Opinion Poll by Mediana for Delo, 28 January–3 February 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 26.0% 24.1–28.1% 23.5–28.7% 23.0–29.2% 22.1–30.2%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 22.3% 20.4–24.3% 19.9–24.8% 19.5–25.3% 18.6–26.3%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 11.3% 10.0–12.9% 9.6–13.4% 9.3–13.7% 8.7–14.5%
Levica 9.3% 11.3% 10.0–12.9% 9.6–13.4% 9.3–13.7% 8.7–14.5%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 5.9% 5.0–7.1% 4.7–7.5% 4.5–7.8% 4.0–8.4%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 5.1% 4.3–6.3% 4.0–6.6% 3.8–6.9% 3.4–7.5%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 3.5% 2.8–4.5% 2.6–4.8% 2.4–5.0% 2.1–5.5%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 3.1% 2.4–4.1% 2.2–4.3% 2.1–4.6% 1.8–5.1%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 2.8% 2.2–3.8% 2.0–4.0% 1.9–4.3% 1.6–4.7%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 2.7% 2.1–3.6% 1.9–3.9% 1.8–4.1% 1.5–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 26 23–28 23–29 23–30 22–31
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 22 20–24 19–25 19–25 18–27
Socialni demokrati 10 11 10–13 9–13 9–14 8–14
Levica 9 11 10–13 9–14 9–14 8–14
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 6 4–7 4–7 4–7 4–8
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 5 4–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–4

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.9%  
22 1.3% 99.7%  
23 10% 98%  
24 17% 89%  
25 16% 71% Last Result
26 11% 55% Median
27 14% 44%  
28 22% 30%  
29 5% 8%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.8% 0.9%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.8% 99.9%  
19 5% 99.0%  
20 11% 94%  
21 22% 84%  
22 21% 62% Median
23 22% 41%  
24 10% 19%  
25 7% 9%  
26 1.0% 2%  
27 0.6% 0.7%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 2% 100%  
9 6% 98%  
10 26% 93% Last Result
11 26% 67% Median
12 25% 41%  
13 13% 16%  
14 3% 3%  
15 0.3% 0.4%  
16 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 1.0% 100%  
9 9% 99.0% Last Result
10 24% 90%  
11 24% 66% Median
12 24% 42%  
13 14% 19%  
14 5% 5%  
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 0% 99.6%  
2 0% 99.6%  
3 0% 99.6%  
4 10% 99.6%  
5 38% 89%  
6 32% 52% Median
7 18% 20% Last Result
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 0% 91%  
2 0% 91%  
3 0.3% 91%  
4 31% 91% Last Result
5 37% 60% Median
6 21% 24%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 78% 100% Median
1 0% 22%  
2 0% 22%  
3 0.6% 22%  
4 18% 22%  
5 3% 4%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Median
1 0% 13%  
2 0% 13%  
3 0.2% 13%  
4 12% 13%  
5 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Median
1 0% 5%  
2 0% 5%  
3 0.2% 5%  
4 5% 5%  
5 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0.2% 3%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 48 91% 46–52 45–53 44–54 43–55
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 48 87% 45–51 44–52 44–53 42–55
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek 50 40 2% 37–44 37–45 36–45 35–47
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 45 40 2% 37–44 36–45 36–45 35–47
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 40 0.8% 37–43 36–44 36–45 34–46
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 39 0.8% 36–43 35–44 35–45 34–46
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 39 0.2% 36–41 35–42 35–44 33–45
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek 43 35 0% 32–38 31–39 30–40 30–42
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 38 34 0% 32–38 31–39 30–40 29–42
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 34 0% 32–38 31–38 30–39 29–40
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 34 0% 31–37 30–38 29–39 29–40
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 33 0% 30–36 30–37 29–38 29–38
Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 25 12 0% 10–16 10–17 9–18 8–19

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.8% 99.8% Last Result
44 3% 99.0%  
45 6% 96%  
46 10% 91% Majority
47 14% 80%  
48 18% 66% Median
49 13% 48%  
50 13% 35%  
51 11% 22%  
52 5% 11%  
53 2% 6%  
54 3% 4%  
55 0.8% 1.0%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.4% 99.7%  
43 1.4% 99.3%  
44 3% 98%  
45 8% 95%  
46 12% 87% Majority
47 17% 76%  
48 19% 59% Median
49 11% 40%  
50 14% 28%  
51 8% 15%  
52 4% 7%  
53 1.3% 3%  
54 1.0% 2%  
55 0.6% 0.8%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.5% 99.8%  
36 4% 99.3%  
37 9% 95%  
38 9% 86%  
39 17% 78% Median
40 13% 61%  
41 15% 48%  
42 9% 33%  
43 9% 25%  
44 7% 16%  
45 6% 9%  
46 1.5% 2% Majority
47 0.7% 0.9%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.8% 99.8%  
36 4% 99.0%  
37 9% 94%  
38 10% 85%  
39 18% 76% Median
40 13% 58%  
41 15% 45%  
42 8% 29%  
43 7% 21%  
44 7% 14%  
45 5% 8% Last Result
46 1.3% 2% Majority
47 0.6% 0.8%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.3% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.7%  
35 1.2% 99.4%  
36 5% 98%  
37 10% 93%  
38 10% 82%  
39 20% 72% Median
40 13% 52% Last Result
41 17% 38%  
42 8% 21%  
43 5% 13%  
44 6% 8%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.5% 0.8% Majority
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 2% 99.8%  
35 4% 98% Last Result
36 7% 94%  
37 12% 87%  
38 10% 75%  
39 19% 66% Median
40 14% 46%  
41 16% 33%  
42 6% 16%  
43 3% 11%  
44 3% 8%  
45 3% 4%  
46 0.5% 0.8% Majority
47 0.3% 0.3%  
48 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.4% 99.9%  
34 2% 99.5%  
35 4% 98%  
36 9% 93%  
37 14% 84%  
38 10% 71%  
39 21% 60% Median
40 13% 40%  
41 17% 27%  
42 5% 9%  
43 1.0% 4%  
44 3% 3%  
45 0.4% 0.6%  
46 0.1% 0.2% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.4% 100%  
30 3% 99.5%  
31 3% 97%  
32 13% 94%  
33 16% 81% Median
34 11% 65%  
35 15% 54%  
36 9% 39%  
37 10% 30%  
38 10% 20%  
39 6% 9%  
40 2% 4%  
41 0.6% 1.3%  
42 0.6% 0.7%  
43 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
44 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.9%  
30 3% 99.4%  
31 4% 97%  
32 13% 93%  
33 17% 79% Median
34 12% 62%  
35 15% 50%  
36 9% 34%  
37 9% 26%  
38 9% 17% Last Result
39 5% 8%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.5% 1.1%  
42 0.5% 0.6%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.8% 99.9%  
30 4% 99.0%  
31 5% 96%  
32 15% 91%  
33 19% 76% Last Result, Median
34 13% 56%  
35 17% 43%  
36 8% 26%  
37 7% 18%  
38 8% 11%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.9% 1.2%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
29 3% 99.8%  
30 7% 97%  
31 6% 90%  
32 16% 85%  
33 17% 69% Median
34 15% 52%  
35 16% 37%  
36 7% 21%  
37 7% 14%  
38 3% 8%  
39 3% 4%  
40 0.7% 1.0%  
41 0.1% 0.3%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 3% 99.6%  
30 8% 96%  
31 7% 89%  
32 18% 82%  
33 19% 64% Median
34 15% 44%  
35 17% 30%  
36 6% 13%  
37 4% 7%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.4% 0.5%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 1.2% 100%  
9 2% 98.8%  
10 16% 97%  
11 16% 80% Median
12 19% 64%  
13 13% 45%  
14 10% 32%  
15 9% 22%  
16 7% 13%  
17 3% 6%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.7% 1.0%  
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations