Opinion Poll by Mediana for Delo, 28 October–7 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 22.9% 21.0–24.9% 20.4–25.5% 20.0–26.0% 19.1–27.1%
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 22.6% 20.7–24.7% 20.2–25.2% 19.7–25.8% 18.8–26.8%
Levica 9.3% 16.6% 14.9–18.5% 14.5–19.0% 14.1–19.5% 13.3–20.4%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 8.8% 7.6–10.3% 7.3–10.7% 7.0–11.1% 6.4–11.9%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 8.8% 7.6–10.3% 7.3–10.7% 7.0–11.1% 6.4–11.9%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 4.8% 3.9–5.9% 3.6–6.3% 3.4–6.6% 3.1–7.2%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 3.4% 2.7–4.4% 2.5–4.7% 2.3–5.0% 2.0–5.5%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 3.3% 2.6–4.3% 2.4–4.6% 2.2–4.8% 1.9–5.3%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 2.9% 2.2–3.8% 2.0–4.1% 1.9–4.3% 1.6–4.8%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 1.5% 1.1–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.8–2.7% 0.7–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 23 21–25 20–26 19–26 19–28
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 23 20–24 20–25 19–26 19–27
Levica 9 16 15–18 14–18 14–19 13–20
Socialni demokrati 10 8 7–10 7–10 6–11 6–11
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 8 7–10 7–10 6–11 6–12
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 5 3–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.3% 99.9%  
19 3% 99.5%  
20 6% 97%  
21 9% 90%  
22 27% 81%  
23 10% 54% Median
24 33% 44%  
25 6% 11%  
26 4% 6%  
27 1.5% 2%  
28 0.4% 0.5%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.3% 99.9%  
19 2% 99.6%  
20 9% 97%  
21 9% 89%  
22 17% 79%  
23 32% 62% Median
24 21% 30%  
25 5% 9% Last Result
26 3% 4%  
27 0.5% 0.6%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.2% 100%  
13 2% 99.8%  
14 7% 98%  
15 9% 91%  
16 42% 82% Median
17 27% 41%  
18 10% 14%  
19 3% 4%  
20 0.9% 1.4%  
21 0.3% 0.4%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 3% 99.9%  
7 10% 97%  
8 46% 87% Median
9 22% 41%  
10 16% 20% Last Result
11 3% 4%  
12 0.4% 0.5%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 3% 99.9%  
7 10% 97% Last Result
8 44% 87% Median
9 24% 43%  
10 15% 19%  
11 3% 4%  
12 1.0% 1.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 0% 90%  
2 0% 90%  
3 0.7% 90%  
4 32% 90% Last Result
5 50% 58% Median
6 6% 7%  
7 0.6% 0.7%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Median
1 0% 17%  
2 0% 17%  
3 2% 17%  
4 14% 16%  
5 1.3% 1.4% Last Result
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Median
1 0% 11%  
2 0% 11%  
3 0.5% 11%  
4 9% 11%  
5 1.5% 2% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Median
1 0% 5%  
2 0% 5%  
3 0.6% 5%  
4 4% 4%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 46 64% 43–49 42–50 41–50 40–52
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka 38 46 57% 42–48 41–50 41–50 39–52
Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 50 41 6% 38–45 38–46 38–47 36–49
Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 40 3% 38–43 38–45 37–46 36–48
Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 40 3% 38–43 38–45 36–46 35–48
Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati 30 40 2% 38–43 36–43 36–45 34–48
Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 40 2% 38–43 37–44 36–45 35–48
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 43 32 0% 30–36 29–38 29–39 28–41
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 32 0% 30–34 29–36 28–37 27–38
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 32 0% 30–35 29–36 28–37 27–39
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 32 0% 29–34 28–35 28–36 26–38
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 32 0% 29–34 28–34 28–35 26–38
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 8 0% 8–12 7–13 7–14 6–16

Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.6% 99.7%  
41 2% 99.1%  
42 4% 97%  
43 4% 93% Last Result
44 17% 89%  
45 7% 71%  
46 17% 64% Median, Majority
47 26% 47%  
48 9% 21%  
49 5% 12%  
50 5% 7%  
51 0.7% 2%  
52 0.9% 1.2%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100% Last Result
39 0.4% 99.8%  
40 2% 99.4%  
41 4% 98%  
42 6% 94%  
43 5% 88%  
44 18% 83%  
45 8% 65%  
46 16% 57% Median, Majority
47 25% 41%  
48 7% 16%  
49 3% 9%  
50 4% 5%  
51 0.3% 1.0%  
52 0.6% 0.7%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.7% 99.8%  
37 0.8% 99.1%  
38 14% 98%  
39 5% 84% Median
40 28% 79%  
41 12% 51%  
42 10% 38%  
43 8% 28%  
44 7% 20%  
45 6% 12%  
46 2% 6% Majority
47 2% 4%  
48 0.8% 2%  
49 0.3% 0.7%  
50 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 1.5% 99.5%  
37 2% 98%  
38 16% 96%  
39 7% 80% Median
40 33% 73%  
41 14% 41%  
42 9% 26%  
43 8% 17%  
44 3% 9%  
45 3% 6% Last Result
46 2% 3% Majority
47 0.9% 2%  
48 0.7% 1.0%  
49 0.1% 0.3%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.3% 100%  
35 0.5% 99.6% Last Result
36 2% 99.1%  
37 2% 97%  
38 17% 95%  
39 8% 78% Median
40 33% 70%  
41 14% 38%  
42 9% 24%  
43 7% 15%  
44 3% 8%  
45 3% 6%  
46 2% 3% Majority
47 0.8% 1.4%  
48 0.6% 0.6%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.6% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.3%  
36 4% 98%  
37 4% 94%  
38 19% 90%  
39 8% 72% Median
40 32% 64%  
41 13% 31%  
42 7% 18%  
43 6% 11%  
44 1.4% 5%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.8% 2% Majority
47 0.3% 0.8%  
48 0.5% 0.5%  
49 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 1.4% 99.7%  
36 3% 98%  
37 3% 95%  
38 18% 92%  
39 7% 74% Median
40 33% 67% Last Result
41 14% 34%  
42 7% 20%  
43 7% 13%  
44 1.4% 6%  
45 2% 4%  
46 1.2% 2% Majority
47 0.3% 1.0%  
48 0.6% 0.7%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.8%  
28 1.3% 99.7%  
29 4% 98%  
30 13% 95%  
31 14% 81% Median
32 28% 67%  
33 7% 39%  
34 9% 33%  
35 6% 23%  
36 9% 17%  
37 3% 8%  
38 3% 5%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.4% 1.0%  
41 0.5% 0.6%  
42 0% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
44 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 0.8% 99.6%  
28 3% 98.8% Last Result
29 5% 96%  
30 16% 91%  
31 17% 75% Median
32 33% 58%  
33 6% 25%  
34 9% 19%  
35 4% 10%  
36 2% 6%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.9% 1.2%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.6% 99.7%  
28 2% 99.1%  
29 5% 97%  
30 14% 92%  
31 16% 77% Median
32 33% 62%  
33 7% 28%  
34 10% 21%  
35 5% 12%  
36 3% 6%  
37 2% 4%  
38 1.1% 2% Last Result
39 0.3% 0.7%  
40 0.1% 0.4%  
41 0.3% 0.3%  
42 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.8%  
27 0.9% 99.4%  
28 5% 98%  
29 6% 93%  
30 16% 87%  
31 17% 71% Median
32 32% 54%  
33 7% 22% Last Result
34 8% 15%  
35 3% 7%  
36 1.3% 3%  
37 0.9% 2%  
38 0.8% 1.0%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0.3% 100%  
26 0.5% 99.7%  
27 1.4% 99.3%  
28 6% 98%  
29 6% 92%  
30 17% 86%  
31 18% 69% Median
32 32% 51%  
33 7% 19%  
34 8% 12%  
35 3% 5%  
36 1.0% 2%  
37 0.5% 1.2%  
38 0.7% 0.8%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 2% 100%  
7 7% 98%  
8 42% 92% Median
9 17% 50%  
10 15% 33%  
11 6% 18%  
12 4% 12%  
13 4% 7%  
14 3% 4%  
15 0.5% 1.0%  
16 0.4% 0.5%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations