Opinion Poll by Mediana for POP TV, 1–26 November 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 24.9% | 25.1% | 23.2–27.3% | 22.6–27.9% | 22.1–28.4% | 21.2–29.5% |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 12.6% | 22.5% | 20.7–24.6% | 20.1–25.2% | 19.7–25.7% | 18.8–26.7% |
| Socialni demokrati | 9.9% | 15.4% | 13.8–17.3% | 13.4–17.8% | 13.0–18.2% | 12.3–19.1% |
| Levica | 9.3% | 14.3% | 12.8–16.1% | 12.4–16.6% | 12.0–17.1% | 11.3–18.0% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.9–7.1% | 4.6–7.5% | 4.4–7.8% | 4.0–8.5% |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4.2% | 5.9% | 4.9–7.1% | 4.6–7.5% | 4.4–7.8% | 4.0–8.5% |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.9–3.4% | 1.7–3.6% | 1.6–3.9% | 1.3–4.3% |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5.1% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.9% | 1.4–3.1% | 1.2–3.4% | 1.0–3.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 25 | 23 | 22–25 | 21–26 | 21–27 | 20–27 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 13 | 21 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 18–24 | 17–25 |
| Socialni demokrati | 10 | 14 | 13–16 | 12–16 | 12–17 | 11–18 |
| Levica | 9 | 13 | 12–15 | 11–15 | 11–16 | 10–17 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 0–8 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 0–8 |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 21 | 8% | 98% | |
| 22 | 16% | 90% | |
| 23 | 29% | 74% | Median |
| 24 | 24% | 45% | |
| 25 | 12% | 20% | Last Result |
| 26 | 6% | 8% | |
| 27 | 2% | 3% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 18 | 4% | 99.4% | |
| 19 | 10% | 96% | |
| 20 | 13% | 85% | |
| 21 | 33% | 72% | Median |
| 22 | 23% | 39% | |
| 23 | 12% | 16% | |
| 24 | 2% | 4% | |
| 25 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 6% | 98.9% | |
| 13 | 21% | 93% | |
| 14 | 37% | 72% | Median |
| 15 | 21% | 35% | |
| 16 | 9% | 14% | |
| 17 | 4% | 5% | |
| 18 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Levica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 10 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 7% | 99.0% | |
| 12 | 21% | 92% | |
| 13 | 27% | 71% | Median |
| 14 | 28% | 44% | |
| 15 | 13% | 16% | |
| 16 | 3% | 4% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 4 | 17% | 98% | |
| 5 | 49% | 81% | Median |
| 6 | 25% | 32% | |
| 7 | 6% | 7% | Last Result |
| 8 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 4 | 18% | 98.7% | Last Result |
| 5 | 47% | 81% | Median |
| 6 | 27% | 34% | |
| 7 | 6% | 7% | |
| 8 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.6% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Stranka Alenke Bratušek
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 43 | 44 | 32% | 42–47 | 42–47 | 41–48 | 40–49 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca | 38 | 44 | 31% | 42–47 | 42–47 | 41–48 | 40–49 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 35 | 40 | 0.3% | 38–43 | 38–43 | 37–44 | 36–45 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 30 | 40 | 0.2% | 38–43 | 38–43 | 37–44 | 36–45 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 28 | 35 | 0% | 33–38 | 33–38 | 32–39 | 31–40 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati | 23 | 35 | 0% | 33–38 | 33–38 | 32–39 | 31–40 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 41 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 42 | 7% | 96% | |
| 43 | 17% | 90% | Last Result |
| 44 | 25% | 73% | Median |
| 45 | 16% | 47% | |
| 46 | 17% | 32% | Majority |
| 47 | 11% | 15% | |
| 48 | 2% | 4% | |
| 49 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 50 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 40 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 41 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 42 | 7% | 96% | |
| 43 | 17% | 89% | |
| 44 | 25% | 72% | Median |
| 45 | 15% | 47% | |
| 46 | 17% | 31% | Majority |
| 47 | 11% | 14% | |
| 48 | 2% | 4% | |
| 49 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 36 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 37 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 38 | 8% | 96% | |
| 39 | 15% | 88% | |
| 40 | 25% | 73% | Median |
| 41 | 19% | 48% | |
| 42 | 15% | 29% | |
| 43 | 10% | 14% | |
| 44 | 3% | 4% | |
| 45 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 47 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 37 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 38 | 8% | 96% | |
| 39 | 15% | 88% | |
| 40 | 25% | 72% | Median |
| 41 | 19% | 47% | |
| 42 | 15% | 28% | |
| 43 | 9% | 14% | |
| 44 | 3% | 4% | |
| 45 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 32 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 33 | 8% | 95% | |
| 34 | 18% | 87% | |
| 35 | 24% | 69% | Median |
| 36 | 21% | 45% | |
| 37 | 13% | 24% | |
| 38 | 8% | 11% | |
| 39 | 2% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 31 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 32 | 4% | 98.8% | |
| 33 | 8% | 95% | |
| 34 | 19% | 87% | |
| 35 | 24% | 68% | Median |
| 36 | 21% | 44% | |
| 37 | 13% | 23% | |
| 38 | 8% | 11% | |
| 39 | 2% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Mediana
- Commissioner(s): POP TV
- Fieldwork period: 1–26 November 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 732
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.23%