Opinion Poll by Ninamedia for RTV SLO, 15–17 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 30.9% 28.7–33.2% 28.1–33.8% 27.5–34.4% 26.5–35.5%
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 22.6% 20.6–24.7% 20.1–25.3% 19.6–25.8% 18.7–26.9%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 16.0% 14.3–17.9% 13.9–18.4% 13.5–18.9% 12.7–19.8%
Levica 9.3% 9.6% 8.3–11.1% 7.9–11.6% 7.6–12.0% 7.0–12.8%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 8.0% 6.8–9.5% 6.5–9.9% 6.2–10.3% 5.7–11.0%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 5.1% 4.2–6.4% 3.9–6.7% 3.7–7.0% 3.3–7.7%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 2.9% 2.2–3.8% 2.0–4.1% 1.9–4.4% 1.6–4.9%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 2.0% 1.5–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.2–3.3% 1.0–3.8%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 1.6% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.9–2.8% 0.7–3.2%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 1.4% 1.0–2.2% 0.9–2.4% 0.8–2.6% 0.6–3.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 30 28–31 27–32 26–33 25–34
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 22 20–23 20–23 19–24 18–27
Socialni demokrati 10 15 13–17 13–17 13–18 12–19
Levica 9 9 8–11 8–11 7–11 6–12
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 7 6–9 6–9 6–10 5–10
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 4 4–6 4–6 0–6 0–7
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0 0

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 2% 99.9%  
26 2% 98%  
27 4% 96%  
28 14% 92%  
29 23% 78%  
30 28% 55% Median
31 20% 28%  
32 4% 8%  
33 3% 4%  
34 0.9% 1.2%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.4% 100%  
18 2% 99.6%  
19 2% 98%  
20 37% 96%  
21 7% 59%  
22 38% 52% Median
23 10% 14%  
24 2% 5%  
25 1.5% 2% Last Result
26 0.3% 0.9%  
27 0.6% 0.6%  
28 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0.2% 100%  
12 1.4% 99.8%  
13 14% 98%  
14 15% 84%  
15 32% 70% Median
16 25% 37%  
17 9% 12%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0.8% 0.8%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.9% 100%  
7 2% 99.1%  
8 11% 97%  
9 39% 87% Last Result, Median
10 9% 47%  
11 37% 38%  
12 1.2% 1.5%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 2% 99.9%  
6 46% 98%  
7 16% 53% Last Result, Median
8 22% 37%  
9 11% 15%  
10 4% 4%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0.5% 96%  
4 47% 96% Median
5 22% 49% Last Result
6 25% 27%  
7 1.4% 2%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 19%  
2 0% 19%  
3 9% 19%  
4 10% 10%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Median
1 0% 0.5%  
2 0% 0.5%  
3 0.3% 0.5%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 56 100% 54–59 53–59 53–60 51–61
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek 50 56 100% 54–59 53–59 53–60 51–61
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 56 100% 54–59 53–59 53–60 51–61
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 56 100% 53–57 53–58 52–59 51–60
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 51 100% 49–54 49–55 49–56 47–59
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 51 100% 49–54 49–55 48–56 47–59
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka 38 51 99.9% 49–53 48–54 48–55 47–56
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 49 96% 46–53 46–53 45–53 43–54
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek 43 49 96% 46–53 46–53 45–53 43–54
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 49 96% 46–53 46–53 45–53 43–54
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 45 33% 42–47 42–47 41–48 39–51
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 45 33% 42–47 42–48 41–48 39–51
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 19 0% 17–22 17–22 16–23 14–24

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100% Majority
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 0.3% 99.5%  
52 1.1% 99.2%  
53 3% 98%  
54 13% 95%  
55 30% 82%  
56 11% 52% Median
57 7% 41%  
58 7% 34%  
59 23% 27%  
60 4% 5%  
61 0.9% 1.2%  
62 0.3% 0.3%  
63 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
51 0.3% 99.5%  
52 1.1% 99.2%  
53 3% 98%  
54 12% 95%  
55 30% 82%  
56 11% 53% Median
57 7% 41%  
58 7% 34%  
59 23% 28%  
60 4% 5%  
61 0.9% 1.3%  
62 0.3% 0.3%  
63 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100% Last Result
46 0% 100% Majority
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 0.3% 99.5%  
52 1.1% 99.2%  
53 3% 98%  
54 12% 95%  
55 30% 82%  
56 11% 53% Median
57 7% 41%  
58 7% 34%  
59 23% 28%  
60 4% 5%  
61 0.9% 1.2%  
62 0.3% 0.3%  
63 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100% Last Result
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100% Majority
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 1.0% 99.8%  
52 2% 98.7%  
53 14% 96%  
54 11% 82%  
55 11% 71%  
56 31% 60% Median
57 22% 29%  
58 3% 7%  
59 2% 4%  
60 2% 2%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100% Last Result
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 100% Majority
47 1.0% 99.9%  
48 1.4% 98.9%  
49 8% 98%  
50 15% 89%  
51 27% 74%  
52 10% 47% Median
53 21% 37%  
54 8% 16%  
55 4% 8%  
56 3% 4%  
57 0.7% 2%  
58 0.3% 0.9%  
59 0.5% 0.6%  
60 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 100% Majority
47 1.0% 99.9%  
48 1.4% 98.9%  
49 9% 97%  
50 15% 89%  
51 27% 74%  
52 10% 47% Median
53 21% 36%  
54 7% 15%  
55 4% 8%  
56 3% 4%  
57 0.6% 2%  
58 0.3% 0.9%  
59 0.5% 0.6%  
60 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.4% 99.9% Majority
47 2% 99.5%  
48 7% 98%  
49 17% 91%  
50 10% 75%  
51 27% 64%  
52 26% 37% Median
53 4% 11%  
54 3% 7%  
55 3% 4%  
56 0.9% 1.1%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0.6% 99.9%  
44 0.4% 99.4%  
45 3% 99.0%  
46 14% 96% Majority
47 3% 82%  
48 12% 80%  
49 33% 67% Median
50 4% 34%  
51 9% 30%  
52 3% 21%  
53 17% 18%  
54 0.9% 1.3%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.6% 99.9% Last Result
44 0.3% 99.4%  
45 3% 99.0%  
46 14% 96% Majority
47 3% 83%  
48 12% 80%  
49 33% 68% Median
50 4% 34%  
51 9% 30%  
52 3% 21%  
53 17% 18%  
54 0.9% 1.3%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0.6% 99.9%  
44 0.3% 99.4%  
45 3% 99.0%  
46 14% 96% Majority
47 3% 83%  
48 12% 80%  
49 33% 68% Median
50 4% 34%  
51 9% 30%  
52 3% 21%  
53 17% 18%  
54 0.9% 1.3%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.5% 100%  
40 2% 99.4%  
41 2% 98%  
42 17% 96%  
43 9% 78%  
44 7% 69%  
45 30% 62% Median
46 10% 33% Majority
47 17% 22%  
48 3% 5%  
49 0.7% 2%  
50 0.8% 1.4%  
51 0.6% 0.6%  
52 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.5% 100%  
40 2% 99.4%  
41 1.5% 98%  
42 17% 96%  
43 9% 79%  
44 7% 70%  
45 30% 62% Median
46 10% 33% Majority
47 17% 22%  
48 3% 5%  
49 0.8% 2%  
50 0.8% 1.5%  
51 0.6% 0.6%  
52 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100%  
14 1.4% 99.9%  
15 0.6% 98.5%  
16 0.5% 98%  
17 13% 97%  
18 7% 85%  
19 30% 77% Median
20 12% 47%  
21 10% 35%  
22 21% 25%  
23 3% 4%  
24 0.8% 1.1%  
25 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
26 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations