Opinion Poll by Mediana for Delo, 28 August–5 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 30.4% 28.2–32.6% 27.6–33.2% 27.1–33.8% 26.1–34.9%
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 23.5% 21.6–25.6% 21.0–26.2% 20.5–26.7% 19.6–27.7%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 10.3% 9.0–11.9% 8.6–12.3% 8.3–12.7% 7.7–13.5%
Levica 9.3% 10.3% 9.0–11.9% 8.6–12.3% 8.3–12.7% 7.7–13.5%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 8.2% 7.1–9.7% 6.7–10.1% 6.4–10.5% 5.9–11.2%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 4.7% 3.8–5.8% 3.6–6.2% 3.4–6.5% 3.0–7.1%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 3.7% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.6–5.3% 2.2–5.9%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 3.4% 2.7–4.5% 2.5–4.8% 2.3–5.0% 2.0–5.6%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 3.2% 2.5–4.2% 2.3–4.5% 2.1–4.7% 1.8–5.2%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 2.3% 1.8–3.2% 1.6–3.5% 1.5–3.7% 1.2–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 28 27–33 27–34 26–34 25–36
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 23 21–26 19–27 19–27 19–28
Socialni demokrati 10 10 8–12 8–12 8–12 7–14
Levica 9 10 9–11 9–13 8–13 7–13
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 8 7–9 6–9 6–10 6–11
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 4 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–6
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0–3 0–4 0–5 0–5
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0–4

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.8%  
26 2% 99.5%  
27 9% 97%  
28 43% 88% Median
29 6% 45%  
30 16% 39%  
31 9% 24%  
32 4% 15%  
33 5% 11%  
34 5% 6%  
35 0.2% 0.9%  
36 0.7% 0.7%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 5% 99.8%  
20 2% 94%  
21 6% 92%  
22 29% 86%  
23 21% 58% Median
24 13% 37%  
25 14% 24% Last Result
26 0.7% 10%  
27 8% 10%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 1.0% 100%  
8 18% 99.0%  
9 12% 81%  
10 27% 69% Last Result, Median
11 31% 42%  
12 10% 12%  
13 0.7% 2%  
14 0.8% 0.9%  
15 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.5% 100%  
8 4% 99.5%  
9 21% 95% Last Result
10 56% 75% Median
11 10% 19%  
12 4% 10%  
13 5% 5%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.4% 100%  
6 8% 99.6%  
7 19% 91% Last Result
8 26% 72% Median
9 41% 46%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.7% 0.9%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100%  
1 0% 88%  
2 0% 88%  
3 4% 88%  
4 54% 85% Last Result, Median
5 20% 31%  
6 10% 10%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 59% 100% Median
1 0% 41%  
2 0% 41%  
3 0.7% 41%  
4 38% 41%  
5 2% 3% Last Result
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Median
1 0% 17%  
2 0% 17%  
3 7% 17%  
4 6% 9%  
5 3% 4% Last Result
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 73% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 27%  
2 0% 27%  
3 0.2% 27%  
4 26% 27%  
5 0.6% 0.7%  
6 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0.1% 2%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 55 100% 50–58 50–58 49–59 49–60
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka 38 52 99.9% 49–57 49–58 49–58 47–59
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 50 50 98.7% 48–53 47–54 47–55 44–57
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 49 96% 47–53 46–53 45–54 44–55
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 49 95% 47–53 45–53 44–54 44–55
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 47 82% 45–51 45–53 44–53 42–54
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 47 83% 45–51 45–53 44–53 43–54
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 43 42 9% 39–45 39–46 39–47 36–48
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 40 6% 39–45 38–46 37–46 36–47
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 41 6% 39–45 38–46 37–46 36–47
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 39 5% 36–42 36–45 36–46 35–46
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 39 5% 36–42 36–45 36–46 35–46
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 12 0% 9–15 9–15 9–16 8–16

Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100% Last Result
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100% Majority
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 4% 99.6%  
50 18% 95%  
51 7% 77% Median
52 4% 70%  
53 9% 66%  
54 7% 58%  
55 11% 50%  
56 6% 39%  
57 19% 33%  
58 9% 14%  
59 4% 5%  
60 0.7% 1.0%  
61 0% 0.3%  
62 0% 0.2%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.9% Majority
47 0.6% 99.7%  
48 1.3% 99.2%  
49 12% 98%  
50 20% 86%  
51 16% 66% Median
52 5% 50%  
53 13% 45%  
54 10% 33%  
55 4% 22%  
56 4% 18%  
57 8% 15%  
58 5% 6%  
59 0.8% 1.2%  
60 0.4% 0.4%  
61 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.9% 99.9%  
45 0.4% 99.1%  
46 0.5% 98.7% Median, Majority
47 8% 98%  
48 21% 90%  
49 18% 69%  
50 20% 51% Last Result
51 11% 31%  
52 5% 21%  
53 10% 15%  
54 3% 5%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.2% 0.9%  
57 0.6% 0.7%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 2% 99.7%  
45 2% 98% Last Result
46 5% 96% Median, Majority
47 13% 91%  
48 22% 78%  
49 15% 56%  
50 14% 42%  
51 10% 27%  
52 5% 17%  
53 9% 12%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.8% 1.2%  
56 0.1% 0.4%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 3% 99.6%  
45 2% 97%  
46 5% 95% Median, Majority
47 13% 90%  
48 21% 77%  
49 15% 56%  
50 14% 41%  
51 10% 27%  
52 5% 16%  
53 9% 12%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.8% 1.1%  
56 0.1% 0.3%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.4% 99.9%  
43 0.6% 99.5%  
44 4% 98.9%  
45 13% 95%  
46 16% 82% Median, Majority
47 22% 67%  
48 23% 45%  
49 8% 21%  
50 3% 13%  
51 2% 10%  
52 2% 8%  
53 5% 6%  
54 0.9% 1.2%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100% Last Result
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 0.5% 99.6%  
44 3% 99.0%  
45 13% 96%  
46 15% 83% Median, Majority
47 22% 68%  
48 24% 46%  
49 8% 22%  
50 3% 14%  
51 3% 11%  
52 2% 8%  
53 5% 6%  
54 0.9% 1.3%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.5% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.5%  
38 1.0% 99.3% Median
39 17% 98%  
40 19% 81%  
41 9% 62%  
42 29% 53%  
43 3% 25% Last Result
44 7% 21%  
45 5% 15%  
46 6% 9% Majority
47 2% 4%  
48 1.0% 1.4%  
49 0.1% 0.4%  
50 0.3% 0.3%  
51 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0.2% 100%  
36 2% 99.7%  
37 3% 98%  
38 5% 95% Median
39 22% 90%  
40 19% 68%  
41 4% 49%  
42 24% 44%  
43 3% 20%  
44 6% 17%  
45 4% 11%  
46 5% 6% Majority
47 1.1% 1.4%  
48 0% 0.2%  
49 0% 0.2%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 2% 99.8%  
37 2% 98%  
38 5% 96% Last Result, Median
39 22% 91%  
40 19% 69%  
41 5% 50%  
42 24% 45%  
43 4% 21%  
44 7% 17%  
45 4% 11%  
46 5% 6% Majority
47 1.1% 1.4%  
48 0.1% 0.3%  
49 0% 0.2%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.6% 99.7%  
36 12% 99.1%  
37 3% 87%  
38 22% 83% Median
39 23% 61%  
40 16% 38%  
41 6% 23%  
42 8% 16%  
43 2% 8%  
44 0.4% 6%  
45 1.4% 6%  
46 4% 5% Majority
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.6% 99.7%  
36 12% 99.2%  
37 3% 87%  
38 22% 84% Median
39 23% 62%  
40 16% 40%  
41 7% 24%  
42 8% 17%  
43 2% 9%  
44 0.7% 7%  
45 1.4% 6%  
46 4% 5% Majority
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.3% 100%  
8 2% 99.7%  
9 8% 98%  
10 16% 89% Median
11 23% 73%  
12 23% 50%  
13 2% 28%  
14 13% 25%  
15 9% 13%  
16 3% 4%  
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations