Opinion Poll by Mediana for POP TV, 1–25 August 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 28.5% 26.4–30.8% 25.9–31.4% 25.3–31.9% 24.4–33.0%
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 23.7% 21.7–25.8% 21.2–26.4% 20.7–26.9% 19.8–28.0%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 10.5% 9.2–12.1% 8.8–12.6% 8.5–13.0% 7.9–13.8%
Levica 9.3% 7.3% 6.2–8.7% 5.9–9.1% 5.7–9.5% 5.2–10.2%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 6.1% 5.1–7.4% 4.8–7.8% 4.6–8.1% 4.1–8.7%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 4.4% 3.6–5.6% 3.4–5.9% 3.2–6.2% 2.8–6.8%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 3.6% 2.9–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.5–5.2% 2.1–5.8%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 3.5% 2.7–4.5% 2.5–4.8% 2.4–5.1% 2.0–5.6%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 3.0% 2.4–4.0% 2.2–4.3% 2.0–4.6% 1.7–5.1%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 2.8% 2.1–3.7% 2.0–4.0% 1.8–4.3% 1.5–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 29 26–31 25–32 25–32 24–33
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 23 21–26 21–26 20–26 20–28
Socialni demokrati 10 10 9–11 8–12 8–12 7–14
Levica 9 7 6–8 6–9 5–9 5–10
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 6 5–7 5–7 4–7 4–8
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 4 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.5% 99.8%  
25 5% 99.4%  
26 4% 94%  
27 12% 90%  
28 15% 78%  
29 24% 63% Median
30 18% 39%  
31 16% 21%  
32 4% 6%  
33 0.9% 1.2%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.2% 99.9%  
20 3% 99.7%  
21 9% 96%  
22 17% 87%  
23 26% 70% Median
24 10% 44%  
25 12% 34% Last Result
26 20% 22%  
27 1.0% 2%  
28 0.8% 1.0%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.5% 100%  
8 6% 99.5%  
9 15% 94%  
10 34% 79% Last Result, Median
11 37% 45%  
12 7% 8%  
13 1.3% 2%  
14 0.5% 0.6%  
15 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 3% 99.9%  
6 12% 97%  
7 36% 85% Median
8 43% 49%  
9 5% 5% Last Result
10 0.6% 0.7%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 4% 99.8%  
5 30% 96%  
6 44% 66% Median
7 20% 23% Last Result
8 2% 2%  
9 0.5% 0.5%  
10 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 34% 100%  
1 0% 66%  
2 0% 66%  
3 2% 66%  
4 43% 64% Median
5 19% 21% Last Result
6 1.5% 2%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Median
1 0% 26%  
2 0% 26%  
3 2% 26%  
4 19% 24%  
5 4% 5% Last Result
6 0.2% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 69% 100% Median
1 0% 31%  
2 0% 31%  
3 3% 31%  
4 25% 28% Last Result
5 3% 3%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 9%  
2 0% 9%  
3 0.3% 9%  
4 8% 8%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0% 6%  
3 0.1% 6%  
4 5% 5%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 56 100% 51–59 50–59 50–60 49–61
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka 38 52 99.6% 48–56 47–57 46–57 46–58
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 50 49 94% 47–53 45–53 44–54 42–56
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 48 78% 44–52 43–53 43–53 42–54
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 48 80% 45–52 44–53 43–53 42–54
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 45 49% 41–48 41–49 41–49 39–50
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 46 54% 41–48 41–49 41–49 39–50
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 43 43 22% 41–46 39–47 37–48 36–50
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 42 11% 38–46 37–46 37–47 36–48
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 42 14% 39–46 37–46 37–47 36–49
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 40 0.1% 36–42 35–43 35–44 33–44
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 40 0.3% 36–42 35–43 35–44 33–45
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 14 0% 10–16 10–17 10–18 9–19

Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100% Last Result
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100% Majority
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.5% 99.7%  
50 6% 99.2%  
51 6% 94%  
52 5% 88%  
53 6% 83%  
54 9% 76%  
55 12% 67%  
56 23% 55% Median
57 9% 33%  
58 11% 23%  
59 8% 12%  
60 3% 4%  
61 0.7% 1.1%  
62 0.3% 0.4%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 3% 99.6% Majority
47 3% 96%  
48 5% 94%  
49 5% 89%  
50 9% 84%  
51 12% 75%  
52 15% 63% Median
53 8% 49%  
54 13% 40%  
55 6% 27%  
56 14% 21%  
57 6% 8%  
58 1.4% 2%  
59 0.2% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 1.0% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.0%  
44 3% 98.7%  
45 2% 96%  
46 2% 94% Majority
47 18% 92%  
48 12% 73%  
49 19% 61% Median
50 12% 42% Last Result
51 10% 30%  
52 7% 19%  
53 9% 12%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.5% 1.1%  
56 0.5% 0.6%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.7%  
42 2% 99.5%  
43 3% 98%  
44 5% 95%  
45 12% 90%  
46 4% 78% Majority
47 22% 74%  
48 10% 52%  
49 14% 42% Median
50 11% 28%  
51 5% 17%  
52 4% 12%  
53 7% 7%  
54 0.4% 0.5%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.8%  
42 2% 99.6%  
43 2% 98%  
44 5% 96%  
45 11% 91% Last Result
46 3% 80% Majority
47 21% 76%  
48 9% 55%  
49 14% 46% Median
50 12% 32%  
51 7% 20%  
52 4% 13%  
53 7% 8%  
54 0.6% 0.8%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.4% 99.7%  
40 2% 99.3%  
41 9% 98%  
42 8% 89%  
43 10% 81%  
44 10% 71%  
45 12% 61% Median
46 13% 49% Majority
47 21% 36%  
48 9% 15%  
49 5% 6%  
50 1.4% 2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.3% 99.7%  
40 1.4% 99.4% Last Result
41 8% 98%  
42 6% 90%  
43 8% 84%  
44 10% 75%  
45 11% 65% Median
46 15% 54% Majority
47 22% 38%  
48 9% 16%  
49 5% 7%  
50 1.5% 2%  
51 0.2% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.7% 100%  
37 2% 99.2%  
38 2% 97%  
39 2% 96%  
40 2% 94%  
41 16% 92%  
42 12% 76%  
43 15% 64% Last Result, Median
44 20% 49%  
45 8% 30%  
46 13% 22% Majority
47 5% 9%  
48 2% 4%  
49 2% 2%  
50 0.4% 0.6%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.8%  
36 1.0% 99.6%  
37 6% 98.6%  
38 3% 93%  
39 7% 90%  
40 8% 83%  
41 17% 75%  
42 14% 58%  
43 10% 44% Median
44 18% 34%  
45 5% 16%  
46 8% 11% Majority
47 1.0% 3%  
48 1.4% 2%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.8%  
36 0.9% 99.7%  
37 5% 98.8%  
38 3% 94% Last Result
39 7% 91%  
40 7% 84%  
41 17% 77%  
42 12% 60%  
43 10% 48% Median
44 18% 38%  
45 6% 19%  
46 11% 14% Majority
47 1.1% 3%  
48 2% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.5% 99.8%  
34 1.3% 99.3%  
35 6% 98%  
36 6% 92%  
37 13% 86%  
38 11% 73%  
39 9% 62% Median
40 18% 53%  
41 23% 35%  
42 6% 12%  
43 3% 6%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.3% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
34 1.3% 99.4%  
35 6% 98%  
36 6% 92%  
37 10% 87%  
38 10% 77%  
39 9% 66% Median
40 18% 58%  
41 25% 39%  
42 7% 14%  
43 4% 7%  
44 3% 3%  
45 0.4% 0.7%  
46 0.2% 0.3% Majority
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.4% 100%  
9 1.3% 99.6%  
10 9% 98%  
11 18% 90%  
12 7% 72%  
13 12% 65%  
14 13% 53% Median
15 29% 39%  
16 5% 11%  
17 1.1% 5%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.2% 0.5%  
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations