Opinion Poll by Ninamedia for RTV SLO, 11–13 February 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 29.3% 27.1–31.6% 26.6–32.2% 26.0–32.8% 25.0–33.9%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 25.6% 23.5–27.8% 23.0–28.4% 22.5–28.9% 21.5–30.0%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 12.3% 10.8–14.0% 10.4–14.5% 10.1–14.9% 9.4–15.8%
Levica 9.3% 7.9% 6.7–9.3% 6.4–9.7% 6.1–10.1% 5.6–10.8%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 7.9% 6.7–9.3% 6.4–9.7% 6.1–10.1% 5.6–10.8%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 4.3% 3.4–5.4% 3.2–5.8% 3.0–6.1% 2.7–6.7%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 3.7% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.5–5.4% 2.2–6.0%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 3.4% 2.7–4.5% 2.5–4.8% 2.3–5.1% 2.0–5.6%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 3.0% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.3% 2.0–4.6% 1.7–5.1%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 1.4% 1.0–2.2% 0.9–2.4% 0.8–2.6% 0.6–3.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 29 27–31 26–32 26–33 25–34
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 26 23–28 22–29 22–29 21–31
Socialni demokrati 10 12 10–14 10–14 9–15 9–16
Levica 9 8 6–9 6–9 6–10 5–10
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 8 6–9 6–10 6–10 5–11
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 4 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–6
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.4% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.5% Last Result
26 6% 98%  
27 11% 92%  
28 24% 81%  
29 15% 57% Median
30 19% 43%  
31 13% 23%  
32 6% 10%  
33 3% 4%  
34 1.0% 1.5%  
35 0.3% 0.5%  
36 0% 0.2%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 1.2% 99.8%  
22 4% 98.6%  
23 9% 95%  
24 14% 86%  
25 10% 72%  
26 33% 63% Median
27 13% 30%  
28 9% 17%  
29 6% 8%  
30 0.6% 2%  
31 1.4% 2%  
32 0.4% 0.4%  
33 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 2% 99.8%  
10 9% 97% Last Result
11 30% 89%  
12 17% 58% Median
13 30% 42%  
14 8% 12%  
15 3% 4%  
16 0.4% 0.6%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 2% 99.9%  
6 15% 98%  
7 26% 83%  
8 28% 57% Median
9 25% 29% Last Result
10 4% 4%  
11 0.3% 0.4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 9% 98%  
7 25% 89% Last Result
8 45% 64% Median
9 13% 19%  
10 5% 6%  
11 0.9% 1.0%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 26% 100%  
1 0% 74%  
2 0% 74%  
3 0.3% 74%  
4 46% 74% Median
5 25% 28% Last Result
6 3% 4%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 73% 100% Median
1 0% 27%  
2 0% 27%  
3 6% 27%  
4 17% 21% Last Result
5 3% 4%  
6 0.9% 0.9%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 82% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 18%  
2 0% 18%  
3 0.7% 18%  
4 15% 17%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Median
1 0% 15%  
2 0% 15%  
3 0.9% 15%  
4 13% 14%  
5 1.1% 1.2%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 58 100% 55–61 54–62 52–64 50–65
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 54 100% 51–58 51–59 50–60 48–62
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek 50 49 93% 46–52 45–54 44–54 42–55
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 49 93% 46–52 45–54 44–54 42–55
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 49 88% 45–52 44–53 43–54 41–55
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 45 49% 42–49 41–50 41–51 39–52
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 46 55% 42–50 42–51 41–51 40–53
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 41 5% 38–44 36–45 36–46 34–47
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek 43 42 7% 38–45 37–46 36–46 35–48
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 42 7% 38–45 37–46 36–46 35–48
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 38 0.3% 35–43 34–43 34–43 33–45
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 38 0% 34–41 34–42 33–43 32–44
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 16 0% 13–18 12–19 11–20 10–22

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100% Last Result
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100% Majority
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.5% 99.9%  
51 0.7% 99.4%  
52 1.2% 98.7%  
53 2% 97%  
54 4% 96%  
55 6% 92%  
56 12% 86%  
57 11% 74%  
58 20% 63%  
59 11% 42% Median
60 9% 31%  
61 17% 22%  
62 2% 5%  
63 0.4% 3%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.6% 0.7%  
66 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100% Majority
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 0.9% 99.5%  
49 0.9% 98.7%  
50 2% 98%  
51 7% 96%  
52 8% 88%  
53 6% 80%  
54 26% 74%  
55 4% 48% Median
56 18% 44%  
57 14% 26%  
58 3% 13%  
59 5% 10%  
60 2% 4%  
61 1.2% 2%  
62 0.7% 0.8%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.7%  
43 1.2% 99.4%  
44 2% 98%  
45 4% 97%  
46 7% 93% Majority
47 8% 85%  
48 6% 78%  
49 22% 71%  
50 10% 50% Last Result, Median
51 25% 40%  
52 6% 15%  
53 5% 10%  
54 4% 5%  
55 0.6% 0.8%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.7%  
43 1.2% 99.4%  
44 2% 98%  
45 4% 97% Last Result
46 7% 93% Majority
47 8% 85%  
48 6% 78%  
49 22% 71%  
50 10% 50% Median
51 25% 40%  
52 6% 15%  
53 5% 10%  
54 4% 5%  
55 0.6% 0.8%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0.7% 99.9%  
42 0.5% 99.2%  
43 2% 98.7%  
44 2% 96%  
45 6% 94%  
46 8% 88% Majority
47 11% 80%  
48 8% 69%  
49 19% 61%  
50 10% 42% Median
51 21% 32%  
52 3% 11%  
53 4% 8%  
54 3% 3%  
55 0.6% 0.7%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.9% 99.8%  
40 1.4% 99.0%  
41 6% 98%  
42 7% 92%  
43 5% 85%  
44 11% 80%  
45 20% 69%  
46 9% 49% Median, Majority
47 22% 41%  
48 8% 19%  
49 4% 10%  
50 2% 6%  
51 4% 4%  
52 0.4% 0.8%  
53 0.4% 0.4%  
54 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.7% 99.6% Last Result
41 4% 98.9%  
42 6% 95%  
43 4% 90%  
44 11% 85%  
45 19% 75%  
46 9% 55% Median, Majority
47 19% 46%  
48 9% 26%  
49 6% 18%  
50 2% 11%  
51 7% 9%  
52 2% 2%  
53 0.4% 0.7%  
54 0.3% 0.3%  
55 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 100%  
34 1.0% 99.8%  
35 0.7% 98.9%  
36 3% 98%  
37 4% 95%  
38 8% 91%  
39 9% 82%  
40 13% 73%  
41 16% 60%  
42 7% 44% Median
43 22% 37%  
44 6% 14%  
45 4% 8%  
46 4% 5% Majority
47 0.7% 0.8%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.9%  
35 0.5% 99.6%  
36 2% 99.1%  
37 3% 97%  
38 7% 94%  
39 5% 87%  
40 12% 82%  
41 17% 69%  
42 7% 52% Median
43 27% 45% Last Result
44 7% 18%  
45 5% 12%  
46 4% 7% Majority
47 1.3% 2%  
48 1.0% 1.0%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.9%  
35 0.5% 99.6%  
36 2% 99.1%  
37 3% 97%  
38 7% 94% Last Result
39 5% 87%  
40 12% 82%  
41 17% 69%  
42 7% 52% Median
43 27% 45%  
44 7% 18%  
45 5% 12%  
46 4% 7% Majority
47 1.3% 2%  
48 1.0% 1.0%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.8%  
33 1.2% 99.6% Last Result
34 6% 98%  
35 8% 92%  
36 7% 84%  
37 16% 77%  
38 14% 61% Median
39 19% 47%  
40 8% 29%  
41 8% 20%  
42 2% 12%  
43 8% 11%  
44 1.0% 2%  
45 1.0% 1.3%  
46 0.3% 0.3% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.3% 100%  
32 0.8% 99.7%  
33 2% 98.9%  
34 8% 96%  
35 9% 89%  
36 8% 79%  
37 15% 71%  
38 13% 56% Median
39 22% 43%  
40 8% 20%  
41 8% 13%  
42 1.2% 5%  
43 3% 4%  
44 0.5% 0.7%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 2% 99.7%  
11 3% 98%  
12 5% 95%  
13 6% 91%  
14 7% 85%  
15 14% 78%  
16 21% 64% Median
17 22% 43%  
18 11% 21%  
19 6% 9%  
20 2% 4%  
21 1.3% 2%  
22 1.1% 1.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations