Opinion Poll by Ninamedia for RTV SLO, 10–12 December 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 29.6% 27.4–31.9% 26.8–32.5% 26.3–33.1% 25.3–34.2%
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 24.3% 22.3–26.5% 21.7–27.1% 21.2–27.6% 20.3–28.7%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 14.1% 12.6–16.0% 12.1–16.5% 11.8–16.9% 11.0–17.8%
Levica 9.3% 9.6% 8.3–11.1% 7.9–11.6% 7.6–12.0% 7.0–12.8%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 7.7% 6.6–9.2% 6.2–9.6% 6.0–9.9% 5.4–10.7%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 4.6% 3.7–5.8% 3.5–6.1% 3.3–6.4% 2.9–7.0%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 4.1% 3.3–5.3% 3.1–5.6% 2.9–5.9% 2.5–6.5%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 3.6% 2.8–4.6% 2.6–5.0% 2.4–5.2% 2.1–5.8%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 1.0% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.9% 0.5–2.1% 0.4–2.4%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 0.3% 0.2–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.0% 0.0–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 28 25–30 25–31 25–32 24–34
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 23 21–25 21–26 20–27 19–28
Socialni demokrati 10 13 11–15 11–16 11–16 10–17
Levica 9 9 8–10 7–11 7–11 6–12
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 7 6–8 6–9 5–9 5–10
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 4 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 4 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.4% 100%  
24 1.2% 99.5%  
25 22% 98%  
26 8% 76%  
27 15% 68%  
28 25% 53% Median
29 11% 28%  
30 8% 17%  
31 7% 10%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.8% 1.3%  
34 0.4% 0.5%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.3% 100%  
19 1.2% 99.7%  
20 2% 98%  
21 13% 96%  
22 10% 83%  
23 31% 73% Median
24 23% 41%  
25 10% 18% Last Result
26 4% 8%  
27 3% 4%  
28 1.0% 1.5%  
29 0.4% 0.5%  
30 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.8% 99.9% Last Result
11 18% 99.1%  
12 30% 81%  
13 24% 51% Median
14 13% 27%  
15 9% 14%  
16 4% 5%  
17 1.2% 1.4%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.7% 100%  
7 9% 99.3%  
8 22% 91%  
9 37% 68% Last Result, Median
10 23% 31%  
11 7% 8%  
12 0.7% 0.9%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 3% 99.9%  
6 22% 97%  
7 46% 75% Last Result, Median
8 21% 29%  
9 7% 8%  
10 1.2% 1.3%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 21% 100%  
1 0% 79%  
2 0% 79%  
3 3% 79%  
4 46% 77% Median
5 29% 31% Last Result
6 1.5% 2%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 22% 100% Last Result
1 0% 78%  
2 0% 78%  
3 3% 78%  
4 62% 75% Median
5 11% 12%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 55% 100% Median
1 0% 45%  
2 0% 45%  
3 20% 45%  
4 23% 25% Last Result
5 2% 2%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 54 100% 51–57 51–59 50–59 48–60
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 51 99.8% 48–55 48–56 48–57 46–59
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 50 51 99.8% 48–55 48–56 48–57 46–59
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 51 99.8% 48–55 48–56 48–57 46–59
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka 38 51 99.4% 48–54 48–55 47–56 45–59
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 47 77% 44–51 44–52 44–53 43–55
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 47 77% 44–51 44–52 44–53 43–55
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 43 21% 41–48 41–49 41–50 39–51
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 43 43 21% 41–48 41–49 41–50 39–51
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 43 21% 41–48 41–49 41–50 39–51
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 40 3% 37–44 37–45 37–46 36–48
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 40 3% 37–44 37–45 37–46 36–48
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 16 0% 13–19 13–20 12–21 12–22

Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100% Last Result
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100% Majority
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.5% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.4%  
50 4% 99.0%  
51 8% 95%  
52 8% 88%  
53 26% 80%  
54 9% 54%  
55 11% 45% Median
56 18% 34%  
57 7% 16%  
58 3% 8%  
59 4% 5%  
60 1.1% 1.4%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0.7% 99.8% Majority
47 1.3% 99.1%  
48 20% 98%  
49 11% 78%  
50 11% 67%  
51 25% 56%  
52 8% 31% Median
53 8% 23%  
54 5% 15%  
55 3% 11%  
56 3% 8%  
57 3% 5%  
58 1.2% 2%  
59 0.9% 1.0%  
60 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0.7% 99.8% Majority
47 1.3% 99.1%  
48 20% 98%  
49 11% 78%  
50 11% 67% Last Result
51 25% 56%  
52 8% 31% Median
53 8% 23%  
54 5% 15%  
55 3% 11%  
56 3% 8%  
57 3% 5%  
58 1.2% 2%  
59 0.9% 1.0%  
60 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100% Last Result
46 0.7% 99.8% Majority
47 1.3% 99.1%  
48 20% 98%  
49 11% 78%  
50 11% 67%  
51 25% 56%  
52 8% 31% Median
53 8% 23%  
54 5% 15%  
55 3% 11%  
56 3% 8%  
57 3% 5%  
58 1.2% 2%  
59 0.9% 1.0%  
60 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.5% 99.9%  
46 2% 99.4% Majority
47 1.3% 98%  
48 8% 97%  
49 25% 88%  
50 9% 63%  
51 25% 54% Median
52 8% 29%  
53 7% 20%  
54 4% 13%  
55 6% 9%  
56 1.0% 3%  
57 0.8% 2%  
58 0.6% 1.5%  
59 0.8% 0.9%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.5% 99.8%  
44 18% 99.3%  
45 4% 81%  
46 18% 77% Majority
47 16% 59%  
48 9% 43% Median
49 12% 33%  
50 7% 22%  
51 4% 14%  
52 6% 10%  
53 2% 4%  
54 1.4% 2%  
55 0.4% 0.9%  
56 0.1% 0.4%  
57 0.2% 0.4%  
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100% Last Result
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.5% 99.8%  
44 18% 99.3%  
45 4% 81%  
46 18% 77% Majority
47 16% 59%  
48 9% 43% Median
49 12% 33%  
50 7% 22%  
51 4% 14%  
52 6% 10%  
53 2% 4%  
54 1.4% 2%  
55 0.4% 0.9%  
56 0.1% 0.4%  
57 0.2% 0.4%  
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.7% 99.9%  
40 0.8% 99.2%  
41 20% 98%  
42 9% 78%  
43 19% 69%  
44 22% 50%  
45 7% 28% Median
46 6% 21% Majority
47 4% 15%  
48 4% 11%  
49 3% 7%  
50 2% 4%  
51 1.1% 1.5%  
52 0.3% 0.3%  
53 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.7% 99.9%  
40 0.8% 99.2%  
41 20% 98%  
42 9% 78%  
43 19% 69% Last Result
44 22% 50%  
45 7% 28% Median
46 6% 21% Majority
47 4% 15%  
48 4% 11%  
49 3% 7%  
50 2% 4%  
51 1.1% 1.5%  
52 0.3% 0.3%  
53 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100% Last Result
39 0.7% 99.9%  
40 0.8% 99.2%  
41 20% 98%  
42 9% 78%  
43 19% 69%  
44 22% 50%  
45 7% 28% Median
46 6% 21% Majority
47 4% 15%  
48 4% 11%  
49 3% 7%  
50 2% 4%  
51 1.1% 1.5%  
52 0.3% 0.3%  
53 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.6% 99.9%  
37 16% 99.3%  
38 7% 84%  
39 26% 77%  
40 6% 51%  
41 13% 45% Median
42 12% 32%  
43 9% 21%  
44 6% 12%  
45 3% 7%  
46 2% 3% Majority
47 0.5% 1.4%  
48 0.5% 0.9%  
49 0.1% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.3%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.6% 99.9%  
37 16% 99.3%  
38 7% 84%  
39 26% 77%  
40 6% 51%  
41 13% 45% Median
42 12% 32%  
43 9% 21%  
44 6% 12%  
45 3% 7%  
46 2% 3% Majority
47 0.5% 1.4%  
48 0.5% 0.9%  
49 0.1% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.3%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 4% 99.6%  
13 6% 95%  
14 6% 89%  
15 7% 83%  
16 39% 76%  
17 13% 37% Median
18 11% 24%  
19 5% 12%  
20 4% 8%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.5% 0.6%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations