Opinion Poll by Mediana for Delo, 3–9 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 22.3% 20.4–24.4% 19.8–24.9% 19.4–25.5% 18.5–26.5%
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 21.2% 19.3–23.2% 18.8–23.8% 18.3–24.3% 17.5–25.3%
Levica 9.3% 11.2% 9.8–12.8% 9.4–13.3% 9.1–13.7% 8.5–14.5%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 10.9% 9.6–12.6% 9.2–13.0% 8.9–13.4% 8.2–14.2%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 9.5% 8.3–11.1% 7.9–11.5% 7.6–11.9% 7.0–12.7%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 5.3% 4.3–6.5% 4.1–6.8% 3.9–7.1% 3.4–7.8%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 4.8% 3.9–6.0% 3.7–6.4% 3.5–6.7% 3.1–7.3%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 3.2% 2.5–4.2% 2.3–4.5% 2.1–4.7% 1.8–5.3%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 2.8% 2.1–3.7% 2.0–4.0% 1.8–4.2% 1.5–4.7%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 1.9% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.2% 0.9–3.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 21 19–24 19–24 18–25 18–26
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 20 18–22 18–23 17–24 17–25
Levica 9 11 9–12 9–13 8–13 8–14
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 10 9–12 8–12 8–13 8–13
Socialni demokrati 10 9 7–11 7–11 7–12 6–12
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 5 4–6 3–6 0–7 0–7
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 4 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.3% 100%  
18 4% 99.7%  
19 6% 95%  
20 19% 89%  
21 26% 70% Median
22 16% 43%  
23 15% 27%  
24 9% 12%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.5% 0.8%  
27 0.2% 0.3%  
28 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.3% 100%  
17 3% 99.7%  
18 8% 96%  
19 24% 88%  
20 18% 64% Median
21 21% 46%  
22 17% 25%  
23 5% 8%  
24 1.2% 3%  
25 1.4% 2% Last Result
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 4% 99.8%  
9 14% 96% Last Result
10 24% 82%  
11 28% 58% Median
12 22% 30%  
13 7% 9%  
14 1.1% 1.4%  
15 0.2% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.4% 100% Last Result
8 5% 99.5%  
9 13% 95%  
10 38% 82% Median
11 30% 44%  
12 9% 13%  
13 4% 4%  
14 0.4% 0.5%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.6% 100%  
7 9% 99.4%  
8 29% 90%  
9 32% 61% Median
10 18% 29% Last Result
11 8% 11%  
12 3% 3%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0.6% 96%  
4 34% 95% Last Result
5 43% 61% Median
6 14% 18%  
7 4% 4%  
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100%  
1 0% 89%  
2 0% 89%  
3 0.8% 89%  
4 40% 89% Median
5 34% 48% Last Result
6 13% 15%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Median
1 0% 17%  
2 0% 17%  
3 2% 17%  
4 14% 14%  
5 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Median
1 0% 5%  
2 0% 5%  
3 0.9% 5%  
4 4% 4%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 50 46 58% 43–48 43–49 42–50 40–51
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 46 51% 43–49 42–50 41–50 40–52
Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 45 45% 42–48 42–49 41–49 39–50
Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 45 42% 42–48 42–48 40–49 39–50
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka 38 42 6% 39–45 38–46 37–47 37–48
Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati 30 41 1.3% 38–43 38–44 37–45 36–47
Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 41 2% 38–43 38–44 37–45 36–47
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 43 36 0% 33–38 31–39 30–40 29–41
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 35 0% 32–38 31–38 30–39 29–40
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 35 0% 32–38 31–38 30–39 29–40
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 30 0% 28–33 27–33 27–34 26–35
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 30 0% 28–33 27–34 27–34 26–36
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 13 0% 11–16 9–17 8–17 7–18

Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.4% 100%  
40 0.6% 99.6%  
41 1.5% 99.1%  
42 2% 98%  
43 11% 95%  
44 8% 84% Median
45 18% 76%  
46 22% 58% Majority
47 19% 36%  
48 9% 18%  
49 5% 9%  
50 4% 4% Last Result
51 0.4% 0.8%  
52 0.3% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.4% 99.9%  
40 0.5% 99.5%  
41 4% 99.0%  
42 2% 95%  
43 6% 93% Last Result
44 13% 87%  
45 23% 74% Median
46 8% 51% Majority
47 15% 43%  
48 15% 28%  
49 5% 12%  
50 5% 7%  
51 1.4% 2%  
52 0.4% 0.7%  
53 0.3% 0.3%  
54 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.6% 99.9%  
40 2% 99.3%  
41 2% 98%  
42 10% 96%  
43 13% 86%  
44 9% 73% Median
45 19% 64% Last Result
46 15% 45% Majority
47 17% 30%  
48 7% 13%  
49 3% 6%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.2% 0.5%  
52 0.3% 0.3%  
53 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.8% 99.8%  
40 2% 99.0%  
41 2% 97%  
42 11% 95%  
43 13% 84%  
44 10% 70% Median
45 19% 60%  
46 14% 42% Majority
47 15% 28%  
48 7% 12%  
49 3% 5%  
50 1.4% 2%  
51 0.1% 0.3%  
52 0.2% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.4% 100%  
37 3% 99.6%  
38 3% 97% Last Result
39 5% 93%  
40 17% 88%  
41 21% 71% Median
42 16% 51%  
43 18% 34%  
44 6% 17%  
45 4% 10%  
46 3% 6% Majority
47 2% 3%  
48 0.7% 1.0%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.9%  
36 0.9% 99.6%  
37 3% 98.7%  
38 12% 96%  
39 16% 83%  
40 11% 67% Median
41 17% 56%  
42 17% 39%  
43 14% 21%  
44 3% 7%  
45 3% 4%  
46 0.7% 1.3% Majority
47 0.4% 0.6%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.8% 99.8%  
37 3% 98.9%  
38 11% 96%  
39 15% 85%  
40 10% 70% Last Result, Median
41 17% 60%  
42 19% 43%  
43 15% 24%  
44 3% 8%  
45 3% 5%  
46 0.8% 2% Majority
47 0.6% 0.8%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 1.1% 99.9%  
30 2% 98.9%  
31 2% 97%  
32 3% 95%  
33 9% 92%  
34 16% 83% Median
35 16% 67%  
36 21% 51%  
37 15% 31%  
38 9% 15%  
39 4% 6%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.5% 0.8%  
42 0.1% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
44 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
29 1.4% 99.7%  
30 3% 98%  
31 5% 95%  
32 8% 90%  
33 14% 82%  
34 17% 68% Median
35 14% 51%  
36 16% 37%  
37 11% 21%  
38 8% 11%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.3% 0.5%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 1.3% 99.8%  
30 3% 98.5%  
31 5% 96%  
32 8% 91%  
33 13% 83%  
34 16% 70% Median
35 13% 54%  
36 16% 41%  
37 13% 25%  
38 8% 12% Last Result
39 3% 4%  
40 0.4% 0.7%  
41 0.3% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0.3% 100%  
26 0.6% 99.7%  
27 5% 99.1%  
28 14% 94%  
29 18% 81%  
30 18% 63% Median
31 12% 45%  
32 20% 33%  
33 9% 14%  
34 3% 5%  
35 0.9% 1.3%  
36 0.3% 0.4%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.8%  
27 5% 99.4%  
28 13% 95%  
29 16% 82%  
30 16% 65% Median
31 12% 49%  
32 20% 37%  
33 11% 17% Last Result
34 5% 6%  
35 1.1% 2%  
36 0.4% 0.7%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.5% 99.9%  
8 3% 99.4%  
9 2% 97%  
10 3% 94%  
11 5% 91%  
12 11% 87%  
13 32% 76% Median
14 19% 44%  
15 12% 25%  
16 7% 14%  
17 5% 6%  
18 1.2% 1.4%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations