Opinion Poll by Mediana for POP TV, 1–26 January 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 12.6% | 24.6% | 22.7–26.7% | 22.2–27.3% | 21.7–27.8% | 20.8–28.8% |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 24.9% | 22.9% | 21.1–25.0% | 20.6–25.6% | 20.1–26.1% | 19.2–27.1% |
| Socialni demokrati | 9.9% | 11.9% | 10.5–13.5% | 10.1–13.9% | 9.8–14.4% | 9.1–15.2% |
| Levica | 9.3% | 11.9% | 10.5–13.5% | 10.1–13.9% | 9.8–14.4% | 9.1–15.2% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7.2% | 10.0% | 8.8–11.6% | 8.4–12.0% | 8.1–12.4% | 7.5–13.1% |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.6–8.0% | 5.3–8.3% | 5.1–8.6% | 4.6–9.3% |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.4–5.3% | 3.2–5.6% | 3.0–5.8% | 2.6–6.4% |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.2–3.8% | 2.0–4.1% | 1.9–4.3% | 1.6–4.8% |
| Stranka modernega centra | 9.7% | 2.5% | 1.9–3.4% | 1.7–3.6% | 1.6–3.8% | 1.3–4.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 13 | 24 | 22–27 | 21–27 | 21–28 | 20–28 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 25 | 22 | 20–25 | 20–25 | 19–26 | 18–26 |
| Socialni demokrati | 10 | 11 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 9–14 |
| Levica | 9 | 11 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–14 | 9–15 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7 | 10 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 7–12 |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 5 | 6 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4 | 4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Stranka modernega centra | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Lista Marjana Šarca
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 5% | 99.0% | |
| 22 | 7% | 94% | |
| 23 | 27% | 86% | |
| 24 | 24% | 59% | Median |
| 25 | 15% | 35% | |
| 26 | 10% | 20% | |
| 27 | 7% | 10% | |
| 28 | 3% | 3% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska demokratska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 19 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 20 | 8% | 97% | |
| 21 | 15% | 89% | |
| 22 | 27% | 74% | Median |
| 23 | 23% | 47% | |
| 24 | 15% | 25% | |
| 25 | 7% | 10% | Last Result |
| 26 | 2% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 9 | 6% | 99.5% | |
| 10 | 14% | 94% | Last Result |
| 11 | 39% | 80% | Median |
| 12 | 25% | 41% | |
| 13 | 12% | 16% | |
| 14 | 3% | 3% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Levica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 9 | 3% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 10 | 14% | 97% | |
| 11 | 34% | 83% | Median |
| 12 | 34% | 49% | |
| 13 | 12% | 15% | |
| 14 | 2% | 3% | |
| 15 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 8 | 12% | 98% | |
| 9 | 34% | 85% | |
| 10 | 34% | 51% | Median |
| 11 | 13% | 17% | |
| 12 | 3% | 4% | |
| 13 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 18% | 98% | Last Result |
| 6 | 38% | 80% | Median |
| 7 | 30% | 42% | |
| 8 | 11% | 12% | |
| 9 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 40% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 60% | |
| 2 | 0% | 60% | |
| 3 | 2% | 60% | |
| 4 | 44% | 59% | Last Result, Median |
| 5 | 13% | 14% | |
| 6 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka Alenke Bratušek
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 4 | 4% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka modernega centra
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 43 | 53 | 100% | 50–56 | 49–57 | 49–57 | 47–58 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 35 | 51 | 99.7% | 49–54 | 48–55 | 47–56 | 46–57 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra | 50 | 51 | 99.9% | 49–54 | 48–55 | 47–56 | 47–57 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 45 | 51 | 99.7% | 49–54 | 48–55 | 47–56 | 46–57 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka | 38 | 47 | 64% | 44–49 | 43–50 | 43–51 | 41–52 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 30 | 45 | 34% | 43–48 | 42–49 | 41–49 | 40–50 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra | 40 | 45 | 34% | 43–48 | 42–49 | 41–49 | 40–50 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 28 | 42 | 3% | 39–44 | 38–45 | 38–46 | 37–47 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra | 43 | 42 | 5% | 40–45 | 38–45 | 38–46 | 37–47 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 38 | 42 | 3% | 39–44 | 38–45 | 38–46 | 37–47 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati | 23 | 35 | 0% | 33–38 | 32–39 | 32–39 | 30–40 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra | 33 | 35 | 0% | 33–38 | 32–39 | 32–39 | 30–40 |
| Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 25 | 18 | 0% | 16–20 | 15–20 | 15–20 | 14–22 |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 100% | Majority |
| 47 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 49 | 4% | 98% | |
| 50 | 9% | 94% | |
| 51 | 14% | 85% | |
| 52 | 18% | 71% | Median |
| 53 | 16% | 54% | |
| 54 | 13% | 37% | |
| 55 | 8% | 24% | |
| 56 | 10% | 15% | |
| 57 | 4% | 5% | |
| 58 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.6% | 99.7% | Majority |
| 47 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 48 | 5% | 96% | |
| 49 | 12% | 91% | |
| 50 | 18% | 79% | |
| 51 | 14% | 61% | Median |
| 52 | 17% | 47% | |
| 53 | 16% | 31% | |
| 54 | 8% | 15% | |
| 55 | 4% | 7% | |
| 56 | 2% | 3% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 47 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 48 | 4% | 97% | |
| 49 | 11% | 93% | |
| 50 | 18% | 81% | Last Result |
| 51 | 14% | 64% | Median |
| 52 | 17% | 50% | |
| 53 | 16% | 33% | |
| 54 | 9% | 17% | |
| 55 | 5% | 8% | |
| 56 | 2% | 3% | |
| 57 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.6% | 99.7% | Majority |
| 47 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 48 | 5% | 97% | |
| 49 | 12% | 91% | |
| 50 | 18% | 79% | |
| 51 | 14% | 61% | Median |
| 52 | 17% | 47% | |
| 53 | 16% | 31% | |
| 54 | 8% | 15% | |
| 55 | 4% | 7% | |
| 56 | 2% | 3% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 42 | 1.5% | 99.3% | |
| 43 | 5% | 98% | |
| 44 | 9% | 93% | |
| 45 | 20% | 84% | |
| 46 | 13% | 64% | Median, Majority |
| 47 | 17% | 51% | |
| 48 | 18% | 34% | |
| 49 | 8% | 16% | |
| 50 | 5% | 8% | |
| 51 | 3% | 3% | |
| 52 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 41 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 42 | 6% | 97% | |
| 43 | 14% | 91% | |
| 44 | 19% | 77% | |
| 45 | 24% | 58% | Median |
| 46 | 13% | 34% | Majority |
| 47 | 8% | 21% | |
| 48 | 6% | 12% | |
| 49 | 5% | 6% | |
| 50 | 2% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 41 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 42 | 6% | 97% | |
| 43 | 14% | 91% | |
| 44 | 19% | 77% | |
| 45 | 24% | 58% | Median |
| 46 | 13% | 34% | Majority |
| 47 | 8% | 21% | |
| 48 | 6% | 13% | |
| 49 | 5% | 7% | |
| 50 | 2% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 1.5% | 99.6% | |
| 38 | 4% | 98% | |
| 39 | 6% | 94% | |
| 40 | 15% | 88% | |
| 41 | 22% | 73% | Median |
| 42 | 13% | 51% | |
| 43 | 20% | 38% | |
| 44 | 9% | 18% | |
| 45 | 6% | 9% | |
| 46 | 3% | 3% | Majority |
| 47 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 37 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 38 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 39 | 5% | 95% | |
| 40 | 15% | 90% | |
| 41 | 21% | 75% | Median |
| 42 | 13% | 54% | |
| 43 | 21% | 41% | Last Result |
| 44 | 9% | 20% | |
| 45 | 6% | 11% | |
| 46 | 3% | 5% | Majority |
| 47 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 1.5% | 99.6% | |
| 38 | 4% | 98% | Last Result |
| 39 | 5% | 94% | |
| 40 | 15% | 88% | |
| 41 | 22% | 73% | Median |
| 42 | 13% | 51% | |
| 43 | 20% | 38% | |
| 44 | 9% | 18% | |
| 45 | 6% | 9% | |
| 46 | 3% | 3% | Majority |
| 47 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 31 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 32 | 4% | 98% | |
| 33 | 7% | 94% | |
| 34 | 18% | 87% | |
| 35 | 26% | 69% | Median |
| 36 | 17% | 43% | |
| 37 | 10% | 26% | |
| 38 | 10% | 16% | |
| 39 | 3% | 5% | |
| 40 | 2% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 31 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 32 | 4% | 98% | |
| 33 | 7% | 94% | Last Result |
| 34 | 18% | 87% | |
| 35 | 26% | 69% | Median |
| 36 | 17% | 43% | |
| 37 | 10% | 26% | |
| 38 | 10% | 16% | |
| 39 | 3% | 6% | |
| 40 | 2% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 6% | 98.6% | |
| 16 | 13% | 93% | |
| 17 | 27% | 79% | Median |
| 18 | 24% | 53% | |
| 19 | 19% | 29% | |
| 20 | 8% | 10% | |
| 21 | 2% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Mediana
- Commissioner(s): POP TV
- Fieldwork period: 1–26 January 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 767
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.63%