Opinion Poll by Mediana for POP TV, 1–23 June 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 26.9% 24.8–29.1% 24.2–29.7% 23.8–30.3% 22.8–31.3%
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 24.2% 22.3–26.4% 21.7–27.0% 21.2–27.5% 20.3–28.5%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 12.3% 10.8–14.0% 10.4–14.4% 10.1–14.9% 9.4–15.7%
Levica 9.3% 9.5% 8.2–11.0% 7.8–11.5% 7.5–11.8% 7.0–12.6%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 9.5% 8.2–11.0% 7.8–11.5% 7.5–11.8% 7.0–12.6%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 4.7% 3.9–5.9% 3.6–6.2% 3.4–6.6% 3.0–7.2%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 3.9% 3.1–5.0% 2.9–5.3% 2.7–5.6% 2.4–6.2%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 3.2% 2.5–4.2% 2.3–4.5% 2.1–4.8% 1.8–5.3%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 3.2% 2.5–4.2% 2.3–4.5% 2.1–4.8% 1.8–5.3%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 1.9% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.2% 1.0–3.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 27 24–28 23–29 23–30 22–32
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 23 22–26 20–27 20–28 20–29
Socialni demokrati 10 11 10–13 10–14 9–15 9–15
Levica 9 9 8–11 7–11 7–12 6–13
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 9 8–11 8–11 7–12 6–12
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 4 4–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–5
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–5
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.3% 100%  
22 1.2% 99.7%  
23 4% 98.6%  
24 7% 94%  
25 19% 87%  
26 15% 67%  
27 20% 52% Median
28 26% 33%  
29 4% 7%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.6% 1.1%  
32 0.3% 0.6%  
33 0.3% 0.3%  
34 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.4% 99.9%  
20 5% 99.5%  
21 3% 95%  
22 25% 91%  
23 16% 66% Median
24 26% 50%  
25 12% 24% Last Result
26 6% 12%  
27 3% 6%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.8% 0.9%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.3% 100%  
9 2% 99.7%  
10 9% 97% Last Result
11 40% 88% Median
12 26% 48%  
13 13% 22%  
14 5% 9%  
15 4% 4%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 0.9% 99.9%  
7 8% 99.1%  
8 17% 91%  
9 30% 74% Last Result, Median
10 25% 45%  
11 15% 19%  
12 4% 4%  
13 0.4% 0.5%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.5% 100%  
7 4% 99.5% Last Result
8 15% 95%  
9 38% 80% Median
10 29% 42%  
11 9% 14%  
12 4% 5%  
13 0.3% 0.4%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 0% 91%  
2 0% 91%  
3 0.4% 91%  
4 53% 91% Last Result, Median
5 24% 38%  
6 12% 13%  
7 1.4% 2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 51% 100% Median
1 0% 49%  
2 0% 49%  
3 1.0% 49%  
4 32% 48%  
5 16% 17% Last Result
6 0.4% 0.5%  
7 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 75% 100% Median
1 0% 25%  
2 0% 25%  
3 1.0% 25%  
4 23% 25%  
5 2% 2% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 9%  
2 0% 9%  
3 0.4% 9%  
4 8% 9%  
5 0.9% 1.0%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 52 99.7% 49–56 49–57 48–57 46–59
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 50 51 98% 48–53 47–54 46–55 44–56
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka 38 50 98% 47–52 46–54 46–55 44–57
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 49 96% 47–53 46–54 45–54 43–55
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 49 96% 47–53 46–54 45–54 43–55
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 48 78% 45–50 44–52 43–52 42–54
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 48 78% 45–50 44–52 43–52 42–54
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 43 42 3% 38–45 37–45 36–46 35–48
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 40 1.4% 37–44 37–45 36–45 34–46
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 40 1.4% 37–44 37–45 36–45 34–46
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 38 0.1% 36–41 35–42 34–42 33–44
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 38 0.1% 36–41 35–42 34–42 33–44
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 14 0% 11–17 10–17 10–18 9–19

Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100% Last Result
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.9% 99.7% Majority
47 1.0% 98.7%  
48 3% 98%  
49 8% 95%  
50 14% 87% Median
51 20% 73%  
52 19% 53%  
53 8% 34%  
54 7% 26%  
55 8% 19%  
56 3% 11%  
57 7% 8%  
58 0.5% 1.1%  
59 0.2% 0.6%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.8%  
45 2% 99.5%  
46 3% 98% Majority
47 4% 95% Median
48 10% 91%  
49 17% 80%  
50 10% 64% Last Result
51 15% 53%  
52 8% 39%  
53 22% 31%  
54 5% 9%  
55 3% 4%  
56 1.0% 1.4%  
57 0.3% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0.2% 100%  
44 0.7% 99.8%  
45 1.4% 99.1%  
46 3% 98% Majority
47 13% 95%  
48 11% 81%  
49 10% 70%  
50 22% 60% Median
51 10% 38%  
52 18% 28%  
53 3% 10%  
54 3% 6%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.3% 2%  
57 1.1% 1.3%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0.2% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.8%  
44 1.4% 99.4%  
45 2% 98%  
46 3% 96% Majority
47 11% 93% Median
48 13% 82%  
49 25% 69%  
50 12% 44%  
51 9% 32%  
52 5% 23%  
53 13% 18%  
54 3% 6%  
55 2% 2%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.2% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.8%  
44 1.4% 99.4%  
45 2% 98% Last Result
46 3% 96% Majority
47 11% 93% Median
48 13% 82%  
49 25% 69%  
50 12% 44%  
51 9% 32%  
52 5% 23%  
53 13% 18%  
54 3% 6%  
55 2% 2%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.8%  
42 0.5% 99.6%  
43 2% 99.1%  
44 5% 97%  
45 14% 92%  
46 13% 78% Majority
47 14% 65% Median
48 19% 52%  
49 17% 32%  
50 5% 15%  
51 4% 10%  
52 3% 6%  
53 1.5% 2%  
54 0.6% 0.9%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100% Last Result
41 0.2% 99.8%  
42 0.5% 99.6%  
43 2% 99.1%  
44 5% 97%  
45 14% 92%  
46 13% 78% Majority
47 14% 66% Median
48 19% 52%  
49 17% 32%  
50 5% 15%  
51 4% 10%  
52 3% 6%  
53 1.5% 2%  
54 0.6% 0.9%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.6% 99.8%  
36 2% 99.2%  
37 5% 97%  
38 10% 92% Median
39 13% 82%  
40 10% 69%  
41 9% 59%  
42 14% 50%  
43 7% 36% Last Result
44 18% 29%  
45 8% 11%  
46 2% 3% Majority
47 0.2% 0.8%  
48 0.5% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.7% 99.8%  
35 0.9% 99.1%  
36 3% 98%  
37 6% 95%  
38 16% 89% Median
39 15% 73%  
40 20% 58%  
41 10% 39%  
42 9% 29%  
43 5% 20%  
44 8% 16%  
45 6% 8%  
46 1.2% 1.4% Majority
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.7% 99.8%  
35 0.9% 99.1%  
36 3% 98%  
37 6% 95%  
38 16% 89% Last Result, Median
39 15% 73%  
40 20% 59%  
41 10% 39%  
42 9% 29%  
43 5% 21%  
44 8% 16%  
45 6% 8%  
46 1.2% 1.4% Majority
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.8% 99.8%  
34 3% 99.0%  
35 5% 96%  
36 17% 91%  
37 11% 74%  
38 18% 62% Median
39 18% 44%  
40 14% 25%  
41 5% 11%  
42 5% 7%  
43 1.0% 2%  
44 0.6% 1.0%  
45 0.3% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.8% 99.8% Last Result
34 3% 99.0%  
35 5% 96%  
36 17% 91%  
37 11% 74%  
38 18% 62% Median
39 18% 44%  
40 14% 26%  
41 5% 11%  
42 5% 7%  
43 1.0% 2%  
44 0.6% 1.0%  
45 0.3% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.5% 99.9%  
10 5% 99.4%  
11 20% 94% Median
12 13% 75%  
13 8% 62%  
14 7% 54%  
15 19% 47%  
16 12% 28%  
17 12% 16%  
18 4% 5%  
19 0.8% 1.0%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations