Opinion Poll by Ninamedia for RTV SLO and Dnevnik, 12–14 August 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 32.9% 30.6–35.2% 30.0–35.8% 29.5–36.4% 28.4–37.6%
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 23.0% 21.0–25.1% 20.5–25.7% 20.0–26.3% 19.1–27.3%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 14.9% 13.2–16.7% 12.8–17.2% 12.4–17.7% 11.7–18.6%
Levica 9.3% 9.1% 7.9–10.7% 7.5–11.1% 7.2–11.5% 6.7–12.3%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 5.3% 4.3–6.5% 4.1–6.9% 3.9–7.2% 3.4–7.8%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 4.9% 4.0–6.1% 3.7–6.4% 3.5–6.7% 3.1–7.3%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 3.6% 2.8–4.6% 2.6–5.0% 2.4–5.2% 2.1–5.8%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 2.7% 2.1–3.7% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.2% 1.5–4.7%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 2.3% 1.7–3.2% 1.5–3.5% 1.4–3.7% 1.2–4.2%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 0.7% 0.4–1.3% 0.4–1.5% 0.3–1.7% 0.2–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 32 30–34 30–36 29–36 28–37
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 22 21–24 20–25 20–25 18–27
Socialni demokrati 10 15 13–16 13–16 12–17 12–18
Levica 9 9 8–10 7–11 7–11 6–12
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 4 4–6 4–6 0–7 0–7
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 5 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.3% 100%  
28 0.9% 99.7%  
29 3% 98.8%  
30 17% 96%  
31 13% 79%  
32 30% 66% Median
33 13% 36%  
34 13% 22%  
35 3% 10%  
36 6% 7%  
37 0.5% 0.7%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.6% 100%  
19 2% 99.4%  
20 7% 98%  
21 18% 91%  
22 33% 73% Median
23 8% 41%  
24 26% 33%  
25 5% 7% Last Result
26 1.2% 2%  
27 0.9% 1.0%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0.4% 100%  
12 3% 99.5%  
13 19% 97%  
14 25% 77%  
15 35% 53% Median
16 13% 17%  
17 3% 4%  
18 0.9% 1.0%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 1.1% 99.9%  
7 5% 98.9%  
8 32% 93%  
9 35% 61% Last Result, Median
10 19% 26%  
11 6% 6%  
12 0.7% 0.7%  
13 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 0% 95%  
2 0% 95%  
3 0.1% 95%  
4 51% 95% Median
5 32% 44%  
6 9% 12%  
7 3% 3% Last Result
8 0.1% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 18% 100%  
1 0% 82%  
2 0% 82%  
3 0.8% 82%  
4 26% 81%  
5 48% 55% Last Result, Median
6 6% 7%  
7 1.1% 1.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 62% 100% Median
1 0% 38%  
2 0% 38%  
3 1.2% 38%  
4 36% 37%  
5 0.9% 1.0% Last Result
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Median
1 0% 5%  
2 0% 5%  
3 1.1% 5%  
4 4% 4% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.6%  
2 0% 0.6%  
3 0.1% 0.6%  
4 0.5% 0.6%  
5 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 58 100% 56–61 55–62 55–63 53–64
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 50 57 100% 54–58 54–59 53–60 52–61
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka 38 54 100% 52–58 51–59 51–60 49–60
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 54 100% 53–57 52–58 51–59 50–60
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 54 100% 53–57 52–58 51–59 50–60
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 43 52 99.8% 50–54 49–55 48–55 47–57
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 51 99.6% 49–54 48–55 47–55 46–58
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 51 99.6% 49–54 48–55 47–55 46–58
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 50 99.4% 49–52 47–53 47–54 45–55
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 50 99.4% 49–52 47–53 47–54 45–55
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 47 57% 45–50 43–50 43–51 42–52
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 47 57% 45–50 43–50 43–51 42–52
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 18 0% 16–20 15–21 14–21 13–23

Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100% Last Result
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100% Majority
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.6% 99.7%  
54 1.3% 99.1%  
55 4% 98%  
56 4% 94%  
57 18% 90%  
58 28% 72%  
59 17% 44% Median
60 11% 27%  
61 10% 16%  
62 2% 6%  
63 3% 4%  
64 0.6% 0.8%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100% Last Result
51 0.2% 99.8%  
52 0.8% 99.6%  
53 2% 98.8%  
54 17% 97%  
55 11% 80%  
56 15% 69% Median
57 15% 53%  
58 31% 39%  
59 4% 8%  
60 2% 3%  
61 1.1% 1.3%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100% Majority
47 0% 100%  
48 0.3% 100%  
49 0.8% 99.7%  
50 0.9% 98.8%  
51 4% 98%  
52 15% 94%  
53 21% 79%  
54 16% 59% Median
55 11% 42%  
56 5% 32%  
57 10% 27%  
58 9% 17%  
59 5% 8%  
60 3% 3%  
61 0.2% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 100% Majority
47 0% 99.9%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.6% 99.6%  
51 4% 99.0%  
52 3% 95%  
53 4% 92%  
54 42% 88%  
55 10% 46%  
56 14% 37% Median
57 14% 23%  
58 6% 9%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.9% 1.1%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100% Last Result
46 0.1% 100% Majority
47 0% 99.9%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.6% 99.6%  
51 4% 99.0%  
52 3% 95%  
53 4% 92%  
54 42% 88%  
55 10% 46%  
56 14% 37% Median
57 14% 23%  
58 6% 9%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.9% 1.1%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100% Last Result
44 0% 100%  
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.8% Majority
47 2% 99.7%  
48 2% 98%  
49 3% 96%  
50 19% 94%  
51 16% 75%  
52 17% 59% Median
53 7% 41%  
54 27% 35%  
55 6% 7%  
56 0.9% 2%  
57 0.4% 0.7%  
58 0.1% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 0.4% 99.6% Majority
47 2% 99.1%  
48 2% 97%  
49 32% 95%  
50 7% 63%  
51 10% 55% Median
52 24% 45%  
53 3% 22%  
54 13% 19%  
55 4% 5%  
56 0.2% 1.4%  
57 0.3% 1.1%  
58 0.8% 0.8%  
59 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100% Last Result
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 0.4% 99.6% Majority
47 2% 99.1%  
48 2% 97%  
49 32% 95%  
50 7% 63%  
51 10% 55% Median
52 24% 45%  
53 3% 22%  
54 13% 19%  
55 4% 5%  
56 0.2% 1.4%  
57 0.3% 1.1%  
58 0.8% 0.8%  
59 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0% 99.9%  
43 0% 99.9%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.4% 99.8%  
46 0.4% 99.4% Majority
47 4% 99.0%  
48 3% 95%  
49 5% 92%  
50 44% 87%  
51 19% 43%  
52 16% 25% Median
53 5% 8%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.7% 1.2%  
56 0.2% 0.5%  
57 0.1% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0% 99.9%  
43 0% 99.9%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.4% 99.8%  
46 0.4% 99.4% Majority
47 4% 99.0%  
48 3% 95%  
49 5% 92%  
50 44% 87%  
51 19% 43%  
52 16% 25% Median
53 5% 8%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.7% 1.2%  
56 0.2% 0.5%  
57 0.1% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 1.1% 99.5%  
43 4% 98%  
44 3% 95%  
45 34% 92%  
46 6% 57% Majority
47 27% 52% Median
48 3% 25%  
49 6% 22%  
50 11% 16%  
51 4% 5%  
52 0.6% 1.0%  
53 0.3% 0.4%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 1.1% 99.5%  
43 4% 98%  
44 3% 95%  
45 34% 92%  
46 6% 57% Majority
47 27% 52% Median
48 3% 25%  
49 6% 22%  
50 11% 16%  
51 4% 5%  
52 0.6% 1.0%  
53 0.3% 0.4%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.5% 99.9%  
14 3% 99.3%  
15 4% 96%  
16 10% 92%  
17 8% 82%  
18 25% 74%  
19 13% 49%  
20 28% 36% Median
21 6% 9%  
22 1.3% 2%  
23 0.6% 0.8%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations