Opinion Poll by Mediana for POP TV, 24 March 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 23.9% 21.7–26.3% 21.1–27.0% 20.6–27.6% 19.6–28.7%
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 22.9% 20.7–25.2% 20.1–25.9% 19.6–26.5% 18.6–27.6%
Levica 9.3% 9.4% 8.0–11.2% 7.6–11.7% 7.3–12.1% 6.7–13.0%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 9.4% 8.0–11.2% 7.6–11.7% 7.3–12.1% 6.7–13.0%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 8.2% 6.9–9.9% 6.5–10.3% 6.2–10.7% 5.7–11.6%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 5.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.8–6.8% 3.6–7.2% 3.1–7.9%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 4.7% 3.7–6.1% 3.5–6.4% 3.3–6.8% 2.9–7.5%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 4.5% 3.6–5.9% 3.3–6.2% 3.1–6.6% 2.7–7.3%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 4.0% 3.1–5.3% 2.9–5.6% 2.7–6.0% 2.3–6.6%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 2.3% 1.6–3.3% 1.5–3.6% 1.3–3.9% 1.1–4.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 23 20–25 20–26 19–27 18–29
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 21 19–24 18–25 18–26 17–28
Levica 9 9 7–10 7–11 7–11 6–12
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 9 7–10 7–11 6–11 6–12
Socialni demokrati 10 8 6–9 6–9 6–10 5–11
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 4 4–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Stranka modernega centra 10 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 4 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0–4

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.1% 100%  
18 1.0% 99.8%  
19 3% 98.9%  
20 9% 96%  
21 11% 87%  
22 16% 76%  
23 29% 60% Median
24 12% 31%  
25 12% 19%  
26 3% 7%  
27 3% 4%  
28 0.5% 1.2%  
29 0.5% 0.6%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.5% 99.9%  
18 7% 99.3%  
19 7% 93%  
20 14% 85%  
21 22% 71% Median
22 14% 49%  
23 20% 35%  
24 8% 15%  
25 3% 6% Last Result
26 2% 3%  
27 0.4% 1.0%  
28 0.5% 0.5%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 1.5% 99.9%  
7 21% 98%  
8 19% 78%  
9 31% 59% Last Result, Median
10 21% 29%  
11 6% 8%  
12 1.5% 2%  
13 0.3% 0.4%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 4% 99.8%  
7 13% 96% Last Result
8 27% 82%  
9 24% 56% Median
10 25% 31%  
11 5% 7%  
12 1.5% 2%  
13 0.3% 0.4%  
14 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 2% 99.9%  
6 16% 98%  
7 30% 82%  
8 30% 52% Median
9 17% 22%  
10 4% 5% Last Result
11 0.9% 1.0%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 0% 93%  
2 0% 93%  
3 1.4% 93%  
4 45% 92% Median
5 32% 47% Last Result
6 13% 16%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100%  
1 0% 86%  
2 0% 86%  
3 11% 86%  
4 37% 75% Median
5 30% 38% Last Result
6 7% 8%  
7 0.6% 0.6%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 31% 100%  
1 0% 69%  
2 0% 69%  
3 5% 69%  
4 34% 64% Median
5 26% 31%  
6 4% 5%  
7 0.8% 0.9%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 47% 100%  
1 0% 53%  
2 0% 53%  
3 2% 53%  
4 36% 50% Last Result, Median
5 13% 14%  
6 1.4% 2%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.1%  
2 0% 1.1%  
3 0.3% 1.1%  
4 0.8% 0.8%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 50 51 95% 47–53 46–55 45–56 43–56
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 48 83% 44–52 43–53 43–55 42–55
Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 46 56% 43–49 41–51 40–51 39–53
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka 38 44 35% 41–48 39–49 39–50 38–52
Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 43 15% 39–46 39–47 38–48 36–51
Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 43 11% 39–46 38–47 37–48 36–49
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 43 42 8% 38–45 37–46 35–47 34–48
Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati 30 39 0.9% 36–42 34–44 34–44 33–46
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 38 0% 34–41 33–42 31–42 30–44
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 34 0% 31–37 30–39 29–39 28–41
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 34 0% 30–37 30–38 29–39 27–40
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 31 0% 27–33 26–34 26–35 25–37
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 15 0% 11–18 10–18 8–19 7–20

Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.3% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.7%  
43 2% 99.7%  
44 0.4% 98%  
45 3% 98%  
46 4% 95% Majority
47 4% 91%  
48 9% 87%  
49 11% 79%  
50 17% 68% Last Result
51 20% 51%  
52 11% 31% Median
53 12% 20%  
54 2% 9%  
55 3% 6%  
56 3% 3%  
57 0.3% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.9%  
42 1.0% 99.5%  
43 5% 98.5% Last Result
44 4% 93%  
45 5% 89%  
46 7% 83% Majority
47 21% 76%  
48 15% 55% Median
49 9% 40%  
50 7% 31%  
51 12% 24%  
52 5% 11%  
53 2% 7%  
54 2% 5%  
55 3% 3%  
56 0.3% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.1% 99.7%  
39 2% 99.7%  
40 1.1% 98%  
41 2% 97%  
42 4% 94%  
43 5% 90%  
44 14% 86%  
45 15% 72% Last Result
46 8% 56% Majority
47 23% 48%  
48 9% 25% Median
49 7% 16%  
50 3% 9%  
51 4% 6%  
52 1.2% 2%  
53 0.3% 0.5%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.7% 99.9% Last Result
39 5% 99.2%  
40 2% 94%  
41 5% 92%  
42 12% 87%  
43 9% 75%  
44 22% 66% Median
45 8% 44%  
46 16% 35% Majority
47 6% 19%  
48 6% 13%  
49 3% 7%  
50 1.3% 3%  
51 0.7% 2%  
52 0.6% 1.0%  
53 0.2% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
36 0.4% 99.8%  
37 1.2% 99.3%  
38 3% 98%  
39 6% 95%  
40 8% 89%  
41 11% 81%  
42 15% 71%  
43 16% 55%  
44 9% 39% Median
45 15% 30%  
46 6% 15% Majority
47 5% 9%  
48 2% 4%  
49 2% 2%  
50 0.4% 0.9%  
51 0.5% 0.5%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 1.2% 99.8%  
37 2% 98.6%  
38 5% 97%  
39 8% 92%  
40 15% 84% Last Result
41 11% 69%  
42 7% 58%  
43 13% 50%  
44 21% 37% Median
45 5% 16%  
46 5% 11% Majority
47 3% 6%  
48 1.5% 3%  
49 0.9% 1.3%  
50 0.3% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.3% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.7%  
34 0.3% 99.6%  
35 2% 99.3%  
36 2% 97%  
37 3% 96%  
38 3% 93%  
39 11% 90%  
40 15% 78%  
41 6% 63%  
42 15% 57%  
43 22% 42% Last Result, Median
44 8% 21%  
45 5% 13%  
46 4% 8% Majority
47 3% 4%  
48 0.6% 0.8%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 1.0% 99.8%  
34 4% 98.8%  
35 4% 95%  
36 5% 91%  
37 8% 86%  
38 9% 77%  
39 24% 68%  
40 18% 44% Median
41 14% 26%  
42 4% 12%  
43 2% 8%  
44 3% 5%  
45 1.0% 2%  
46 0.7% 0.9% Majority
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.1% 99.7%  
30 0.4% 99.7%  
31 2% 99.3%  
32 2% 97%  
33 3% 95%  
34 5% 92%  
35 17% 87%  
36 10% 70%  
37 9% 59%  
38 13% 50% Last Result
39 18% 37% Median
40 6% 18%  
41 6% 12%  
42 4% 6%  
43 1.4% 2%  
44 0.3% 0.5%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.3% 99.9%  
28 1.1% 99.6% Last Result
29 1.1% 98.5%  
30 5% 97%  
31 11% 93%  
32 6% 82%  
33 10% 76%  
34 22% 66%  
35 17% 44% Median
36 11% 27%  
37 7% 16%  
38 4% 9%  
39 4% 5%  
40 0.6% 1.3%  
41 0.2% 0.7%  
42 0.5% 0.5%  
43 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.5% 99.8%  
28 1.1% 99.3%  
29 3% 98%  
30 13% 95%  
31 10% 82%  
32 12% 72%  
33 6% 60% Last Result
34 14% 54%  
35 13% 40% Median
36 16% 27%  
37 4% 10%  
38 4% 6%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.7% 1.1%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0.2% 100%  
25 1.3% 99.7%  
26 4% 98%  
27 6% 94%  
28 7% 88%  
29 8% 81%  
30 21% 73%  
31 26% 52% Median
32 13% 26%  
33 5% 13%  
34 4% 8%  
35 3% 4%  
36 1.0% 2%  
37 0.5% 0.6%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 2% 99.9%  
8 0.9% 98%  
9 2% 97%  
10 2% 95%  
11 5% 94%  
12 13% 89%  
13 12% 76%  
14 12% 64%  
15 11% 52%  
16 17% 41% Median
17 14% 24%  
18 6% 10%  
19 3% 4%  
20 0.9% 1.1%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations