Opinion Poll by Mediana for POP TV, 1–22 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 26.4% 24.4–28.6% 23.8–29.2% 23.3–29.8% 22.4–30.9%
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 24.3% 22.4–26.5% 21.8–27.1% 21.3–27.6% 20.4–28.7%
Levica 9.3% 12.3% 10.9–14.0% 10.4–14.5% 10.1–14.9% 9.4–15.8%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 11.5% 10.1–13.1% 9.7–13.6% 9.3–14.0% 8.7–14.9%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 8.7% 7.5–10.2% 7.1–10.6% 6.8–11.0% 6.3–11.7%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 4.8% 3.9–5.9% 3.6–6.3% 3.4–6.6% 3.0–7.2%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 4.1% 3.2–5.2% 3.0–5.5% 2.8–5.8% 2.5–6.4%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 3.6% 2.9–4.7% 2.7–5.0% 2.5–5.3% 2.2–5.8%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 2.7% 2.0–3.6% 1.8–3.9% 1.7–4.1% 1.4–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 26 23–28 23–29 22–29 21–31
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 24 21–26 21–27 20–27 19–28
Levica 9 12 10–13 10–14 9–14 9–15
Socialni demokrati 10 11 9–13 9–13 9–14 8–15
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 8 7–10 6–10 6–11 6–11
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 4 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0 0 0–3 0–4

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.8% 99.9%  
22 3% 99.2%  
23 6% 96%  
24 20% 90%  
25 16% 69%  
26 20% 53% Median
27 13% 33%  
28 12% 19%  
29 5% 7%  
30 1.3% 2%  
31 0.6% 0.8%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.7% 99.9%  
20 3% 99.3%  
21 8% 97%  
22 17% 88%  
23 19% 72%  
24 22% 52% Median
25 18% 31% Last Result
26 8% 13%  
27 4% 5%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.3% 0.4%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 3% 99.8% Last Result
10 14% 96%  
11 24% 82%  
12 26% 58% Median
13 22% 32%  
14 7% 9%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 2% 99.9%  
9 13% 98%  
10 25% 85% Last Result
11 28% 60% Median
12 17% 32%  
13 12% 15%  
14 3% 4%  
15 0.5% 0.5%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 7% 99.7%  
7 20% 93% Last Result
8 37% 73% Median
9 23% 36%  
10 9% 13%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100%  
1 0% 84%  
2 0% 84%  
3 2% 84%  
4 41% 83% Last Result, Median
5 34% 42%  
6 7% 8%  
7 0.6% 0.7%  
8 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 41% 100% Last Result
1 0% 59%  
2 0% 59%  
3 1.0% 59%  
4 46% 58% Median
5 11% 12%  
6 1.1% 1.1%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 68% 100% Median
1 0% 32%  
2 0% 32%  
3 2% 32%  
4 24% 30%  
5 5% 5% Last Result
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0.8% 3%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 51 98% 47–55 47–55 46–56 45–58
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka 38 49 94% 46–53 45–54 45–55 43–56
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 46 60% 43–49 42–51 42–52 40–53
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 45 42% 42–48 41–49 40–50 39–52
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 38 0.3% 35–41 34–42 33–43 32–45
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 36 0% 34–40 33–40 32–41 31–43

Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100% Last Result
44 0.2% 100%  
45 2% 99.8%  
46 2% 98% Majority
47 10% 96%  
48 13% 86%  
49 11% 73%  
50 12% 63% Median
51 12% 50%  
52 14% 38%  
53 10% 24%  
54 4% 15%  
55 7% 11%  
56 2% 4%  
57 0.9% 2%  
58 0.3% 0.7%  
59 0.3% 0.3%  
60 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0.2% 100%  
43 0.4% 99.8%  
44 1.4% 99.4%  
45 4% 98%  
46 6% 94% Majority
47 13% 87%  
48 16% 74%  
49 14% 58%  
50 11% 44% Median
51 13% 33%  
52 10% 20%  
53 4% 10%  
54 2% 6%  
55 3% 4%  
56 0.7% 0.9%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.4%  
42 3% 98%  
43 9% 95%  
44 13% 85%  
45 12% 72% Median
46 21% 60% Majority
47 9% 39%  
48 15% 30%  
49 5% 15%  
50 4% 10%  
51 3% 6%  
52 2% 3%  
53 0.5% 0.8%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.2% 100%  
39 2% 99.8%  
40 2% 98%  
41 5% 96%  
42 9% 91%  
43 11% 82%  
44 18% 71%  
45 11% 53% Median
46 20% 42% Majority
47 6% 22%  
48 10% 15%  
49 2% 6%  
50 1.1% 3%  
51 1.1% 2%  
52 0.9% 1.0%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.5% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.4%  
34 3% 97%  
35 11% 94%  
36 14% 83%  
37 13% 69% Median
38 16% 56%  
39 15% 40%  
40 11% 25%  
41 5% 14%  
42 4% 9%  
43 2% 5%  
44 1.5% 2%  
45 0.3% 0.6%  
46 0.2% 0.3% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.5% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.4%  
33 7% 97%  
34 7% 91%  
35 18% 84%  
36 17% 66%  
37 11% 49% Median
38 16% 37%  
39 10% 21%  
40 8% 12%  
41 2% 4%  
42 1.2% 2%  
43 0.8% 1.1%  
44 0.1% 0.3%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations