Opinion Poll by Ninamedia for RTV SLO, 14 January–16 February 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 29.1% 27.0–31.4% 26.4–32.1% 25.9–32.6% 24.9–33.7%
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 25.3% 23.3–27.5% 22.7–28.1% 22.2–28.6% 21.3–29.7%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 12.1% 10.7–13.9% 10.3–14.4% 9.9–14.8% 9.3–15.6%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 9.7% 8.4–11.3% 8.0–11.8% 7.7–12.1% 7.1–12.9%
Levica 9.3% 9.0% 7.7–10.5% 7.4–11.0% 7.1–11.4% 6.5–12.1%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 4.4% 3.6–5.6% 3.3–5.9% 3.1–6.2% 2.8–6.8%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 3.6% 2.8–4.6% 2.6–5.0% 2.4–5.2% 2.1–5.8%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 3.4% 2.7–4.5% 2.5–4.8% 2.3–5.1% 2.0–5.6%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 1.1% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.6–2.2% 0.4–2.6%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 0.4% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.1–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 28 27–31 25–31 25–32 24–33
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 25 22–27 22–27 21–28 20–29
Socialni demokrati 10 11 10–13 9–14 9–14 9–15
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 9 8–11 7–11 7–11 7–12
Levica 9 9 8–10 7–10 7–11 6–12
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 4 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0 0 0 0
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 1.0% 99.7%  
25 4% 98.7%  
26 4% 94%  
27 17% 90%  
28 25% 73% Median
29 30% 48%  
30 8% 18%  
31 7% 10%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.5% 0.9%  
34 0.3% 0.4%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.8% 99.9%  
21 3% 99.1%  
22 8% 96%  
23 11% 88%  
24 9% 77%  
25 23% 68% Last Result, Median
26 26% 45%  
27 17% 20%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.7% 1.2%  
30 0.4% 0.5%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 8% 99.8%  
10 13% 91% Last Result
11 35% 78% Median
12 28% 43%  
13 8% 14%  
14 5% 6%  
15 1.3% 2%  
16 0.2% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 6% 99.8% Last Result
8 17% 93%  
9 38% 76% Median
10 20% 38%  
11 16% 18%  
12 1.5% 2%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 1.3% 99.9%  
7 8% 98.6%  
8 30% 91%  
9 47% 60% Last Result, Median
10 11% 14%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.8% 0.8%  
13 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 25% 100%  
1 0% 75%  
2 0% 75%  
3 11% 75%  
4 44% 64% Median
5 17% 19% Last Result
6 2% 3%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 69% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 31%  
2 0% 31%  
3 4% 31%  
4 26% 28%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Median
1 0% 26%  
2 0% 26%  
3 2% 26%  
4 23% 24% Last Result
5 1.3% 1.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 56 100% 53–59 52–60 51–60 50–61
Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka 38 53 100% 50–56 49–56 48–57 47–59
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 52 99.9% 49–55 49–56 48–56 47–58
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 50 52 99.9% 49–55 49–56 48–56 47–58
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 52 99.9% 49–55 49–56 48–56 47–58
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 49 91% 46–52 45–52 45–53 44–55
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 49 91% 46–52 45–52 45–53 44–55
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 42 10% 41–46 40–46 39–47 37–49
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 43 42 10% 41–46 40–46 39–47 37–49
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 42 10% 41–46 40–46 39–47 37–49
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 40 0.7% 37–42 37–43 36–45 35–46
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 40 0.7% 37–42 37–43 36–45 35–46
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 15 0% 12–17 11–18 10–18 9–19

Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100% Last Result
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100% Majority
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0.4% 99.8%  
51 2% 99.4%  
52 3% 97%  
53 4% 94%  
54 6% 90%  
55 13% 84%  
56 22% 70%  
57 15% 49% Median
58 15% 33%  
59 10% 19%  
60 7% 8%  
61 1.3% 2%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Slovenska demokratska stranka

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 100% Majority
47 2% 99.8%  
48 2% 98%  
49 3% 95%  
50 3% 92%  
51 11% 89%  
52 7% 78%  
53 22% 72% Median
54 20% 50%  
55 10% 30%  
56 16% 21%  
57 2% 5%  
58 1.4% 2%  
59 0.6% 1.0%  
60 0.3% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9% Majority
47 2% 99.7%  
48 1.1% 98%  
49 7% 97%  
50 19% 90%  
51 11% 70%  
52 16% 60% Median
53 18% 44%  
54 12% 26%  
55 7% 14%  
56 5% 7%  
57 2% 2%  
58 0.6% 0.9%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9% Majority
47 2% 99.7%  
48 1.1% 98%  
49 7% 97%  
50 19% 90% Last Result
51 11% 70%  
52 16% 60% Median
53 18% 44%  
54 12% 26%  
55 7% 14%  
56 5% 7%  
57 2% 2%  
58 0.6% 0.9%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100% Last Result
46 0.2% 99.9% Majority
47 2% 99.7%  
48 1.1% 98%  
49 7% 97%  
50 19% 90%  
51 11% 70%  
52 16% 60% Median
53 18% 44%  
54 12% 26%  
55 7% 14%  
56 5% 7%  
57 2% 2%  
58 0.6% 0.9%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 2% 99.7%  
45 7% 98%  
46 10% 91% Majority
47 13% 81%  
48 12% 69% Median
49 14% 56%  
50 10% 42%  
51 13% 32%  
52 15% 19%  
53 2% 5%  
54 2% 2%  
55 0.3% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100% Last Result
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 2% 99.7%  
45 7% 98%  
46 10% 91% Majority
47 13% 81%  
48 12% 69% Median
49 14% 56%  
50 10% 42%  
51 13% 32%  
52 15% 19%  
53 2% 5%  
54 2% 2%  
55 0.3% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 0.7% 99.5%  
39 3% 98.8%  
40 3% 96%  
41 30% 92%  
42 13% 62%  
43 8% 50% Median
44 18% 41%  
45 14% 24%  
46 6% 10% Majority
47 2% 4%  
48 1.2% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.8%  
50 0.3% 0.3%  
51 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 0.7% 99.5%  
39 3% 98.8%  
40 3% 96%  
41 30% 92%  
42 13% 62%  
43 8% 50% Last Result, Median
44 18% 41%  
45 14% 24%  
46 6% 10% Majority
47 2% 4%  
48 1.2% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.8%  
50 0.3% 0.3%  
51 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 0.7% 99.5% Last Result
39 3% 98.8%  
40 3% 96%  
41 30% 92%  
42 13% 62%  
43 8% 50% Median
44 18% 41%  
45 14% 24%  
46 6% 10% Majority
47 2% 4%  
48 1.2% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.8%  
50 0.3% 0.3%  
51 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0.3% 100%  
35 0.9% 99.7%  
36 3% 98.8%  
37 10% 95%  
38 19% 85%  
39 12% 66% Median
40 16% 54%  
41 23% 38%  
42 7% 16%  
43 6% 9%  
44 1.0% 4%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.5% 0.7% Majority
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0.3% 100%  
35 0.9% 99.7%  
36 3% 98.8%  
37 10% 95%  
38 19% 85%  
39 12% 66% Median
40 16% 54%  
41 23% 38%  
42 7% 16%  
43 6% 9%  
44 1.0% 4%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.5% 0.7% Majority
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.6% 100%  
10 2% 99.4%  
11 3% 97%  
12 14% 94%  
13 9% 80%  
14 20% 70%  
15 19% 51% Median
16 18% 31%  
17 7% 13%  
18 5% 6%  
19 1.0% 1.4%  
20 0.5% 0.5%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations