8–2.7% 0.6–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 22 20–25 19–26 19–26 18–27
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 15 13–17 13–17 12–18 11–19
Socialni demokrati 10 5 4–7 4–7 4–8 0–8
Levica 9 5 4–6 0–7 0–7 0–8
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 5 4–7 0–7 0–7 0–8
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0 0 0 0–4
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.2% 100%  
18 0.8% 99.7%  
19 7% 98.9%  
20 8% 92%  
21 10% 83%  
22 23% 73% Median
23 10% 50%  
24 28% 39%  
25 7% 12%  
26 4% 5%  
27 0.9% 1.2%  
28 0.2% 0.3%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.6% 100%  
12 3% 99.3%  
13 11% 97%  
14 20% 85%  
15 32% 65% Median
16 20% 34%  
17 9% 14%  
18 4% 5%  
19 0.9% 1.2%  
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100%  
1 0% 98.8%  
2 0% 98.8%  
3 0% 98.8%  
4 38% 98.8%  
5 24% 61% Median
6 26% 37%  
7 8% 11%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100%  
1 0% 92%  
2 0% 92%  
3 0% 92%  
4 21% 92%  
5 44% 70% Median
6 17% 27%  
7 8% 9%  
8 0.9% 1.1%  
9 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
10 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 0% 93%  
2 0% 93%  
3 0% 93%  
4 29% 93%  
5 40% 64% Median
6 13% 24%  
7 11% 12% Last Result
8 0.9% 0.9%  
9 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0% 6%  
3 0.2% 6%  
4 6% 6%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0.1% 3%  
4 3% 3% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.5% 100% Median
1 0% 1.5%  
2 0% 1.5%  
3 0.3% 1.5%  
4 1.1% 1.2%  
5 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 38 0% 35–40 34–41 33–42 32–44
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka 38 38 0% 35–40 34–41 33–42 32–44
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 50 33 0% 30–36 29–37 28–37 27–38
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 45 33 0% 30–36 29–37 28–37 26–38
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 33 0% 30–36 29–37 28–37 26–38
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 33 0% 29–35 29–36 28–36 26–38
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 33 0% 29–35 29–36 28–36 26–38
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 28 0% 25–30 24–31 24–32 22–33
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 28 0% 25–31 24–32 24–32 22–34
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 38 28 0% 25–31 24–32 24–32 22–34
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 28 0% 25–30 24–31 24–32 22–33
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 28 0% 25–31 24–32 24–32 22–34
Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 25 5 0% 4–7 4–9 4–10 0–10

Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 1.1% 99.7%  
33 3% 98.7%  
34 5% 95%  
35 8% 91%  
36 12% 82%  
37 16% 71% Median
38 20% 55%  
39 22% 35%  
40 6% 13%  
41 4% 7%  
42 1.4% 3%  
43 0.4% 2% Last Result
44 1.5% 2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 1.1% 99.7%  
33 3% 98.7%  
34 5% 95%  
35 8% 91%  
36 12% 82%  
37 16% 71% Median
38 20% 55% Last Result
39 22% 35%  
40 6% 13%  
41 4% 7%  
42 1.4% 3%  
43 0.4% 2%  
44 1.5% 2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 0.3% 99.8%  
27 0.4% 99.5%  
28 3% 99.1%  
29 6% 96%  
30 5% 91%  
31 14% 86%  
32 11% 72% Median
33 34% 61%  
34 10% 26%  
35 5% 16%  
36 6% 11%  
37 4% 5%  
38 1.4% 2%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Majority
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 0.3% 99.8%  
27 0.5% 99.5%  
28 3% 99.0%  
29 6% 96%  
30 5% 91%  
31 14% 85%  
32 11% 71% Median
33 35% 60%  
34 10% 25%  
35 5% 16%  
36 5% 11%  
37 3% 5%  
38 1.3% 2%  
39 0.3% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 0.3% 99.8%  
27 0.5% 99.5%  
28 3% 99.0%  
29 6% 96%  
30 5% 91%  
31 14% 85%  
32 11% 71% Median
33 35% 60%  
34 10% 25%  
35 5% 16%  
36 5% 10%  
37 3% 5%  
38 1.3% 2%  
39 0.3% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
41 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0.1% 99.9%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 0.4% 99.8%  
27 0.6% 99.4%  
28 3% 98.8%  
29 6% 96%  
30 7% 90%  
31 14% 83%  
32 12% 68% Median
33 36% 57%  
34 8% 20%  
35 5% 12% Last Result
36 5% 7%  
37 1.2% 2%  
38 1.2% 1.3%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0.1% 99.9%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 0.4% 99.8%  
27 0.6% 99.4%  
28 3% 98.8%  
29 6% 96%  
30 7% 90% Last Result
31 14% 83%  
32 12% 68% Median
33 36% 56%  
34 8% 20%  
35 5% 12%  
36 5% 7%  
37 1.2% 2%  
38 1.2% 1.3%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.9%  
22 0.6% 99.6%  
23 0.9% 99.0%  
24 5% 98%  
25 7% 93%  
26 14% 86%  
27 13% 72% Median
28 33% 59% Last Result
29 11% 26%  
30 6% 15%  
31 5% 9%  
32 3% 4%  
33 1.0% 1.4%  
34 0.3% 0.4%  
35 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.2% 99.9%  
22 0.6% 99.7%  
23 0.7% 99.1%  
24 4% 98%  
25 6% 94%  
26 13% 89%  
27 13% 76% Median
28 32% 64%  
29 12% 31%  
30 7% 19%  
31 6% 13%  
32 5% 7%  
33 2% 2%  
34 0.5% 0.7%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.2% 99.9%  
22 0.6% 99.7%  
23 0.8% 99.1%  
24 4% 98%  
25 6% 94%  
26 13% 88%  
27 13% 75% Median
28 33% 63%  
29 12% 30%  
30 6% 18%  
31 5% 12%  
32 4% 7%  
33 2% 2%  
34 0.5% 0.6%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.9%  
22 0.6% 99.6%  
23 0.9% 99.0% Last Result
24 5% 98%  
25 7% 93%  
26 14% 86%  
27 13% 72% Median
28 33% 59%  
29 11% 26%  
30 6% 15%  
31 5% 9%  
32 3% 4%  
33 1.0% 1.4%  
34 0.3% 0.4%  
35 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.2% 99.9%  
22 0.6% 99.7%  
23 0.8% 99.1%  
24 4% 98%  
25 6% 94%  
26 13% 88%  
27 13% 75% Median
28 33% 63%  
29 12% 30%  
30 6% 18%  
31 5% 12%  
32 4% 7%  
33 2% 2% Last Result
34 0.5% 0.6%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100%  
1 0% 99.0%  
2 0% 99.0%  
3 0% 99.0%  
4 37% 99.0%  
5 22% 62% Median
6 22% 39%  
7 9% 17%  
8 3% 9%  
9 2% 6%  
10 4% 4%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations