Opinion Poll by Parsifal for Nova 24, 3–5 February 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 26.1% 24.0–28.3% 23.4–28.9% 23.0–29.4% 22.0–30.5%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 24.5% 22.5–26.7% 21.9–27.3% 21.5–27.8% 20.5–28.9%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 9.3% 8.0–10.8% 7.6–11.2% 7.3–11.6% 6.8–12.4%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 7.7% 6.5–9.1% 6.2–9.5% 5.9–9.9% 5.4–10.6%
Levica 9.3% 7.4% 6.3–8.8% 6.0–9.2% 5.7–9.6% 5.2–10.3%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 6.3% 5.2–7.6% 4.9–8.0% 4.7–8.3% 4.3–9.0%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 5.7% 4.7–7.0% 4.4–7.3% 4.2–7.7% 3.8–8.3%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 4.3% 3.4–5.4% 3.2–5.7% 3.0–6.0% 2.7–6.6%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 2.8% 2.2–3.8% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.4% 1.6–4.9%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 2.8% 2.2–3.8% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.4% 1.6–4.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 25 24–28 23–29 22–30 21–31
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 24 22–26 21–27 21–28 20–29
Socialni demokrati 10 9 7–10 7–11 7–11 6–12
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 7 6–9 6–9 5–9 5–10
Levica 9 7 6–8 5–9 5–9 5–10
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 6 5–7 4–8 4–8 4–9
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 5 4–7 4–7 4–8 0–8
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 4 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0–3 0–4
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.7% 99.8%  
22 3% 99.1%  
23 5% 96%  
24 24% 90%  
25 19% 66% Last Result, Median
26 21% 47%  
27 13% 26%  
28 6% 13%  
29 3% 7%  
30 4% 4%  
31 0.6% 0.7%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.3% 100%  
20 1.3% 99.6%  
21 5% 98%  
22 18% 94%  
23 20% 76%  
24 25% 56% Median
25 11% 31%  
26 12% 21%  
27 6% 9%  
28 2% 3%  
29 1.0% 1.1%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.2% 100%  
7 15% 98.8%  
8 31% 84%  
9 26% 53% Median
10 19% 27% Last Result
11 7% 9%  
12 1.4% 2%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100% Last Result
5 4% 99.9%  
6 22% 96%  
7 27% 74% Median
8 30% 47%  
9 15% 17%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 8% 99.8%  
6 20% 91%  
7 40% 72% Median
8 22% 32%  
9 8% 10% Last Result
10 2% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 6% 99.8%  
5 22% 93%  
6 45% 71% Median
7 20% 26% Last Result
8 5% 6%  
9 0.4% 0.5%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.4% 100%  
1 0% 98.6%  
2 0% 98.6%  
3 0.5% 98.6%  
4 15% 98%  
5 43% 83% Last Result, Median
6 30% 40%  
7 8% 10%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 26% 100% Last Result
1 0% 74%  
2 0% 74%  
3 2% 74%  
4 55% 72% Median
5 15% 17%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0.5% 3%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Median
1 0% 9%  
2 0% 9%  
3 1.0% 9%  
4 7% 8%  
5 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 54 100% 52–58 51–59 51–60 49–62
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 49 97% 47–52 46–53 45–54 44–56
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 43 24% 41–47 41–48 40–49 38–50
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 50 44 28% 42–48 41–49 40–49 39–51
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 44 26% 41–47 41–48 40–49 39–50
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 43 38 0.2% 36–42 35–43 35–43 33–45
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 38 0.3% 36–42 35–42 35–43 33–45
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 38 0.4% 36–42 35–43 35–43 34–45
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 37 0.1% 36–41 35–42 34–43 33–43
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 37 0.1% 36–42 35–42 34–43 33–44
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 32 0% 30–35 30–36 29–37 28–38
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 32 0% 30–36 30–37 29–37 28–39
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 14 0% 12–16 11–17 11–18 9–19

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100% Last Result
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 100% Majority
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 0.7% 99.6%  
50 1.2% 98.9%  
51 3% 98%  
52 10% 94%  
53 21% 84%  
54 15% 63% Median
55 15% 48%  
56 13% 33%  
57 6% 20%  
58 6% 14%  
59 4% 8%  
60 1.5% 4%  
61 1.5% 2%  
62 0.7% 0.8%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.7% 99.7%  
45 2% 99.1%  
46 4% 97% Majority
47 9% 93%  
48 28% 84%  
49 13% 56% Median
50 14% 43%  
51 12% 29%  
52 8% 18%  
53 5% 10%  
54 2% 4%  
55 0.8% 2%  
56 1.1% 1.3%  
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.4% 99.8%  
39 1.0% 99.4%  
40 2% 98%  
41 8% 96%  
42 22% 88%  
43 17% 66%  
44 13% 50% Median
45 13% 37%  
46 9% 24% Majority
47 7% 15%  
48 5% 9%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.5% 0.8%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 0.7% 99.7%  
40 2% 99.0%  
41 4% 97%  
42 20% 93%  
43 16% 73%  
44 12% 57% Median
45 17% 45%  
46 8% 28% Majority
47 8% 20%  
48 6% 12%  
49 3% 6%  
50 2% 2% Last Result
51 0.4% 0.6%  
52 0.2% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 0.9% 99.6%  
40 2% 98.7%  
41 8% 97%  
42 21% 89%  
43 16% 68%  
44 13% 51% Median
45 13% 39% Last Result
46 9% 26% Majority
47 7% 16%  
48 6% 10%  
49 3% 4%  
50 0.6% 1.0%  
51 0.3% 0.4%  
52 0.2% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.1% 99.9%  
33 0.9% 99.7%  
34 1.0% 98.8%  
35 6% 98%  
36 16% 92%  
37 21% 76%  
38 9% 55% Median
39 14% 46%  
40 14% 32%  
41 6% 18%  
42 6% 12%  
43 4% 5% Last Result
44 0.5% 2%  
45 1.2% 1.4%  
46 0.1% 0.2% Majority
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.4% 99.9%  
34 1.2% 99.5%  
35 4% 98%  
36 13% 94%  
37 12% 81%  
38 24% 69%  
39 12% 45% Median
40 13% 32%  
41 8% 20%  
42 7% 12%  
43 3% 4%  
44 1.2% 2%  
45 0.3% 0.6%  
46 0.2% 0.3% Majority
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 1.0% 99.6%  
35 4% 98.6%  
36 12% 94%  
37 12% 82%  
38 24% 70%  
39 12% 46% Median
40 13% 34% Last Result
41 8% 21%  
42 8% 13%  
43 3% 5%  
44 1.4% 2%  
45 0.6% 1.0%  
46 0.2% 0.4% Majority
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.8%  
33 1.1% 99.5%  
34 1.5% 98%  
35 7% 97%  
36 20% 90%  
37 22% 70%  
38 10% 48% Median
39 13% 38%  
40 11% 25%  
41 5% 14%  
42 6% 9%  
43 3% 3%  
44 0.2% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 1.0% 99.6%  
34 1.2% 98.7%  
35 6% 97%  
36 20% 91%  
37 22% 71%  
38 9% 49% Last Result, Median
39 13% 40%  
40 11% 26%  
41 5% 15%  
42 6% 10%  
43 3% 4%  
44 0.3% 0.6%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.7% 99.8%  
29 3% 99.1%  
30 12% 96%  
31 18% 84%  
32 20% 67%  
33 12% 46% Median
34 15% 35%  
35 10% 19%  
36 5% 9%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.8% 1.2%  
39 0.2% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.5% 99.8%  
29 3% 99.3%  
30 11% 97%  
31 17% 85%  
32 20% 68%  
33 12% 48% Last Result, Median
34 15% 36%  
35 10% 21%  
36 6% 11%  
37 3% 5%  
38 1.0% 2%  
39 0.5% 0.7%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.6% 99.9%  
10 0.9% 99.3%  
11 4% 98%  
12 9% 94%  
13 21% 85%  
14 26% 64% Median
15 16% 38%  
16 15% 22%  
17 4% 8%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.5% 1.0%  
20 0.4% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations