Opinion Poll by Mediana for POP TV, 28 April 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 27.1% 24.8–29.6% 24.2–30.3% 23.6–30.9% 22.6–32.1%
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 22.5% 20.4–24.8% 19.8–25.5% 19.3–26.0% 18.3–27.2%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 10.1% 8.7–11.9% 8.3–12.4% 7.9–12.8% 7.3–13.7%
Levica 9.3% 9.3% 7.9–11.0% 7.5–11.5% 7.2–11.9% 6.6–12.8%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 8.6% 7.3–10.2% 6.9–10.7% 6.6–11.1% 6.0–12.0%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 6.2% 5.1–7.7% 4.8–8.1% 4.5–8.4% 4.0–9.2%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 5.5% 4.5–6.9% 4.2–7.3% 3.9–7.7% 3.5–8.4%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 3.8% 2.9–5.0% 2.7–5.3% 2.5–5.7% 2.1–6.3%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 2.4% 1.8–3.4% 1.6–3.7% 1.4–4.0% 1.2–4.6%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 2.1% 1.5–3.0% 1.3–3.3% 1.2–3.6% 1.0–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 27 24–28 23–29 23–30 22–31
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 22 20–24 19–25 19–25 18–27
Socialni demokrati 10 10 8–11 8–12 7–13 7–13
Levica 9 9 8–10 7–11 7–11 6–12
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 8 7–10 6–10 6–11 6–11
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 6 5–7 4–8 4–8 0–9
Stranka modernega centra 10 5 4–6 4–7 0–7 0–8
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–6
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0 0 0 0–3

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.2% 100%  
22 1.5% 99.7%  
23 7% 98%  
24 8% 91%  
25 17% 84%  
26 13% 67%  
27 22% 54% Median
28 23% 32%  
29 5% 10%  
30 3% 5%  
31 0.8% 1.2%  
32 0.3% 0.4%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 1.4% 99.7%  
19 6% 98%  
20 9% 93%  
21 15% 84%  
22 29% 69% Median
23 11% 40%  
24 24% 29%  
25 3% 6% Last Result
26 2% 2%  
27 0.4% 0.6%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100%  
7 3% 99.7%  
8 12% 96%  
9 24% 85%  
10 33% 61% Last Result, Median
11 19% 28%  
12 6% 9%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 2% 99.7%  
7 7% 98%  
8 15% 91%  
9 40% 76% Last Result, Median
10 29% 35%  
11 5% 6%  
12 1.0% 1.2%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.4% 100%  
6 9% 99.5%  
7 25% 91% Last Result
8 32% 66% Median
9 22% 34%  
10 10% 13%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.4% 0.5%  
13 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.7% 100%  
1 0% 99.3%  
2 0% 99.3%  
3 0% 99.3%  
4 7% 99.2% Last Result
5 24% 92%  
6 52% 68% Median
7 11% 16%  
8 4% 5%  
9 1.3% 1.3%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 0% 95%  
2 0% 95%  
3 0.1% 95%  
4 19% 95%  
5 37% 77% Median
6 34% 40%  
7 5% 6%  
8 0.9% 1.0%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 68% 100% Median
1 0% 32%  
2 0% 32%  
3 1.1% 32%  
4 25% 31%  
5 6% 7% Last Result
6 0.9% 0.9%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0.1% 2%  
4 1.3% 1.4%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Median
1 0% 0.6%  
2 0% 0.6%  
3 0.2% 0.6%  
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek 50 50 99.4% 48–53 47–54 47–55 45–57
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 45 50 99.3% 48–53 47–54 47–55 45–57
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 50 98% 47–53 47–54 46–55 44–56
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 50 95% 47–52 46–53 45–54 43–55
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka 38 49 88% 45–51 44–52 44–53 43–54
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 45 48% 43–49 43–49 42–50 40–52
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 44 24% 42–47 41–48 40–49 39–50
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek 43 43 11% 40–46 39–47 38–47 37–49
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 38 43 10% 40–46 39–47 38–47 37–49
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 42 3% 38–44 37–45 37–46 35–47
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 38 0.1% 35–41 34–42 33–42 32–44
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 36 0% 33–38 33–40 32–40 31–42
Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 25 16 0% 14–19 13–20 11–21 9–23

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.4% 99.7%  
46 1.3% 99.4% Majority
47 3% 98%  
48 8% 95%  
49 11% 87%  
50 29% 77% Last Result, Median
51 17% 48%  
52 9% 31%  
53 13% 23%  
54 4% 9%  
55 3% 5%  
56 1.1% 2%  
57 0.4% 0.7%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.4% 99.7% Last Result
46 1.4% 99.3% Majority
47 3% 98%  
48 8% 95%  
49 11% 87%  
50 29% 76% Median
51 17% 48%  
52 9% 31%  
53 13% 22%  
54 4% 9%  
55 3% 5%  
56 1.0% 2%  
57 0.4% 0.6%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100% Last Result
44 0.6% 99.9%  
45 1.2% 99.3%  
46 3% 98% Majority
47 7% 95%  
48 12% 88%  
49 19% 76% Median
50 17% 58%  
51 19% 41%  
52 10% 22%  
53 5% 12%  
54 4% 7%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.4% 0.9%  
57 0.3% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100% Last Result
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.4% 99.8%  
44 0.8% 99.4%  
45 3% 98.7%  
46 4% 95% Majority
47 11% 91%  
48 13% 80%  
49 15% 68%  
50 28% 52% Median
51 10% 24%  
52 5% 14%  
53 6% 9%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.8% 1.1%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 2% 99.6%  
44 3% 98%  
45 7% 95%  
46 6% 88% Majority
47 11% 81%  
48 14% 70%  
49 17% 56% Median
50 17% 40%  
51 14% 23%  
52 6% 9%  
53 2% 3%  
54 1.0% 1.4%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.7% 99.9%  
41 0.9% 99.2%  
42 3% 98%  
43 7% 95%  
44 22% 88%  
45 19% 67% Median
46 16% 48% Majority
47 11% 31%  
48 8% 20%  
49 9% 13%  
50 2% 4%  
51 1.5% 2%  
52 0.4% 0.7%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.5% 99.6%  
40 2% 99.2%  
41 5% 97%  
42 12% 92%  
43 10% 80%  
44 26% 69%  
45 20% 44% Median
46 8% 24% Majority
47 9% 16%  
48 4% 7%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.6% 1.0%  
51 0.3% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.3% 99.8%  
37 1.0% 99.6%  
38 3% 98.6%  
39 3% 96%  
40 9% 93%  
41 8% 84%  
42 24% 76% Median
43 22% 52% Last Result
44 11% 30%  
45 8% 19%  
46 5% 11% Majority
47 4% 6%  
48 1.5% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.3% 99.8%  
37 1.0% 99.6%  
38 3% 98.5% Last Result
39 3% 96%  
40 9% 93%  
41 8% 84%  
42 24% 76% Median
43 22% 52%  
44 11% 29%  
45 8% 19%  
46 5% 10% Majority
47 4% 5%  
48 1.5% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.5% 99.7%  
36 0.8% 99.2%  
37 4% 98%  
38 10% 95%  
39 8% 85%  
40 12% 77%  
41 13% 65%  
42 19% 53% Median
43 20% 33%  
44 8% 14%  
45 2% 5%  
46 2% 3% Majority
47 0.5% 0.6%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.7% 99.8%  
33 3% 99.1%  
34 3% 96%  
35 5% 93%  
36 23% 88%  
37 12% 65% Median
38 25% 53%  
39 10% 28%  
40 9% 19%  
41 5% 10%  
42 4% 5%  
43 1.2% 2%  
44 0.4% 0.6%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.8% 99.7%  
32 2% 99.0%  
33 11% 97%  
34 6% 85%  
35 12% 80%  
36 25% 68%  
37 10% 43% Median
38 23% 33%  
39 4% 10%  
40 5% 6%  
41 0.8% 1.4%  
42 0.4% 0.6%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.4% 99.9%  
10 0.5% 99.5%  
11 2% 99.0%  
12 0.9% 97%  
13 4% 96%  
14 8% 92%  
15 31% 84% Median
16 14% 53%  
17 9% 38%  
18 9% 29%  
19 13% 21%  
20 4% 8%  
21 2% 3%  
22 1.1% 2%  
23 0.5% 0.6%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations