Opinion Poll by Mediana for Delo, 31 July–8 August 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 24.5% 22.5–26.6% 22.0–27.2% 21.5–27.7% 20.6–28.7%
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 20.7% 18.8–22.7% 18.3–23.2% 17.9–23.7% 17.0–24.7%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 10.5% 9.1–12.0% 8.8–12.5% 8.4–12.9% 7.8–13.7%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 9.6% 8.4–11.2% 8.0–11.6% 7.7–12.0% 7.1–12.8%
Levica 9.3% 9.4% 8.1–10.9% 7.8–11.3% 7.5–11.7% 6.9–12.5%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 4.8% 3.9–5.9% 3.6–6.2% 3.4–6.6% 3.1–7.1%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 4.2% 3.4–5.3% 3.2–5.6% 3.0–5.9% 2.6–6.5%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 3.3% 2.6–4.3% 2.4–4.6% 2.2–4.8% 1.9–5.3%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 3.3% 2.6–4.3% 2.4–4.6% 2.2–4.8% 1.9–5.3%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 2.6% 2.0–3.5% 1.8–3.8% 1.7–4.0% 1.4–4.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 24 22–26 21–27 21–27 20–29
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 20 18–22 18–23 17–24 17–25
Socialni demokrati 10 10 9–11 8–12 8–13 7–13
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 9 8–11 8–11 7–12 7–12
Levica 9 9 7–11 7–11 7–11 6–12
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Stranka modernega centra 10 4 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0 0 0 0–4

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.2% 100%  
20 2% 99.8%  
21 7% 98%  
22 15% 91%  
23 18% 76%  
24 11% 59% Median
25 25% 47%  
26 14% 22%  
27 6% 8%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.5% 0.6%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.4% 99.9%  
17 3% 99.5%  
18 9% 96%  
19 14% 87%  
20 35% 72% Median
21 21% 38%  
22 8% 16%  
23 5% 8%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.6% 0.9% Last Result
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.7% 100%  
8 6% 99.3%  
9 35% 93%  
10 36% 58% Last Result, Median
11 13% 22%  
12 7% 10%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.4% 100%  
7 4% 99.6% Last Result
8 19% 96%  
9 44% 77% Median
10 21% 33%  
11 9% 12%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.4% 0.5%  
14 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.5% 100%  
7 11% 99.4%  
8 21% 88%  
9 26% 67% Last Result, Median
10 30% 41%  
11 9% 11%  
12 1.0% 1.4%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100%  
1 0% 87%  
2 0% 87%  
3 0.2% 87%  
4 55% 87% Last Result, Median
5 22% 31%  
6 8% 9%  
7 1.5% 2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 33% 100%  
1 0% 67%  
2 0% 67%  
3 0.8% 67%  
4 32% 66% Median
5 33% 34%  
6 1.1% 1.1%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 79% 100% Median
1 0% 21%  
2 0% 21%  
3 3% 21%  
4 16% 18%  
5 2% 2% Last Result
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 79% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 21%  
2 0% 21%  
3 2% 21%  
4 19% 20%  
5 0.7% 0.7%  
6 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0.4% 2%  
4 1.3% 1.3%  
5 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek 50 48 73% 43–50 42–51 41–52 40–53
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 45 48 72% 43–50 42–51 41–52 40–53
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 47 58% 42–49 42–50 41–51 40–53
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 45 36% 42–48 41–49 41–50 40–52
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka 38 45 24% 41–47 41–48 40–49 38–51
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 44 24% 41–47 40–48 39–49 39–50
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 43 15% 40–46 39–47 39–48 38–49
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek 43 39 0.1% 33–41 33–42 33–42 31–44
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 38 39 0% 33–41 33–42 33–42 31–44
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 37 0% 33–40 33–41 32–41 31–43
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 34 0% 32–38 31–39 31–39 30–41
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 34 0% 31–36 30–37 30–39 29–40
Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 25 14 0% 10–18 9–18 9–19 8–20

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.8% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.1%  
42 5% 97%  
43 4% 91%  
44 10% 87%  
45 4% 77%  
46 7% 73% Majority
47 9% 66% Median
48 28% 57%  
49 17% 29%  
50 6% 12% Last Result
51 3% 6%  
52 2% 3%  
53 0.9% 1.3%  
54 0.3% 0.5%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.8% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.1%  
42 6% 97%  
43 4% 91%  
44 10% 87%  
45 4% 77% Last Result
46 7% 72% Majority
47 9% 65% Median
48 28% 56%  
49 17% 28%  
50 6% 12%  
51 3% 6%  
52 2% 3%  
53 0.8% 1.2%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.9% 99.7% Last Result
41 3% 98.8%  
42 7% 95%  
43 6% 89%  
44 16% 82%  
45 9% 67%  
46 8% 58% Majority
47 9% 50% Median
48 23% 41%  
49 11% 18%  
50 4% 7%  
51 1.5% 3%  
52 1.1% 2%  
53 0.6% 0.8%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.8%  
40 1.3% 99.6%  
41 4% 98%  
42 7% 94%  
43 7% 87% Last Result
44 15% 81% Median
45 30% 66%  
46 14% 36% Majority
47 10% 23%  
48 6% 12%  
49 4% 7%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.5% 1.2%  
52 0.3% 0.6%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.6% 99.9% Last Result
39 0.5% 99.4%  
40 3% 98.9%  
41 8% 96%  
42 13% 87%  
43 8% 74%  
44 13% 66% Median
45 30% 53%  
46 8% 24% Majority
47 8% 15%  
48 4% 7%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.9% 1.4%  
51 0.3% 0.5%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 3% 99.7%  
40 4% 96%  
41 5% 92%  
42 10% 87%  
43 23% 77% Median
44 20% 54%  
45 10% 34%  
46 10% 24% Majority
47 6% 14%  
48 5% 7%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.7% 1.0%  
51 0.1% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.9% 99.7%  
39 6% 98.8%  
40 7% 93%  
41 9% 86%  
42 12% 76%  
43 22% 64% Median
44 21% 42%  
45 6% 21%  
46 7% 15% Majority
47 5% 8%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.8% 1.3%  
50 0.4% 0.5%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 1.4% 99.9%  
32 0.6% 98%  
33 8% 98%  
34 3% 90%  
35 8% 86%  
36 9% 78%  
37 9% 70%  
38 9% 61% Median
39 26% 52%  
40 13% 26%  
41 7% 13%  
42 4% 6%  
43 1.2% 2% Last Result
44 0.7% 0.9%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 1.5% 99.9%  
32 0.7% 98%  
33 9% 98%  
34 4% 89%  
35 8% 85%  
36 9% 78%  
37 9% 69%  
38 9% 60% Last Result, Median
39 26% 51%  
40 13% 25%  
41 7% 12%  
42 4% 6%  
43 1.1% 2%  
44 0.6% 0.8%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.8%  
32 2% 98%  
33 9% 96% Last Result
34 7% 87%  
35 12% 80%  
36 13% 68%  
37 10% 55%  
38 7% 45% Median
39 23% 38%  
40 8% 15%  
41 5% 7%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.5% 0.8%  
44 0.3% 0.3%  
45 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100% Last Result
29 0.4% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.5%  
31 4% 98%  
32 7% 94%  
33 12% 86%  
34 27% 74% Median
35 10% 47%  
36 20% 37%  
37 6% 17%  
38 5% 11%  
39 3% 6%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.2% 0.5%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0.7% 99.8%  
30 5% 99.1%  
31 6% 94%  
32 14% 88%  
33 14% 74%  
34 27% 60% Median
35 10% 33%  
36 14% 23%  
37 5% 9%  
38 2% 5%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.4% 0.6%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.5% 99.9%  
9 5% 99.4%  
10 12% 94%  
11 5% 83%  
12 7% 78%  
13 10% 71%  
14 25% 60% Median
15 15% 36%  
16 6% 21%  
17 5% 15%  
18 7% 10%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.6% 0.8%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations