Opinion Poll by Mediana for POP TV, 8–15 May 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 12.6% | 24.0% | 22.1–26.2% | 21.6–26.7% | 21.1–27.3% | 20.2–28.3% |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 24.9% | 22.0% | 20.1–24.1% | 19.6–24.6% | 19.1–25.1% | 18.3–26.2% |
| Levica | 9.3% | 12.2% | 10.7–13.8% | 10.3–14.3% | 10.0–14.7% | 9.3–15.6% |
| Socialni demokrati | 9.9% | 10.1% | 8.8–11.7% | 8.4–12.1% | 8.1–12.5% | 7.5–13.3% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.9–9.5% | 6.6–9.9% | 6.3–10.3% | 5.8–11.0% |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.3–6.4% | 4.0–6.8% | 3.8–7.1% | 3.4–7.7% |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.8–5.8% | 3.5–6.1% | 3.3–6.4% | 3.0–7.0% |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.6–4.3% | 2.4–4.6% | 2.2–4.8% | 1.9–5.4% |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.5–4.1% | 2.3–4.4% | 2.1–4.7% | 1.8–5.2% |
| Stranka modernega centra | 9.7% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.4% | 1.1–2.7% | 0.9–2.9% | 0.8–3.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 13 | 23 | 21–26 | 21–26 | 20–27 | 19–28 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 25 | 22 | 19–23 | 19–24 | 18–24 | 17–26 |
| Levica | 9 | 12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–14 | 9–15 |
| Socialni demokrati | 10 | 10 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–12 | 7–13 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7 | 8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 5–10 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4 | 4 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 0–7 | 0–7 |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 5 | 4 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Stranka modernega centra | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Lista Marjana Šarca
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 21 | 8% | 97% | |
| 22 | 26% | 89% | |
| 23 | 20% | 63% | Median |
| 24 | 19% | 43% | |
| 25 | 12% | 24% | |
| 26 | 7% | 11% | |
| 27 | 4% | 5% | |
| 28 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska demokratska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 19 | 6% | 96% | |
| 20 | 18% | 90% | |
| 21 | 17% | 72% | |
| 22 | 36% | 54% | Median |
| 23 | 11% | 19% | |
| 24 | 6% | 8% | |
| 25 | 1.0% | 2% | Last Result |
| 26 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Levica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 9 | 3% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 10 | 18% | 97% | |
| 11 | 13% | 79% | |
| 12 | 34% | 66% | Median |
| 13 | 28% | 32% | |
| 14 | 3% | 4% | |
| 15 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 21% | 97% | |
| 9 | 25% | 77% | |
| 10 | 35% | 52% | Last Result, Median |
| 11 | 12% | 16% | |
| 12 | 4% | 5% | |
| 13 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 11% | 98% | |
| 7 | 25% | 88% | Last Result |
| 8 | 43% | 63% | Median |
| 9 | 16% | 20% | |
| 10 | 4% | 4% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 95% | |
| 2 | 0% | 95% | |
| 3 | 4% | 95% | |
| 4 | 48% | 91% | Last Result, Median |
| 5 | 24% | 43% | |
| 6 | 16% | 19% | |
| 7 | 3% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 86% | |
| 2 | 0% | 86% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 86% | |
| 4 | 39% | 85% | Median |
| 5 | 40% | 45% | Last Result |
| 6 | 5% | 5% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska ljudska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 11% | |
| 2 | 0% | 11% | |
| 3 | 1.2% | 11% | |
| 4 | 9% | 10% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka Alenke Bratušek
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 11% | |
| 2 | 0% | 11% | |
| 3 | 2% | 11% | |
| 4 | 8% | 9% | |
| 5 | 0.8% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka modernega centra
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 43 | 49 | 92% | 46–51 | 45–52 | 44–53 | 42–54 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra | 50 | 45 | 28% | 42–48 | 41–48 | 41–49 | 39–51 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka | 38 | 45 | 36% | 42–48 | 41–49 | 41–49 | 39–51 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 35 | 45 | 22% | 42–47 | 41–48 | 40–49 | 38–50 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 45 | 45 | 22% | 42–47 | 41–48 | 40–49 | 38–50 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 30 | 40 | 2% | 38–44 | 37–45 | 37–45 | 35–47 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra | 40 | 40 | 2% | 38–44 | 37–45 | 37–45 | 35–47 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra | 43 | 37 | 0% | 35–40 | 34–41 | 33–41 | 31–43 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 28 | 37 | 0% | 34–39 | 33–40 | 32–41 | 31–42 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 38 | 37 | 0% | 34–39 | 33–40 | 32–41 | 31–42 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati | 23 | 32 | 0% | 30–36 | 30–37 | 29–37 | 28–38 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra | 33 | 32 | 0% | 30–36 | 30–37 | 29–37 | 28–38 |
| Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 25 | 14 | 0% | 10–15 | 9–16 | 9–16 | 8–17 |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 43 | 1.1% | 98.9% | Last Result |
| 44 | 2% | 98% | |
| 45 | 4% | 96% | |
| 46 | 6% | 92% | Majority |
| 47 | 12% | 86% | |
| 48 | 14% | 74% | |
| 49 | 28% | 60% | Median |
| 50 | 14% | 32% | |
| 51 | 13% | 18% | |
| 52 | 3% | 6% | |
| 53 | 2% | 3% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 40 | 1.1% | 99.0% | |
| 41 | 3% | 98% | |
| 42 | 7% | 94% | |
| 43 | 3% | 87% | |
| 44 | 21% | 84% | |
| 45 | 35% | 63% | Median |
| 46 | 10% | 28% | Majority |
| 47 | 7% | 18% | |
| 48 | 7% | 11% | |
| 49 | 2% | 4% | |
| 50 | 1.0% | 2% | Last Result |
| 51 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 40 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 41 | 5% | 98% | |
| 42 | 6% | 93% | |
| 43 | 11% | 87% | |
| 44 | 25% | 76% | |
| 45 | 15% | 51% | Median |
| 46 | 21% | 36% | Majority |
| 47 | 4% | 15% | |
| 48 | 5% | 10% | |
| 49 | 4% | 5% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 39 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 40 | 3% | 98% | |
| 41 | 4% | 95% | |
| 42 | 9% | 91% | |
| 43 | 5% | 82% | |
| 44 | 20% | 77% | |
| 45 | 34% | 56% | Median |
| 46 | 8% | 22% | Majority |
| 47 | 5% | 14% | |
| 48 | 6% | 9% | |
| 49 | 2% | 3% | |
| 50 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 39 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 40 | 3% | 98% | |
| 41 | 4% | 95% | |
| 42 | 9% | 91% | |
| 43 | 5% | 82% | |
| 44 | 20% | 77% | |
| 45 | 34% | 56% | Last Result, Median |
| 46 | 8% | 22% | Majority |
| 47 | 5% | 14% | |
| 48 | 6% | 9% | |
| 49 | 2% | 3% | |
| 50 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 37 | 5% | 98% | |
| 38 | 7% | 93% | |
| 39 | 9% | 86% | |
| 40 | 41% | 77% | |
| 41 | 10% | 35% | Median |
| 42 | 8% | 26% | |
| 43 | 4% | 18% | |
| 44 | 8% | 13% | |
| 45 | 4% | 6% | |
| 46 | 0.5% | 2% | Majority |
| 47 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 37 | 5% | 98% | |
| 38 | 7% | 93% | |
| 39 | 9% | 86% | |
| 40 | 41% | 77% | Last Result |
| 41 | 10% | 35% | Median |
| 42 | 8% | 26% | |
| 43 | 4% | 18% | |
| 44 | 8% | 13% | |
| 45 | 4% | 6% | |
| 46 | 0.5% | 2% | Majority |
| 47 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 32 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 33 | 3% | 98.5% | |
| 34 | 4% | 96% | |
| 35 | 7% | 91% | |
| 36 | 14% | 84% | |
| 37 | 38% | 70% | Median |
| 38 | 10% | 32% | |
| 39 | 11% | 22% | |
| 40 | 5% | 11% | |
| 41 | 4% | 6% | |
| 42 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 43 | 0.8% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 32 | 2% | 98% | |
| 33 | 4% | 97% | |
| 34 | 6% | 93% | |
| 35 | 7% | 87% | |
| 36 | 16% | 80% | |
| 37 | 38% | 64% | Median |
| 38 | 9% | 26% | |
| 39 | 10% | 17% | |
| 40 | 3% | 7% | |
| 41 | 3% | 4% | |
| 42 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 32 | 2% | 98% | |
| 33 | 4% | 97% | |
| 34 | 6% | 93% | |
| 35 | 7% | 87% | |
| 36 | 16% | 80% | |
| 37 | 38% | 64% | Median |
| 38 | 9% | 26% | Last Result |
| 39 | 10% | 17% | |
| 40 | 3% | 7% | |
| 41 | 3% | 4% | |
| 42 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 30 | 7% | 97% | |
| 31 | 9% | 90% | |
| 32 | 36% | 81% | |
| 33 | 17% | 45% | Median |
| 34 | 9% | 28% | |
| 35 | 8% | 19% | |
| 36 | 4% | 11% | |
| 37 | 5% | 7% | |
| 38 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 30 | 7% | 97% | |
| 31 | 9% | 90% | |
| 32 | 36% | 81% | |
| 33 | 17% | 45% | Last Result, Median |
| 34 | 9% | 28% | |
| 35 | 8% | 19% | |
| 36 | 4% | 11% | |
| 37 | 5% | 7% | |
| 38 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 9 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 10 | 5% | 95% | |
| 11 | 3% | 89% | |
| 12 | 9% | 86% | |
| 13 | 27% | 78% | |
| 14 | 17% | 51% | Median |
| 15 | 27% | 34% | |
| 16 | 5% | 7% | |
| 17 | 2% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Mediana
- Commissioner(s): POP TV
- Fieldwork period: 8–15 May 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 732
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.89%