Opinion Poll by Parsifal SC for Nova24TV, 1–4 April 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 27.7% 25.2–30.4% 24.5–31.2% 23.9–31.9% 22.7–33.2%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 24.6% 22.2–27.2% 21.5–28.0% 20.9–28.6% 19.8–29.9%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 10.4% 8.8–12.4% 8.4–13.0% 8.0–13.5% 7.3–14.5%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 7.3% 6.0–9.0% 5.6–9.5% 5.3–10.0% 4.7–10.9%
Levica 9.3% 6.9% 5.6–8.6% 5.2–9.1% 4.9–9.5% 4.4–10.4%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 6.2% 5.0–7.9% 4.7–8.4% 4.4–8.8% 3.9–9.6%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 4.8% 3.7–6.3% 3.5–6.7% 3.2–7.1% 2.8–7.9%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 4.4% 3.4–5.8% 3.1–6.2% 2.9–6.6% 2.5–7.4%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 3.1% 2.3–4.4% 2.1–4.8% 1.9–5.1% 1.6–5.8%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 2.7% 2.0–3.9% 1.8–4.3% 1.6–4.6% 1.3–5.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 27 24–29 23–31 23–31 21–33
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 24 21–27 21–28 20–28 19–29
Socialni demokrati 10 10 8–12 8–12 7–13 7–14
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 6 5–8 5–9 5–9 4–10
Levica 9 6 5–8 4–8 4–9 4–10
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 6 4–7 4–8 4–8 0–9
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 4 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–5

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.5% 99.9%  
22 1.3% 99.4%  
23 5% 98%  
24 12% 93%  
25 13% 81% Last Result
26 14% 68%  
27 18% 54% Median
28 14% 36%  
29 12% 22%  
30 4% 10%  
31 3% 6%  
32 2% 2%  
33 0.5% 0.6%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.2% 100%  
19 1.1% 99.8%  
20 2% 98.7%  
21 10% 97%  
22 12% 87%  
23 14% 75%  
24 15% 60% Median
25 17% 46%  
26 17% 29%  
27 7% 13%  
28 3% 5%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.3% 0.4%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100%  
7 3% 99.7%  
8 12% 96%  
9 28% 85%  
10 28% 57% Last Result, Median
11 15% 29%  
12 11% 14%  
13 2% 4%  
14 0.8% 1.3%  
15 0.4% 0.5%  
16 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.0% 100%  
5 10% 99.0%  
6 41% 89% Median
7 25% 48% Last Result
8 15% 23%  
9 6% 9%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 7% 99.7%  
5 15% 93%  
6 38% 77% Median
7 18% 39%  
8 16% 21%  
9 3% 4% Last Result
10 0.9% 1.0%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100%  
1 0% 99.0%  
2 0% 99.0%  
3 0.1% 99.0%  
4 14% 98.8% Last Result
5 27% 84%  
6 33% 57% Median
7 16% 25%  
8 6% 8%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100% Last Result
1 0% 85%  
2 0% 85%  
3 0.5% 85%  
4 39% 85% Median
5 35% 46%  
6 9% 11%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 28% 100%  
1 0% 72%  
2 0% 72%  
3 5% 72%  
4 40% 67% Median
5 19% 27% Last Result
6 8% 9%  
7 0.6% 0.7%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 77% 100% Median
1 0% 23%  
2 0% 23%  
3 5% 23%  
4 13% 18%  
5 5% 5% Last Result
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Median
1 0% 10%  
2 0% 10%  
3 0.5% 10%  
4 9% 9%  
5 0.6% 0.7%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 54 99.9% 50–58 49–59 48–60 46–61
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 51 98% 47–55 46–55 46–57 44–59
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 50 45 45% 42–48 41–49 40–50 38–52
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 44 33% 41–47 40–48 38–49 37–52
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 44 28% 41–47 39–48 38–48 37–50
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 41 4% 38–44 36–45 36–47 34–48
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 41 5% 38–44 37–46 36–47 35–48
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 43 39 0.3% 35–41 34–42 32–43 30–44
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 37 0.1% 34–40 32–41 31–42 30–43
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 38 0.1% 34–40 33–41 31–42 30–43
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 35 0% 31–37 30–39 30–39 28–41
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 34 0% 31–37 30–38 29–39 28–40
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 13 0% 10–17 9–17 8–18 7–20

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100% Last Result
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.5% 99.9% Majority
47 0.7% 99.4%  
48 3% 98.8%  
49 3% 96%  
50 3% 93%  
51 11% 90%  
52 11% 79%  
53 8% 68%  
54 15% 60%  
55 14% 45% Median
56 10% 31%  
57 9% 20%  
58 4% 11%  
59 5% 7%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.5% 0.7%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0.2% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.8%  
44 0.8% 99.5%  
45 1.0% 98.7%  
46 3% 98% Majority
47 6% 95%  
48 13% 89%  
49 10% 75%  
50 12% 65%  
51 15% 54% Median
52 11% 39%  
53 10% 28%  
54 4% 18%  
55 10% 14%  
56 1.3% 5%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.7% 1.4%  
59 0.5% 0.6%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.6% 99.7%  
39 1.4% 99.1%  
40 2% 98%  
41 3% 96%  
42 5% 93%  
43 12% 88%  
44 14% 76% Median
45 17% 62%  
46 17% 45% Majority
47 11% 28%  
48 8% 18%  
49 5% 10%  
50 3% 5% Last Result
51 0.9% 2%  
52 0.6% 0.9%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.4% 99.8%  
38 2% 99.4%  
39 2% 97%  
40 3% 95%  
41 7% 93%  
42 7% 86%  
43 15% 79%  
44 15% 63% Median
45 15% 48% Last Result
46 15% 33% Majority
47 8% 18%  
48 6% 10%  
49 1.1% 3%  
50 1.2% 2%  
51 0.3% 0.8%  
52 0.4% 0.5%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100% Last Result
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 0.7% 99.7%  
38 3% 99.0%  
39 3% 96%  
40 3% 93%  
41 8% 90%  
42 10% 82%  
43 15% 73%  
44 15% 57% Median
45 14% 42%  
46 12% 28% Majority
47 7% 15%  
48 6% 8%  
49 0.7% 2%  
50 1.0% 1.5%  
51 0.1% 0.5%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.5%  
36 3% 98%  
37 5% 95%  
38 11% 90%  
39 13% 79%  
40 13% 66% Median
41 15% 53%  
42 15% 38%  
43 9% 23%  
44 7% 14%  
45 3% 7%  
46 1.3% 4% Majority
47 2% 3%  
48 0.5% 0.8%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 1.0% 99.7%  
36 2% 98.7%  
37 4% 96%  
38 9% 92%  
39 11% 83%  
40 13% 72% Last Result, Median
41 15% 59%  
42 16% 45%  
43 12% 28%  
44 8% 16%  
45 3% 8%  
46 2% 5% Majority
47 2% 3%  
48 0.7% 1.1%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.9%  
31 0.9% 99.4%  
32 2% 98.6%  
33 1.1% 97%  
34 5% 96%  
35 6% 91%  
36 5% 85%  
37 8% 80%  
38 13% 71% Median
39 22% 58%  
40 17% 37%  
41 10% 20%  
42 6% 10%  
43 3% 4% Last Result
44 0.7% 1.2%  
45 0.1% 0.5%  
46 0.1% 0.3% Majority
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100% Last Result
29 0.2% 99.8%  
30 0.9% 99.7%  
31 2% 98.8%  
32 2% 97%  
33 3% 95%  
34 7% 91%  
35 12% 85%  
36 11% 73%  
37 12% 62%  
38 12% 50% Median
39 20% 38%  
40 10% 18%  
41 6% 8%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.6% 0.9%  
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.8% 99.7%  
31 2% 99.0%  
32 2% 97%  
33 2% 96%  
34 6% 93%  
35 9% 87%  
36 9% 78%  
37 12% 69%  
38 12% 57% Last Result, Median
39 22% 44%  
40 12% 22%  
41 6% 10%  
42 2% 4%  
43 1.0% 1.4%  
44 0.2% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.3% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.7%  
29 2% 99.2%  
30 4% 98%  
31 9% 94%  
32 10% 84%  
33 7% 75% Last Result
34 14% 68% Median
35 19% 54%  
36 18% 35%  
37 8% 17%  
38 3% 8%  
39 4% 5%  
40 0.9% 1.5%  
41 0.3% 0.5%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.3% 99.9%  
28 0.6% 99.6%  
29 2% 99.0%  
30 4% 97%  
31 11% 92%  
32 13% 81%  
33 7% 68%  
34 15% 61% Median
35 18% 46%  
36 15% 28%  
37 7% 14%  
38 3% 7%  
39 3% 4%  
40 0.6% 0.9%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.5% 99.9%  
8 3% 99.4%  
9 3% 96%  
10 7% 93%  
11 7% 86%  
12 8% 79%  
13 23% 71%  
14 14% 48% Median
15 15% 34%  
16 9% 20%  
17 5% 10%  
18 3% 5%  
19 1.1% 2%  
20 0.3% 0.5%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations