Opinion Poll by Mediana for POP TV, 1–26 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 25.1% 23.2–27.3% 22.6–27.9% 22.1–28.4% 21.2–29.5%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 22.5% 20.7–24.6% 20.1–25.2% 19.7–25.7% 18.8–26.7%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 15.4% 13.8–17.3% 13.4–17.8% 13.0–18.2% 12.3–19.1%
Levica 9.3% 14.3% 12.8–16.1% 12.4–16.6% 12.0–17.1% 11.3–18.0%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 5.9% 4.9–7.1% 4.6–7.5% 4.4–7.8% 4.0–8.5%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 5.9% 4.9–7.1% 4.6–7.5% 4.4–7.8% 4.0–8.5%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 2.5% 1.9–3.4% 1.7–3.6% 1.6–3.9% 1.3–4.3%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 2.0% 1.5–2.9% 1.4–3.1% 1.2–3.4% 1.0–3.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 23 22–25 21–26 21–27 20–27
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 21 19–23 19–23 18–24 17–25
Socialni demokrati 10 14 13–16 12–16 12–17 11–18
Levica 9 13 12–15 11–15 11–16 10–17
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 5 4–6 4–7 4–7 0–8
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 5 4–6 4–7 4–7 0–8
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0 0 0 0–4
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.4% 100%  
20 2% 99.6%  
21 8% 98%  
22 16% 90%  
23 29% 74% Median
24 24% 45%  
25 12% 20% Last Result
26 6% 8%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.4% 0.5%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.6% 100%  
18 4% 99.4%  
19 10% 96%  
20 13% 85%  
21 33% 72% Median
22 23% 39%  
23 12% 16%  
24 2% 4%  
25 1.4% 2%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100% Last Result
11 1.0% 99.9%  
12 6% 98.9%  
13 21% 93%  
14 37% 72% Median
15 21% 35%  
16 9% 14%  
17 4% 5%  
18 0.8% 0.9%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100% Last Result
10 0.9% 99.9%  
11 7% 99.0%  
12 21% 92%  
13 27% 71% Median
14 28% 44%  
15 13% 16%  
16 3% 4%  
17 0.6% 0.6%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100%  
1 0% 99.1%  
2 0% 99.1%  
3 0.8% 99.1%  
4 17% 98%  
5 49% 81% Median
6 25% 32%  
7 6% 7% Last Result
8 0.5% 0.5%  
9 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 0% 99.4%  
2 0% 99.4%  
3 0.6% 99.4%  
4 18% 98.7% Last Result
5 47% 81% Median
6 27% 34%  
7 6% 7%  
8 0.5% 0.6%  
9 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.6% 100% Median
1 0% 1.4%  
2 0% 1.4%  
3 0.8% 1.4%  
4 0.6% 0.6%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0.1% 0.2%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 44 32% 42–47 42–47 41–48 40–49
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 44 31% 42–47 42–47 41–48 40–49
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 40 0.3% 38–43 38–43 37–44 36–45
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 40 0.2% 38–43 38–43 37–44 36–45
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 35 0% 33–38 33–38 32–39 31–40
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 35 0% 33–38 33–38 32–39 31–40

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.9% 99.8%  
41 3% 98.9%  
42 7% 96%  
43 17% 90% Last Result
44 25% 73% Median
45 16% 47%  
46 17% 32% Majority
47 11% 15%  
48 2% 4%  
49 1.2% 2%  
50 0.4% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0.2% 100%  
40 1.0% 99.8%  
41 3% 98.8%  
42 7% 96%  
43 17% 89%  
44 25% 72% Median
45 15% 47%  
46 17% 31% Majority
47 11% 14%  
48 2% 4%  
49 1.1% 2%  
50 0.3% 0.4%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
36 0.8% 99.6%  
37 3% 98.9%  
38 8% 96%  
39 15% 88%  
40 25% 73% Median
41 19% 48%  
42 15% 29%  
43 10% 14%  
44 3% 4%  
45 1.1% 1.4%  
46 0.2% 0.3% Majority
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.9%  
36 0.9% 99.6%  
37 3% 98.7%  
38 8% 96%  
39 15% 88%  
40 25% 72% Median
41 19% 47%  
42 15% 28%  
43 9% 14%  
44 3% 4%  
45 1.0% 1.3%  
46 0.2% 0.2% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.9% 99.8%  
32 3% 98.9%  
33 8% 95%  
34 18% 87%  
35 24% 69% Median
36 21% 45%  
37 13% 24%  
38 8% 11%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.9% 1.2%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.2% 100%  
31 1.0% 99.8%  
32 4% 98.8%  
33 8% 95%  
34 19% 87%  
35 24% 68% Median
36 21% 44%  
37 13% 23%  
38 8% 11%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.8% 1.0%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations