Opinion Poll by Mediana for POP TV, 24 February 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 29.3% 26.8–31.9% 26.1–32.7% 25.5–33.3% 24.3–34.6%
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 22.9% 20.6–25.4% 20.0–26.1% 19.4–26.7% 18.4–27.9%
Levica 9.3% 9.5% 8.0–11.4% 7.6–11.9% 7.3–12.3% 6.6–13.3%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 7.8% 6.4–9.5% 6.1–10.0% 5.7–10.4% 5.2–11.3%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 6.8% 5.5–8.4% 5.2–8.9% 4.9–9.3% 4.4–10.1%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 4.7% 3.7–6.1% 3.4–6.5% 3.1–6.8% 2.7–7.6%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 4.7% 3.7–6.1% 3.4–6.5% 3.1–6.8% 2.7–7.6%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 4.1% 3.2–5.4% 2.9–5.8% 2.7–6.1% 2.3–6.9%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 3.5% 2.7–4.8% 2.4–5.1% 2.2–5.5% 1.9–6.1%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 3.5% 2.7–4.8% 2.4–5.1% 2.2–5.5% 1.9–6.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 28 26–31 25–32 24–33 23–35
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 21 20–25 19–26 19–27 18–29
Levica 9 9 7–11 7–11 7–12 6–13
Socialni demokrati 10 7 6–9 6–9 5–10 5–11
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 6 5–8 5–8 5–9 4–10
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 4 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 4 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–6

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.3% 100%  
23 0.7% 99.7%  
24 2% 99.0%  
25 4% 97%  
26 9% 93%  
27 7% 84%  
28 29% 77% Median
29 10% 48%  
30 12% 38%  
31 17% 27%  
32 6% 9%  
33 2% 4%  
34 0.8% 2%  
35 0.6% 0.9%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.3% 99.9%  
18 2% 99.7%  
19 3% 98%  
20 10% 95%  
21 35% 85% Median
22 7% 50%  
23 8% 43%  
24 17% 35%  
25 12% 18% Last Result
26 4% 7%  
27 1.0% 3%  
28 1.1% 2%  
29 0.3% 0.6%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 1.0% 99.9%  
7 9% 98.8%  
8 30% 89%  
9 30% 60% Last Result, Median
10 17% 30%  
11 10% 13%  
12 3% 4%  
13 0.6% 0.7%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 4% 99.7%  
6 14% 95%  
7 44% 81% Median
8 18% 37%  
9 16% 19%  
10 2% 3% Last Result
11 1.0% 1.1%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 2% 99.8%  
5 16% 98%  
6 53% 82% Median
7 14% 29% Last Result
8 10% 15%  
9 4% 5%  
10 0.9% 1.0%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100%  
1 0% 88%  
2 0% 88%  
3 18% 88%  
4 27% 70% Median
5 32% 43% Last Result
6 9% 11%  
7 1.4% 2%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 25% 100%  
1 0% 75%  
2 0% 75%  
3 1.0% 75%  
4 41% 74% Median
5 27% 34% Last Result
6 5% 6%  
7 1.4% 2%  
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 31% 100% Last Result
1 0% 69%  
2 0% 69%  
3 19% 69%  
4 37% 50% Median
5 9% 13%  
6 4% 4%  
7 0.2% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 56% 100% Median
1 0% 44%  
2 0% 44%  
3 7% 44%  
4 34% 38%  
5 4% 4%  
6 0.3% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 80% 100% Median
1 0% 20%  
2 0% 20%  
3 3% 20%  
4 12% 16% Last Result
5 4% 5%  
6 0.5% 0.6%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 54 99.9% 51–59 50–60 49–61 47–63
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 50 52 97% 48–55 47–56 45–57 44–59
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka 38 51 97% 47–55 46–56 45–57 44–59
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 48 80% 44–51 43–52 42–53 40–55
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 45 48% 43–49 42–50 40–52 38–54
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 43 46 50% 41–48 40–50 39–51 36–52
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 45 27% 41–47 39–48 38–49 37–52
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 42 16% 39–46 38–47 37–48 36–51
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 42 6% 37–44 36–46 36–46 34–49
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 39 1.4% 36–43 35–44 34–44 32–47
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 38 0.3% 35–41 33–42 32–43 30–45
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 36 0.1% 33–40 32–40 31–41 30–43
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 13 0% 9–15 8–17 7–17 6–19

Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100% Last Result
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9% Majority
47 0.6% 99.5%  
48 0.7% 99.0%  
49 2% 98%  
50 3% 96%  
51 5% 93%  
52 7% 88%  
53 24% 80% Median
54 10% 56%  
55 13% 46%  
56 11% 33%  
57 4% 22%  
58 6% 18%  
59 3% 12%  
60 6% 9%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.5% 1.1%  
63 0.2% 0.6%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.2% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.8%  
43 0.1% 99.7%  
44 0.9% 99.6%  
45 1.3% 98.7%  
46 2% 97% Majority
47 2% 95%  
48 6% 93%  
49 9% 87% Median
50 6% 77% Last Result
51 15% 71%  
52 26% 56%  
53 8% 30%  
54 12% 22%  
55 3% 10%  
56 3% 8%  
57 3% 4%  
58 1.0% 2%  
59 0.5% 0.7%  
60 0.2% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.1% 99.8%  
44 0.4% 99.7%  
45 2% 99.3%  
46 4% 97% Majority
47 6% 94%  
48 4% 88%  
49 25% 84% Median
50 8% 59%  
51 12% 52%  
52 5% 40%  
53 6% 35%  
54 8% 30%  
55 13% 22%  
56 6% 9%  
57 1.1% 3%  
58 1.0% 2%  
59 0.8% 1.1%  
60 0.1% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.8%  
41 0.8% 99.4%  
42 2% 98.6%  
43 4% 96%  
44 6% 92%  
45 6% 86% Last Result, Median
46 15% 80% Majority
47 7% 65%  
48 15% 58%  
49 25% 43%  
50 7% 18%  
51 4% 11%  
52 4% 7%  
53 2% 4%  
54 0.7% 2%  
55 0.5% 0.9%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.8%  
39 0.8% 99.5%  
40 1.4% 98.7%  
41 2% 97%  
42 4% 95%  
43 5% 91%  
44 10% 86%  
45 28% 76% Median
46 16% 48% Majority
47 6% 32%  
48 10% 27%  
49 8% 17%  
50 5% 9%  
51 2% 4%  
52 1.4% 3%  
53 0.3% 1.1%  
54 0.3% 0.7%  
55 0.4% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.7% 99.8%  
37 0.1% 99.1%  
38 1.0% 99.0%  
39 1.1% 98%  
40 4% 97%  
41 3% 93%  
42 5% 89%  
43 10% 85% Last Result, Median
44 6% 74%  
45 18% 68%  
46 23% 50% Majority
47 6% 28%  
48 13% 22%  
49 3% 9%  
50 3% 6%  
51 2% 3%  
52 0.7% 1.0%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 1.1% 99.8%  
38 2% 98.6%  
39 3% 97%  
40 3% 94% Last Result
41 5% 91% Median
42 7% 86%  
43 12% 79%  
44 14% 67%  
45 26% 53%  
46 14% 27% Majority
47 5% 13%  
48 3% 7%  
49 2% 4%  
50 1.1% 2%  
51 0.7% 1.2%  
52 0.3% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.8%  
36 0.9% 99.6%  
37 2% 98.8%  
38 4% 96%  
39 6% 93%  
40 8% 87%  
41 24% 78% Median
42 7% 55%  
43 10% 48%  
44 13% 38%  
45 8% 24%  
46 11% 16% Majority
47 2% 5%  
48 1.4% 3%  
49 0.5% 2%  
50 0.7% 1.2%  
51 0.3% 0.6%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.8% 99.8%  
35 0.9% 98.9%  
36 4% 98%  
37 5% 94%  
38 4% 89% Last Result
39 8% 86% Median
40 16% 77%  
41 8% 61%  
42 8% 53%  
43 32% 44%  
44 4% 13%  
45 3% 9%  
46 4% 6% Majority
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.5% 1.0%  
49 0.2% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.3% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.6%  
33 0.7% 99.3%  
34 2% 98.6%  
35 2% 97%  
36 5% 95%  
37 7% 90%  
38 8% 83%  
39 30% 75% Median
40 18% 45%  
41 4% 27%  
42 8% 23%  
43 11% 16%  
44 3% 5%  
45 1.1% 2%  
46 0.5% 1.4% Majority
47 0.6% 0.9%  
48 0.1% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.6% 99.9%  
31 0.5% 99.4%  
32 3% 98.8%  
33 2% 96% Last Result
34 4% 95%  
35 7% 90% Median
36 11% 84%  
37 11% 72%  
38 11% 61%  
39 27% 50%  
40 11% 23%  
41 6% 12%  
42 2% 5%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.5% 1.1%  
45 0.3% 0.6%  
46 0.2% 0.3% Majority
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.9%  
30 1.1% 99.6%  
31 2% 98%  
32 4% 97%  
33 7% 93%  
34 8% 85%  
35 27% 78% Median
36 8% 51%  
37 12% 43%  
38 10% 30%  
39 7% 21%  
40 10% 14%  
41 1.3% 3%  
42 0.7% 2%  
43 1.1% 1.4%  
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 0.8% 99.8%  
7 4% 99.0%  
8 5% 95%  
9 11% 90%  
10 6% 79%  
11 8% 73% Median
12 12% 65%  
13 9% 53%  
14 6% 44%  
15 29% 38%  
16 4% 9%  
17 3% 5%  
18 1.0% 2%  
19 0.7% 1.0%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations