Opinion Poll by Parsifal for Nova 24, 12–13 February 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 30.8% 28.7–33.1% 28.1–33.8% 27.6–34.3% 26.6–35.4%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 19.6% 17.8–21.6% 17.3–22.2% 16.9–22.7% 16.1–23.7%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 10.0% 8.7–11.5% 8.3–12.0% 8.0–12.4% 7.4–13.2%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 8.0% 6.9–9.5% 6.5–9.9% 6.2–10.2% 5.7–11.0%
Levica 9.3% 7.5% 6.3–8.9% 6.0–9.3% 5.8–9.6% 5.3–10.3%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 5.9% 5.0–7.2% 4.7–7.6% 4.5–7.9% 4.0–8.6%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 4.8% 3.9–6.0% 3.7–6.4% 3.5–6.7% 3.1–7.3%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 4.6% 3.7–5.7% 3.5–6.1% 3.3–6.4% 2.9–7.0%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 3.5% 2.7–4.5% 2.5–4.8% 2.3–5.1% 2.0–5.6%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 1.8% 1.3–2.6% 1.2–2.9% 1.1–3.1% 0.9–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 31 28–33 27–33 26–34 25–35
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 19 18–21 17–21 16–22 15–23
Socialni demokrati 10 10 8–11 8–11 7–12 7–13
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 8 7–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
Levica 9 7 6–8 5–9 5–9 5–10
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 5 5–6 4–7 4–7 4–8
Stranka modernega centra 10 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 4 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
26 2% 99.4%  
27 7% 97%  
28 5% 91%  
29 22% 86%  
30 13% 63%  
31 31% 51% Median
32 8% 20%  
33 7% 11%  
34 3% 4%  
35 1.1% 1.3%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.5% 99.9%  
16 2% 99.4%  
17 6% 97%  
18 39% 91%  
19 21% 53% Median
20 18% 32%  
21 9% 13%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.5% 0.8%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 3% 99.8%  
8 10% 97%  
9 29% 87%  
10 38% 58% Last Result, Median
11 16% 20%  
12 3% 4%  
13 0.9% 0.9%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.0% 100%  
6 9% 98.9%  
7 27% 90% Last Result
8 49% 63% Median
9 12% 14%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.3% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 5% 99.8%  
6 21% 95%  
7 48% 73% Median
8 20% 26%  
9 5% 6% Last Result
10 0.7% 0.8%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0.1% 99.8%  
4 6% 99.7%  
5 56% 93% Last Result, Median
6 29% 37%  
7 8% 9%  
8 0.7% 0.8%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100%  
1 0% 88%  
2 0% 88%  
3 0.5% 88%  
4 54% 88% Median
5 27% 34%  
6 6% 6%  
7 0.5% 0.5%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100%  
1 0% 87%  
2 0% 87%  
3 2% 87%  
4 42% 86% Last Result, Median
5 40% 44%  
6 4% 4%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 82% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 18%  
2 0% 18%  
3 0.7% 18%  
4 16% 17%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 54 100% 52–58 51–59 50–60 49–61
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 49 93% 46–52 45–53 45–54 44–55
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek 50 45 49% 43–48 42–49 41–49 40–51
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 45 49% 43–48 42–49 41–49 40–51
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 41 4% 40–44 39–44 38–46 36–47
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 40 0.4% 37–42 36–43 36–44 34–45
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek 43 38 0% 35–41 34–41 34–42 32–44
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 38 0% 35–41 34–41 34–42 32–44
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 36 0% 34–38 33–39 33–40 31–42
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 34 0% 32–36 31–37 31–39 29–39
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 32 0% 30–35 29–36 28–36 27–38
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 28 0% 27–31 26–31 25–32 24–34
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 19 0% 16–21 15–22 14–23 13–24

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100% Last Result
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100% Majority
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 0.9% 99.6%  
50 2% 98.7%  
51 6% 97%  
52 5% 91%  
53 7% 85%  
54 42% 78%  
55 10% 36% Median
56 10% 26%  
57 4% 16%  
58 4% 12%  
59 5% 9%  
60 3% 4%  
61 0.3% 0.8%  
62 0.2% 0.5%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.8%  
44 0.8% 99.5%  
45 6% 98.8%  
46 4% 93% Majority
47 5% 88%  
48 15% 83%  
49 37% 68%  
50 6% 30% Median
51 9% 24%  
52 5% 15%  
53 6% 10%  
54 2% 4%  
55 1.1% 2%  
56 0.3% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.9% 99.6%  
41 2% 98.8%  
42 4% 97%  
43 7% 92%  
44 6% 85%  
45 30% 79%  
46 12% 49% Median, Majority
47 24% 37%  
48 7% 12%  
49 3% 5%  
50 1.1% 2% Last Result
51 0.5% 0.9%  
52 0.3% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.9% 99.6%  
41 2% 98.8%  
42 4% 97%  
43 7% 92%  
44 6% 85%  
45 30% 79% Last Result
46 12% 49% Median, Majority
47 24% 37%  
48 7% 12%  
49 3% 5%  
50 1.1% 2%  
51 0.5% 0.9%  
52 0.3% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
36 0.4% 99.7%  
37 0.8% 99.3%  
38 3% 98%  
39 5% 95%  
40 7% 91%  
41 34% 84%  
42 23% 50% Median
43 16% 27%  
44 6% 11%  
45 1.4% 5%  
46 2% 4% Majority
47 0.5% 1.0%  
48 0.4% 0.5%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.8%  
35 0.9% 99.4%  
36 4% 98.6%  
37 6% 95%  
38 4% 89%  
39 11% 84%  
40 30% 74% Last Result
41 21% 44% Median
42 14% 22%  
43 6% 9%  
44 1.1% 3%  
45 1.1% 2%  
46 0.3% 0.4% Majority
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.5% 99.8%  
33 1.4% 99.3%  
34 4% 98%  
35 6% 94%  
36 9% 88%  
37 26% 79%  
38 13% 53% Median
39 16% 40%  
40 14% 24%  
41 7% 10%  
42 1.5% 3%  
43 0.6% 1.2% Last Result
44 0.4% 0.6%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.5% 99.8%  
33 1.4% 99.3%  
34 4% 98%  
35 6% 94%  
36 9% 88%  
37 26% 79%  
38 13% 53% Last Result, Median
39 16% 40%  
40 14% 24%  
41 7% 10%  
42 1.5% 3%  
43 0.6% 1.2%  
44 0.4% 0.6%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
31 0.6% 99.6%  
32 0.7% 99.0%  
33 3% 98%  
34 5% 95%  
35 11% 90%  
36 43% 78%  
37 14% 35% Median
38 15% 21%  
39 3% 6%  
40 1.5% 3%  
41 0.5% 1.1%  
42 0.4% 0.5%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
29 0.5% 99.7%  
30 1.3% 99.2%  
31 6% 98%  
32 8% 92%  
33 30% 84%  
34 22% 54% Median
35 10% 32%  
36 15% 22%  
37 3% 7%  
38 1.0% 4%  
39 3% 3%  
40 0.1% 0.4%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 0.8% 99.7%  
28 2% 98.9%  
29 5% 97%  
30 6% 92%  
31 11% 86%  
32 29% 75%  
33 18% 46% Last Result, Median
34 6% 27%  
35 16% 21%  
36 4% 5%  
37 0.9% 2%  
38 0.7% 0.8%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100% Last Result
24 0.5% 99.7%  
25 2% 99.1%  
26 5% 97%  
27 16% 92%  
28 34% 76%  
29 15% 42% Median
30 10% 27%  
31 13% 17%  
32 3% 4%  
33 1.0% 2%  
34 0.4% 0.5%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.8% 99.9%  
14 2% 99.0%  
15 4% 97%  
16 3% 93%  
17 9% 90%  
18 9% 81%  
19 31% 73% Median
20 27% 41%  
21 9% 14%  
22 2% 6%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.9% 1.0%  
25 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
26 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations