Opinion Poll by Parsifal for Nova 24TV, 19–20 February 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Slovenska demokratska stranka |
24.9% |
32.8% |
30.6–35.1% |
30.0–35.7% |
29.4–36.3% |
28.4–37.4% |
Lista Marjana Šarca |
12.6% |
23.6% |
21.7–25.7% |
21.1–26.3% |
20.7–26.9% |
19.8–27.9% |
Levica |
9.3% |
7.9% |
6.8–9.4% |
6.4–9.8% |
6.2–10.1% |
5.6–10.9% |
Socialni demokrati |
9.9% |
7.8% |
6.6–9.2% |
6.3–9.6% |
6.0–10.0% |
5.5–10.7% |
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije |
4.9% |
6.0% |
5.0–7.3% |
4.7–7.6% |
4.5–8.0% |
4.0–8.6% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati |
7.2% |
5.3% |
4.3–6.5% |
4.1–6.9% |
3.9–7.2% |
3.5–7.8% |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka |
4.2% |
4.4% |
3.6–5.6% |
3.4–5.9% |
3.2–6.2% |
2.8–6.8% |
Stranka modernega centra |
9.7% |
3.8% |
3.0–4.8% |
2.8–5.1% |
2.6–5.4% |
2.3–6.0% |
Slovenska ljudska stranka |
2.6% |
3.3% |
2.6–4.4% |
2.4–4.7% |
2.3–4.9% |
2.0–5.5% |
Stranka Alenke Bratušek |
5.1% |
1.2% |
0.9–2.0% |
0.7–2.2% |
0.7–2.4% |
0.5–2.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Slovenska demokratska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
26 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
27 |
0.6% |
99.7% |
|
28 |
4% |
99.2% |
|
29 |
5% |
96% |
|
30 |
16% |
91% |
|
31 |
25% |
75% |
Median |
32 |
13% |
50% |
|
33 |
15% |
37% |
|
34 |
7% |
22% |
|
35 |
8% |
15% |
|
36 |
2% |
8% |
|
37 |
2% |
6% |
|
38 |
3% |
4% |
|
39 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
Lista Marjana Šarca
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
19 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
20 |
6% |
98% |
|
21 |
9% |
91% |
|
22 |
18% |
83% |
|
23 |
23% |
64% |
Median |
24 |
22% |
41% |
|
25 |
12% |
20% |
|
26 |
4% |
8% |
|
27 |
2% |
3% |
|
28 |
0.9% |
1.1% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Levica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
5% |
100% |
|
6 |
15% |
95% |
|
7 |
29% |
80% |
|
8 |
37% |
50% |
Median |
9 |
10% |
13% |
Last Result |
10 |
2% |
3% |
|
11 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialni demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
5 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
23% |
97% |
|
7 |
26% |
74% |
Median |
8 |
33% |
48% |
|
9 |
12% |
15% |
|
10 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
11 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
2 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
3 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
4 |
16% |
99.4% |
|
5 |
40% |
83% |
Last Result, Median |
6 |
27% |
44% |
|
7 |
14% |
16% |
|
8 |
2% |
2% |
|
9 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
3% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
97% |
|
2 |
0% |
97% |
|
3 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
4 |
35% |
96% |
|
5 |
37% |
61% |
Median |
6 |
17% |
24% |
|
7 |
6% |
6% |
Last Result |
8 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Slovenska nacionalna stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
23% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
77% |
|
2 |
0% |
77% |
|
3 |
2% |
77% |
|
4 |
49% |
75% |
Last Result, Median |
5 |
22% |
26% |
|
6 |
3% |
4% |
|
7 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Stranka modernega centra
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
57% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
43% |
|
2 |
0% |
43% |
|
3 |
5% |
43% |
|
4 |
31% |
38% |
|
5 |
7% |
7% |
|
6 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Slovenska ljudska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
83% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
17% |
|
2 |
0% |
17% |
|
3 |
1.4% |
17% |
|
4 |
14% |
16% |
|
5 |
2% |
2% |
|
6 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Stranka Alenke Bratušek
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije |
43 |
60 |
100% |
57–65 |
56–66 |
55–67 |
54–69 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca |
38 |
55 |
100% |
52–59 |
51–61 |
50–62 |
49–62 |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek |
50 |
42 |
11% |
39–46 |
38–47 |
38–48 |
35–50 |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra |
45 |
42 |
11% |
39–46 |
38–47 |
38–48 |
35–50 |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati |
35 |
41 |
2% |
37–44 |
37–45 |
36–45 |
34–47 |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek |
43 |
37 |
0.1% |
35–41 |
34–42 |
33–43 |
32–45 |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra |
38 |
37 |
0.1% |
35–41 |
34–42 |
33–43 |
32–45 |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra |
40 |
37 |
0.1% |
34–41 |
33–41 |
32–42 |
30–43 |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije |
28 |
36 |
0% |
33–39 |
32–40 |
32–41 |
30–42 |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati |
30 |
35 |
0% |
32–39 |
32–40 |
31–40 |
29–41 |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra |
33 |
32 |
0% |
29–36 |
28–37 |
28–37 |
27–38 |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati |
23 |
30 |
0% |
28–33 |
27–34 |
27–35 |
25–36 |
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra |
25 |
14 |
0% |
12–18 |
11–18 |
11–19 |
10–20 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
43 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
44 |
0% |
100% |
|
45 |
0% |
100% |
|
46 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
47 |
0% |
100% |
|
48 |
0% |
100% |
|
49 |
0% |
100% |
|
50 |
0% |
100% |
|
51 |
0% |
100% |
|
52 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
53 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
54 |
1.0% |
99.7% |
|
55 |
2% |
98.7% |
|
56 |
3% |
97% |
|
57 |
6% |
94% |
|
58 |
13% |
89% |
|
59 |
18% |
75% |
Median |
60 |
15% |
57% |
|
61 |
9% |
42% |
|
62 |
12% |
34% |
|
63 |
4% |
22% |
|
64 |
5% |
17% |
|
65 |
5% |
12% |
|
66 |
3% |
7% |
|
67 |
3% |
5% |
|
68 |
0.6% |
1.5% |
|
69 |
0.6% |
0.9% |
|
70 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
71 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
38 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
39 |
0% |
100% |
|
40 |
0% |
100% |
|
41 |
0% |
100% |
|
42 |
0% |
100% |
|
43 |
0% |
100% |
|
44 |
0% |
100% |
|
45 |
0% |
100% |
|
46 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
47 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
48 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
49 |
1.2% |
99.5% |
|
50 |
2% |
98% |
|
51 |
3% |
97% |
|
52 |
13% |
93% |
|
53 |
9% |
80% |
|
54 |
17% |
71% |
Median |
55 |
15% |
54% |
|
56 |
16% |
39% |
|
57 |
4% |
23% |
|
58 |
5% |
19% |
|
59 |
5% |
14% |
|
60 |
3% |
9% |
|
61 |
1.1% |
6% |
|
62 |
4% |
4% |
|
63 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
64 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
35 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
36 |
0.5% |
99.5% |
|
37 |
1.2% |
99.0% |
|
38 |
3% |
98% |
|
39 |
8% |
95% |
|
40 |
10% |
87% |
Median |
41 |
15% |
77% |
|
42 |
20% |
62% |
|
43 |
7% |
42% |
|
44 |
9% |
35% |
|
45 |
16% |
27% |
|
46 |
5% |
11% |
Majority |
47 |
3% |
6% |
|
48 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
49 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
50 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
Last Result |
51 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
52 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
35 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
36 |
0.5% |
99.5% |
|
37 |
1.2% |
99.0% |
|
38 |
3% |
98% |
|
39 |
8% |
95% |
|
40 |
10% |
87% |
Median |
41 |
15% |
77% |
|
42 |
20% |
62% |
|
43 |
7% |
42% |
|
44 |
9% |
35% |
|
45 |
16% |
27% |
Last Result |
46 |
5% |
11% |
Majority |
47 |
3% |
6% |
|
48 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
49 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
50 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
51 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
52 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
33 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
34 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
35 |
1.1% |
99.3% |
Last Result |
36 |
2% |
98% |
|
37 |
10% |
96% |
|
38 |
7% |
86% |
|
39 |
11% |
80% |
|
40 |
16% |
69% |
Median |
41 |
13% |
53% |
|
42 |
21% |
40% |
|
43 |
5% |
19% |
|
44 |
5% |
14% |
|
45 |
7% |
9% |
|
46 |
1.0% |
2% |
Majority |
47 |
1.0% |
1.4% |
|
48 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
49 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
50 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
32 |
1.2% |
99.7% |
|
33 |
2% |
98% |
|
34 |
5% |
96% |
|
35 |
13% |
91% |
Median |
36 |
9% |
78% |
|
37 |
26% |
69% |
|
38 |
12% |
43% |
|
39 |
7% |
31% |
|
40 |
8% |
25% |
|
41 |
9% |
17% |
|
42 |
5% |
9% |
|
43 |
2% |
3% |
Last Result |
44 |
0.6% |
1.4% |
|
45 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Majority |
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
32 |
1.2% |
99.7% |
|
33 |
2% |
98% |
|
34 |
5% |
96% |
|
35 |
13% |
91% |
Median |
36 |
9% |
78% |
|
37 |
26% |
69% |
|
38 |
12% |
43% |
Last Result |
39 |
7% |
31% |
|
40 |
8% |
25% |
|
41 |
9% |
17% |
|
42 |
5% |
9% |
|
43 |
2% |
3% |
|
44 |
0.6% |
1.4% |
|
45 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Majority |
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
31 |
1.0% |
99.4% |
|
32 |
3% |
98% |
|
33 |
5% |
96% |
|
34 |
8% |
90% |
|
35 |
14% |
83% |
Median |
36 |
14% |
69% |
|
37 |
17% |
55% |
|
38 |
7% |
38% |
|
39 |
7% |
30% |
|
40 |
12% |
23% |
Last Result |
41 |
8% |
11% |
|
42 |
2% |
4% |
|
43 |
2% |
2% |
|
44 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
45 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Majority |
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
30 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
31 |
1.5% |
99.4% |
|
32 |
4% |
98% |
|
33 |
13% |
94% |
|
34 |
10% |
81% |
|
35 |
14% |
71% |
Median |
36 |
14% |
58% |
|
37 |
20% |
43% |
|
38 |
13% |
23% |
|
39 |
5% |
11% |
|
40 |
2% |
5% |
|
41 |
2% |
3% |
|
42 |
1.1% |
1.4% |
|
43 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
44 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
45 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
30 |
1.4% |
99.3% |
Last Result |
31 |
3% |
98% |
|
32 |
7% |
95% |
|
33 |
15% |
88% |
|
34 |
10% |
73% |
|
35 |
20% |
63% |
Median |
36 |
12% |
42% |
|
37 |
14% |
30% |
|
38 |
6% |
16% |
|
39 |
4% |
11% |
|
40 |
5% |
7% |
|
41 |
0.8% |
1.3% |
|
42 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
43 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
1.2% |
99.5% |
|
28 |
5% |
98% |
|
29 |
8% |
93% |
|
30 |
13% |
85% |
Median |
31 |
14% |
72% |
|
32 |
15% |
58% |
|
33 |
16% |
43% |
Last Result |
34 |
6% |
27% |
|
35 |
5% |
21% |
|
36 |
10% |
16% |
|
37 |
4% |
6% |
|
38 |
2% |
2% |
|
39 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
40 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
27 |
4% |
98% |
|
28 |
12% |
93% |
|
29 |
18% |
81% |
|
30 |
13% |
62% |
Median |
31 |
17% |
50% |
|
32 |
14% |
32% |
|
33 |
11% |
18% |
|
34 |
4% |
7% |
|
35 |
1.5% |
3% |
|
36 |
1.0% |
1.4% |
|
37 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
38 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
10 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
11 |
5% |
98% |
|
12 |
9% |
93% |
Median |
13 |
17% |
84% |
|
14 |
21% |
67% |
|
15 |
16% |
46% |
|
16 |
10% |
30% |
|
17 |
9% |
21% |
|
18 |
8% |
11% |
|
19 |
1.4% |
3% |
|
20 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
21 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Parsifal
- Commissioner(s): Nova 24TV
- Fieldwork period: 19–20 February 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 720
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.06%