Opinion Poll by Parsifal for Nova 24TV, 19–20 February 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 32.8% 30.6–35.1% 30.0–35.7% 29.4–36.3% 28.4–37.4%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 23.6% 21.7–25.7% 21.1–26.3% 20.7–26.9% 19.8–27.9%
Levica 9.3% 7.9% 6.8–9.4% 6.4–9.8% 6.2–10.1% 5.6–10.9%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 7.8% 6.6–9.2% 6.3–9.6% 6.0–10.0% 5.5–10.7%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 6.0% 5.0–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.5–8.0% 4.0–8.6%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 5.3% 4.3–6.5% 4.1–6.9% 3.9–7.2% 3.5–7.8%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 4.4% 3.6–5.6% 3.4–5.9% 3.2–6.2% 2.8–6.8%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 3.8% 3.0–4.8% 2.8–5.1% 2.6–5.4% 2.3–6.0%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 3.3% 2.6–4.4% 2.4–4.7% 2.3–4.9% 2.0–5.5%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 1.2% 0.9–2.0% 0.7–2.2% 0.7–2.4% 0.5–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 31 30–35 29–37 28–38 27–38
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 23 21–25 20–26 20–27 19–28
Levica 9 8 6–9 6–9 5–10 5–11
Socialni demokrati 10 7 6–9 6–9 5–10 5–10
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 5 4–7 4–7 4–7 3–8
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 5 4–6 4–7 0–7 0–7
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 4 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100% Last Result
26 0.3% 100%  
27 0.6% 99.7%  
28 4% 99.2%  
29 5% 96%  
30 16% 91%  
31 25% 75% Median
32 13% 50%  
33 15% 37%  
34 7% 22%  
35 8% 15%  
36 2% 8%  
37 2% 6%  
38 3% 4%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.2% 100%  
19 2% 99.7%  
20 6% 98%  
21 9% 91%  
22 18% 83%  
23 23% 64% Median
24 22% 41%  
25 12% 20%  
26 4% 8%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.9% 1.1%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 5% 100%  
6 15% 95%  
7 29% 80%  
8 37% 50% Median
9 10% 13% Last Result
10 2% 3%  
11 0.6% 0.6%  
12 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 3% 99.9%  
6 23% 97%  
7 26% 74% Median
8 33% 48%  
9 12% 15%  
10 3% 3% Last Result
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 0% 99.6%  
2 0% 99.6%  
3 0.2% 99.6%  
4 16% 99.4%  
5 40% 83% Last Result, Median
6 27% 44%  
7 14% 16%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0.6% 97%  
4 35% 96%  
5 37% 61% Median
6 17% 24%  
7 6% 6% Last Result
8 0.2% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 23% 100%  
1 0% 77%  
2 0% 77%  
3 2% 77%  
4 49% 75% Last Result, Median
5 22% 26%  
6 3% 4%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 57% 100% Median
1 0% 43%  
2 0% 43%  
3 5% 43%  
4 31% 38%  
5 7% 7%  
6 0.3% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 17%  
2 0% 17%  
3 1.4% 17%  
4 14% 16%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 60 100% 57–65 56–66 55–67 54–69
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 55 100% 52–59 51–61 50–62 49–62
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek 50 42 11% 39–46 38–47 38–48 35–50
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 45 42 11% 39–46 38–47 38–48 35–50
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 35 41 2% 37–44 37–45 36–45 34–47
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek 43 37 0.1% 35–41 34–42 33–43 32–45
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 37 0.1% 35–41 34–42 33–43 32–45
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 37 0.1% 34–41 33–41 32–42 30–43
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 36 0% 33–39 32–40 32–41 30–42
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 35 0% 32–39 32–40 31–40 29–41
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 32 0% 29–36 28–37 28–37 27–38
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 30 0% 28–33 27–34 27–35 25–36
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 14 0% 12–18 11–18 11–19 10–20

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100% Last Result
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100% Majority
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 1.0% 99.7%  
55 2% 98.7%  
56 3% 97%  
57 6% 94%  
58 13% 89%  
59 18% 75% Median
60 15% 57%  
61 9% 42%  
62 12% 34%  
63 4% 22%  
64 5% 17%  
65 5% 12%  
66 3% 7%  
67 3% 5%  
68 0.6% 1.5%  
69 0.6% 0.9%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100% Majority
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.8%  
49 1.2% 99.5%  
50 2% 98%  
51 3% 97%  
52 13% 93%  
53 9% 80%  
54 17% 71% Median
55 15% 54%  
56 16% 39%  
57 4% 23%  
58 5% 19%  
59 5% 14%  
60 3% 9%  
61 1.1% 6%  
62 4% 4%  
63 0.2% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.3% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.7%  
36 0.5% 99.5%  
37 1.2% 99.0%  
38 3% 98%  
39 8% 95%  
40 10% 87% Median
41 15% 77%  
42 20% 62%  
43 7% 42%  
44 9% 35%  
45 16% 27%  
46 5% 11% Majority
47 3% 6%  
48 0.6% 3%  
49 1.3% 2%  
50 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.3% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.7%  
36 0.5% 99.5%  
37 1.2% 99.0%  
38 3% 98%  
39 8% 95%  
40 10% 87% Median
41 15% 77%  
42 20% 62%  
43 7% 42%  
44 9% 35%  
45 16% 27% Last Result
46 5% 11% Majority
47 3% 6%  
48 0.6% 3%  
49 1.3% 2%  
50 0.6% 0.7%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.6% 99.9%  
35 1.1% 99.3% Last Result
36 2% 98%  
37 10% 96%  
38 7% 86%  
39 11% 80%  
40 16% 69% Median
41 13% 53%  
42 21% 40%  
43 5% 19%  
44 5% 14%  
45 7% 9%  
46 1.0% 2% Majority
47 1.0% 1.4%  
48 0.2% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 1.2% 99.7%  
33 2% 98%  
34 5% 96%  
35 13% 91% Median
36 9% 78%  
37 26% 69%  
38 12% 43%  
39 7% 31%  
40 8% 25%  
41 9% 17%  
42 5% 9%  
43 2% 3% Last Result
44 0.6% 1.4%  
45 0.7% 0.8%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 1.2% 99.7%  
33 2% 98%  
34 5% 96%  
35 13% 91% Median
36 9% 78%  
37 26% 69%  
38 12% 43% Last Result
39 7% 31%  
40 8% 25%  
41 9% 17%  
42 5% 9%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.6% 1.4%  
45 0.7% 0.8%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 0.2% 99.7%  
31 1.0% 99.4%  
32 3% 98%  
33 5% 96%  
34 8% 90%  
35 14% 83% Median
36 14% 69%  
37 17% 55%  
38 7% 38%  
39 7% 30%  
40 12% 23% Last Result
41 8% 11%  
42 2% 4%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0.1% 0.3%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.9%  
31 1.5% 99.4%  
32 4% 98%  
33 13% 94%  
34 10% 81%  
35 14% 71% Median
36 14% 58%  
37 20% 43%  
38 13% 23%  
39 5% 11%  
40 2% 5%  
41 2% 3%  
42 1.1% 1.4%  
43 0.1% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.3%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Majority

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.5% 99.8%  
30 1.4% 99.3% Last Result
31 3% 98%  
32 7% 95%  
33 15% 88%  
34 10% 73%  
35 20% 63% Median
36 12% 42%  
37 14% 30%  
38 6% 16%  
39 4% 11%  
40 5% 7%  
41 0.8% 1.3%  
42 0.2% 0.4%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.9%  
27 1.2% 99.5%  
28 5% 98%  
29 8% 93%  
30 13% 85% Median
31 14% 72%  
32 15% 58%  
33 16% 43% Last Result
34 6% 27%  
35 5% 21%  
36 10% 16%  
37 4% 6%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.2% 0.4%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.9%  
26 2% 99.5%  
27 4% 98%  
28 12% 93%  
29 18% 81%  
30 13% 62% Median
31 17% 50%  
32 14% 32%  
33 11% 18%  
34 4% 7%  
35 1.5% 3%  
36 1.0% 1.4%  
37 0.2% 0.4%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.1% 99.9%  
10 2% 99.7%  
11 5% 98%  
12 9% 93% Median
13 17% 84%  
14 21% 67%  
15 16% 46%  
16 10% 30%  
17 9% 21%  
18 8% 11%  
19 1.4% 3%  
20 1.2% 2%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations