Opinion Poll by Mediana for Delo, 26 February–7 March 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 28.2% 25.8–30.9% 25.1–31.6% 24.5–32.3% 23.4–33.6%
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 23.2% 21.0–25.7% 20.3–26.4% 19.8–27.1% 18.7–28.3%
Levica 9.3% 11.8% 10.2–13.8% 9.7–14.4% 9.3–14.9% 8.6–15.9%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 9.9% 8.4–11.8% 7.9–12.3% 7.6–12.7% 6.9–13.7%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 9.7% 8.2–11.5% 7.8–12.1% 7.4–12.5% 6.8–13.5%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 4.1% 3.1–5.4% 2.9–5.8% 2.7–6.1% 2.3–6.8%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 3.1% 2.3–4.3% 2.1–4.7% 1.9–5.0% 1.6–5.6%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 2.7% 2.0–3.9% 1.8–4.2% 1.6–4.5% 1.3–5.1%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 2.1% 1.5–3.2% 1.3–3.5% 1.2–3.8% 0.9–4.4%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 1.2% 0.7–2.0% 0.6–2.3% 0.5–2.5% 0.4–3.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 27 25–31 25–31 24–32 23–34
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 23 20–25 20–26 19–27 18–28
Levica 9 11 10–13 10–14 9–15 8–16
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 9 8–11 7–12 7–13 7–14
Socialni demokrati 10 10 8–11 7–12 7–12 6–13
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 4 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–5
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0 0 0 0–4
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 0.9% 99.8%  
24 3% 98.8%  
25 10% 96%  
26 9% 86%  
27 29% 77% Median
28 18% 48%  
29 10% 31%  
30 7% 20%  
31 10% 14%  
32 2% 3%  
33 1.0% 2%  
34 0.7% 0.9%  
35 0% 0.2%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.7% 99.9%  
19 3% 99.1%  
20 8% 96%  
21 7% 88%  
22 21% 81%  
23 15% 60% Median
24 26% 45%  
25 10% 19% Last Result
26 4% 8%  
27 3% 5%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.1% 0.3%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 0.9% 99.8%  
9 3% 98.9% Last Result
10 27% 96%  
11 28% 69% Median
12 19% 41%  
13 13% 22%  
14 7% 10%  
15 2% 3%  
16 1.0% 1.1%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.4% 100%  
7 6% 99.6% Last Result
8 13% 93%  
9 34% 80% Median
10 26% 46%  
11 12% 20%  
12 5% 8%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.7% 0.8%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.7% 100%  
7 5% 99.3%  
8 11% 94%  
9 24% 84%  
10 41% 60% Last Result, Median
11 13% 19%  
12 4% 6%  
13 1.4% 2%  
14 0.3% 0.4%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 37% 100%  
1 0% 63%  
2 0% 63%  
3 3% 63%  
4 48% 61% Median
5 9% 12% Last Result
6 3% 3%  
7 0.4% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 86% 100% Median
1 0% 14%  
2 0% 14%  
3 0.6% 14%  
4 12% 14% Last Result
5 2% 2%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 8%  
2 0% 8%  
3 0.2% 8%  
4 7% 8%  
5 0.9% 0.9%  
6 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Median
1 0% 0.7%  
2 0% 0.7%  
3 0.1% 0.7%  
4 0.6% 0.7%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 54 99.9% 50–56 49–57 48–59 47–61
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka 38 51 98.8% 47–54 47–55 46–56 44–58
Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 50 93% 46–53 45–54 44–55 43–56
Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 50 50 93% 46–53 45–54 44–55 43–57
Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 50 93% 46–53 45–54 44–55 43–56
Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati 30 46 77% 44–50 43–51 43–52 41–55
Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 46 77% 44–50 43–51 43–52 41–55
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 41 1.2% 36–43 35–44 34–45 33–46
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 43 41 1.2% 36–43 35–44 34–45 33–46
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 41 1.2% 36–43 35–44 34–45 33–46
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 37 0.1% 35–41 34–41 33–42 31–44
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 37 0.1% 35–41 34–41 33–42 31–44
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 13 0% 9–15 8–15 8–16 7–18

Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100% Last Result
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9% Majority
47 1.3% 99.7%  
48 1.1% 98%  
49 5% 97%  
50 8% 93%  
51 4% 85%  
52 10% 81%  
53 13% 70%  
54 21% 57% Median
55 20% 36%  
56 9% 16%  
57 3% 7%  
58 1.2% 4%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.3% 0.9%  
61 0.4% 0.6%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.9%  
45 0.7% 99.5%  
46 3% 98.8% Majority
47 6% 95%  
48 6% 89%  
49 14% 83%  
50 15% 69% Median
51 19% 55%  
52 12% 35%  
53 5% 23%  
54 9% 18%  
55 4% 9%  
56 3% 5%  
57 0.8% 2%  
58 0.4% 0.8%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 1.1% 99.6%  
44 2% 98.5%  
45 4% 97%  
46 5% 93% Majority
47 7% 88%  
48 12% 81%  
49 9% 69%  
50 29% 60% Median
51 13% 32%  
52 9% 19%  
53 5% 10%  
54 2% 6%  
55 2% 4%  
56 1.0% 2%  
57 0.4% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 1.1% 99.7%  
44 2% 98.6%  
45 4% 97%  
46 5% 93% Majority
47 7% 88%  
48 12% 82%  
49 9% 70%  
50 29% 61% Last Result, Median
51 13% 32%  
52 9% 19%  
53 5% 10%  
54 2% 6%  
55 2% 4%  
56 1.0% 2%  
57 0.4% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 1.1% 99.6%  
44 2% 98.5%  
45 4% 97% Last Result
46 5% 93% Majority
47 7% 88%  
48 12% 81%  
49 9% 69%  
50 29% 60% Median
51 13% 32%  
52 9% 19%  
53 5% 10%  
54 2% 6%  
55 2% 4%  
56 1.0% 2%  
57 0.4% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 0.5% 99.6%  
42 1.3% 99.1%  
43 3% 98%  
44 8% 95%  
45 10% 87%  
46 28% 77% Median, Majority
47 16% 49%  
48 11% 33%  
49 6% 22%  
50 8% 16%  
51 4% 8%  
52 2% 5%  
53 0.8% 2%  
54 0.8% 1.4%  
55 0.5% 0.6%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
41 0.5% 99.6%  
42 1.3% 99.1%  
43 3% 98%  
44 8% 95%  
45 10% 87%  
46 28% 77% Median, Majority
47 16% 49%  
48 11% 33%  
49 6% 22%  
50 8% 16%  
51 4% 8%  
52 2% 5%  
53 0.8% 2%  
54 0.8% 1.4%  
55 0.5% 0.6%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.2% 100%  
33 1.4% 99.8%  
34 1.3% 98%  
35 4% 97%  
36 4% 94%  
37 6% 90%  
38 5% 83%  
39 12% 78%  
40 12% 66%  
41 29% 54% Median
42 10% 24%  
43 8% 14%  
44 3% 6%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.8% 1.2% Majority
47 0.3% 0.4%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 1.3% 99.8%  
34 1.3% 98%  
35 4% 97%  
36 4% 94%  
37 6% 90%  
38 5% 83%  
39 12% 78%  
40 12% 66%  
41 29% 54% Median
42 10% 25%  
43 8% 15% Last Result
44 3% 6%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.8% 1.2% Majority
47 0.3% 0.4%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 1.4% 99.8%  
34 1.3% 98%  
35 4% 97%  
36 4% 94%  
37 6% 90%  
38 5% 83% Last Result
39 12% 78%  
40 12% 66%  
41 29% 54% Median
42 10% 24%  
43 8% 14%  
44 3% 6%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.8% 1.2% Majority
47 0.3% 0.4%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.3% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.7%  
32 0.6% 99.4%  
33 3% 98.8%  
34 5% 96%  
35 11% 91%  
36 10% 80%  
37 29% 71% Median
38 12% 42%  
39 13% 30%  
40 6% 17%  
41 8% 11%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.9% 1.5%  
44 0.3% 0.6%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.3% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.7%  
32 0.6% 99.4%  
33 3% 98.8% Last Result
34 5% 96%  
35 11% 91%  
36 10% 80%  
37 29% 71% Median
38 12% 42%  
39 13% 30%  
40 6% 17%  
41 8% 11%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.9% 1.5%  
44 0.3% 0.6%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 2% 99.8%  
8 6% 98%  
9 10% 92%  
10 12% 82%  
11 7% 70%  
12 6% 63%  
13 11% 57%  
14 31% 46% Median
15 10% 15%  
16 3% 5%  
17 0.9% 2%  
18 0.6% 0.6%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations