Opinion Poll by Parsifal, 27–29 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 27.2% 25.4–29.1% 24.9–29.7% 24.5–30.1% 23.6–31.1%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 27.1% 25.3–29.0% 24.8–29.6% 24.4–30.0% 23.5–30.9%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 10.5% 9.3–11.9% 9.0–12.3% 8.7–12.6% 8.2–13.3%
Levica 9.3% 7.2% 6.3–8.4% 6.0–8.8% 5.8–9.1% 5.3–9.7%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 5.8% 4.9–6.9% 4.7–7.2% 4.5–7.5% 4.1–8.0%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 5.8% 4.9–6.9% 4.7–7.2% 4.5–7.5% 4.1–8.0%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 4.9% 4.1–6.0% 3.9–6.2% 3.7–6.5% 3.4–7.0%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 3.4% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.1–5.2%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 3.2% 2.5–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.2–4.5% 2.0–4.9%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 2.8% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.7–4.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 28 25–29 24–30 24–30 23–32
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 27 26–29 25–30 24–31 23–31
Socialni demokrati 10 10 9–12 9–12 8–12 8–13
Levica 9 7 6–8 5–8 5–9 5–9
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 5 5–6 4–7 4–7 4–8
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 5 5–6 4–7 4–7 4–8
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 5 4–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0–4

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100%  
23 0.8% 99.9%  
24 5% 99.1%  
25 8% 95% Last Result
26 12% 87%  
27 16% 75%  
28 44% 59% Median
29 7% 16%  
30 7% 9%  
31 0.8% 1.4%  
32 0.5% 0.6%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.7% 99.9%  
24 3% 99.2%  
25 6% 96%  
26 23% 90%  
27 22% 67% Median
28 28% 45%  
29 8% 17%  
30 6% 10%  
31 3% 3%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 3% 99.9%  
9 15% 97%  
10 42% 82% Last Result, Median
11 29% 40%  
12 10% 11%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 6% 99.9%  
6 20% 94%  
7 54% 74% Median
8 17% 20%  
9 2% 3% Last Result
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 6% 99.7%  
5 55% 93% Last Result, Median
6 32% 38%  
7 6% 6%  
8 0.6% 0.6%  
9 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0.1% 99.8%  
4 8% 99.6% Last Result
5 53% 92% Median
6 31% 39%  
7 6% 7%  
8 0.7% 0.7%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100%  
1 0% 92%  
2 0% 92%  
3 0% 92%  
4 34% 92%  
5 49% 57% Median
6 7% 9%  
7 1.2% 1.2% Last Result
8 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Median
1 0% 15%  
2 0% 15%  
3 0.3% 15%  
4 14% 14%  
5 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 8%  
2 0% 8%  
3 0.3% 8%  
4 7% 7%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0.1% 2%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 60 100% 57–62 57–63 55–64 54–66
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 55 100% 52–57 51–58 50–59 49–60
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 50 48 93% 46–51 45–51 45–51 43–53
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 45 48 88% 45–49 45–51 44–51 42–52
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 35 48 88% 45–49 45–51 43–51 42–52
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 43 43 21% 42–46 41–47 40–47 39–49
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 43 12% 41–46 40–46 39–47 38–47
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 43 13% 41–46 40–46 39–47 38–48
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 42 1.3% 40–44 39–45 38–45 36–47
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 43 2% 40–44 39–45 38–45 37–47
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 38 0% 35–40 35–40 34–41 33–42
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 38 0% 35–40 35–41 34–41 33–42
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 16 0% 14–17 14–18 13–19 13–20

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100% Last Result
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100% Majority
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.5% 99.8%  
55 2% 99.3%  
56 2% 97%  
57 7% 95%  
58 12% 88%  
59 6% 76%  
60 25% 70% Median
61 28% 45%  
62 7% 17%  
63 5% 10%  
64 2% 5%  
65 0.5% 2%  
66 2% 2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100% Majority
47 0% 100%  
48 0.2% 100%  
49 0.8% 99.8%  
50 3% 99.0%  
51 5% 96%  
52 9% 91%  
53 7% 82%  
54 13% 74%  
55 22% 61% Median
56 24% 39%  
57 9% 15%  
58 4% 7%  
59 0.6% 3%  
60 2% 2%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.6% 99.7%  
44 1.1% 99.2%  
45 5% 98%  
46 12% 93% Majority
47 16% 81% Median
48 33% 64%  
49 13% 32%  
50 8% 19% Last Result
51 8% 11%  
52 1.4% 2%  
53 0.8% 1.1%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 1.0% 99.8%  
43 1.1% 98.7%  
44 1.5% 98%  
45 8% 96% Last Result
46 17% 88% Majority
47 19% 72% Median
48 33% 53%  
49 11% 20%  
50 3% 9%  
51 5% 6%  
52 0.5% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.1% 99.8%  
42 1.2% 99.7%  
43 1.3% 98.5%  
44 2% 97%  
45 8% 96%  
46 18% 88% Majority
47 19% 70% Median
48 33% 51%  
49 11% 18%  
50 2% 8%  
51 5% 5%  
52 0.4% 0.5%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.7% 99.8%  
40 3% 99.1%  
41 4% 96%  
42 16% 92% Median
43 37% 76% Last Result
44 7% 39%  
45 11% 33%  
46 16% 21% Majority
47 3% 6%  
48 1.4% 2%  
49 0.7% 0.9%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0.3% 100%  
38 1.1% 99.7%  
39 1.5% 98.6%  
40 5% 97%  
41 8% 93%  
42 21% 85% Median
43 37% 63%  
44 6% 26%  
45 8% 20%  
46 9% 12% Majority
47 2% 3%  
48 0.3% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.9% 99.7% Last Result
39 1.3% 98.8%  
40 4% 97%  
41 8% 93%  
42 21% 86% Median
43 37% 65%  
44 6% 28%  
45 9% 22%  
46 10% 13% Majority
47 2% 3%  
48 0.3% 0.5%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.3% 99.8%  
37 0.5% 99.5%  
38 2% 98.9%  
39 6% 97%  
40 15% 91%  
41 14% 76%  
42 13% 62% Median
43 35% 49%  
44 8% 14%  
45 5% 6%  
46 0.8% 1.3% Majority
47 0.5% 0.6%  
48 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.3% 99.8%  
37 0.4% 99.5%  
38 2% 99.1%  
39 6% 97%  
40 15% 91% Last Result
41 13% 77%  
42 13% 63% Median
43 35% 51%  
44 8% 16%  
45 5% 7%  
46 2% 2% Majority
47 0.6% 0.7%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.3% 100%  
33 0.8% 99.7%  
34 4% 98.9%  
35 8% 95%  
36 14% 87%  
37 14% 74% Median
38 38% 59%  
39 3% 22%  
40 14% 19%  
41 4% 5%  
42 0.5% 0.6%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.7% 99.7% Last Result
34 3% 99.1%  
35 7% 96%  
36 14% 88%  
37 14% 75% Median
38 37% 61%  
39 3% 23%  
40 15% 20%  
41 4% 6%  
42 1.2% 1.4%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.1% 99.9%  
12 0.3% 99.8%  
13 2% 99.5%  
14 9% 97%  
15 31% 88% Median
16 34% 57%  
17 15% 24%  
18 6% 9%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.5% 0.8%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations