Opinion Poll by Mediana for POPTV, 26 April 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 24.9% | 30.5% | 28.4–32.7% | 27.8–33.4% | 27.3–33.9% | 26.3–35.0% |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 12.6% | 18.8% | 17.0–20.7% | 16.5–21.2% | 16.1–21.7% | 15.3–22.7% |
| Levica | 9.3% | 12.3% | 10.9–14.0% | 10.5–14.4% | 10.1–14.8% | 9.5–15.7% |
| Socialni demokrati | 9.9% | 10.7% | 9.3–12.3% | 8.9–12.7% | 8.6–13.1% | 8.0–13.9% |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 4.9% | 8.2% | 7.1–9.7% | 6.7–10.1% | 6.5–10.4% | 5.9–11.2% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.3–7.7% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.8–8.3% | 4.4–9.0% |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.0–6.0% | 3.7–6.4% | 3.5–6.7% | 3.2–7.3% |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.6–5.6% | 3.4–5.9% | 3.2–6.2% | 2.8–6.8% |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.4% | 1.0–2.6% | 0.9–2.8% | 0.7–3.2% |
| Stranka modernega centra | 9.7% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.2% | 0.9–2.5% | 0.8–2.6% | 0.7–3.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 25 | 29 | 27–31 | 26–31 | 26–33 | 25–34 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 13 | 18 | 16–19 | 15–20 | 15–21 | 14–21 |
| Levica | 9 | 12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–14 | 9–14 |
| Socialni demokrati | 10 | 10 | 9–11 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 7–13 |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 5 | 7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7 | 5 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5 | 4 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4 | 4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stranka modernega centra | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 26 | 4% | 98% | |
| 27 | 16% | 94% | |
| 28 | 20% | 78% | |
| 29 | 23% | 57% | Median |
| 30 | 19% | 34% | |
| 31 | 11% | 15% | |
| 32 | 2% | 4% | |
| 33 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 34 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 14 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 5% | 98% | |
| 16 | 12% | 93% | |
| 17 | 16% | 80% | |
| 18 | 31% | 65% | Median |
| 19 | 26% | 34% | |
| 20 | 5% | 8% | |
| 21 | 3% | 4% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Levica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 9 | 4% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 10 | 18% | 96% | |
| 11 | 23% | 77% | |
| 12 | 36% | 54% | Median |
| 13 | 13% | 18% | |
| 14 | 4% | 5% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 8 | 9% | 99.2% | |
| 9 | 27% | 91% | |
| 10 | 39% | 64% | Last Result, Median |
| 11 | 19% | 25% | |
| 12 | 5% | 6% | |
| 13 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 20% | 98% | |
| 7 | 29% | 78% | Median |
| 8 | 35% | 49% | |
| 9 | 12% | 14% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 7% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 51% | 93% | Median |
| 6 | 28% | 42% | |
| 7 | 11% | 15% | Last Result |
| 8 | 3% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka Alenke Bratušek
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 84% | |
| 2 | 0% | 84% | |
| 3 | 1.2% | 84% | |
| 4 | 51% | 82% | Median |
| 5 | 26% | 31% | Last Result |
| 6 | 5% | 5% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 79% | |
| 2 | 0% | 79% | |
| 3 | 3% | 79% | |
| 4 | 57% | 77% | Last Result, Median |
| 5 | 18% | 20% | |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska ljudska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Stranka modernega centra
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 43 | 54 | 100% | 51–57 | 50–57 | 50–58 | 49–61 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca | 38 | 47 | 69% | 44–49 | 43–49 | 42–50 | 41–53 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra | 50 | 44 | 28% | 41–47 | 41–49 | 41–49 | 39–50 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 35 | 41 | 2% | 38–44 | 37–45 | 37–45 | 36–47 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra | 45 | 41 | 2% | 38–44 | 37–45 | 37–45 | 36–47 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra | 43 | 39 | 0% | 36–41 | 36–42 | 35–44 | 33–44 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 28 | 35 | 0% | 32–38 | 32–38 | 31–40 | 31–40 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 38 | 35 | 0% | 32–38 | 32–38 | 31–40 | 31–40 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 30 | 33 | 0% | 30–37 | 30–37 | 30–37 | 29–38 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra | 40 | 33 | 0% | 30–37 | 30–37 | 30–37 | 29–38 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati | 23 | 28 | 0% | 25–30 | 25–31 | 24–32 | 23–32 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra | 33 | 28 | 0% | 25–30 | 25–31 | 24–32 | 23–32 |
| Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 25 | 17 | 0% | 15–19 | 15–19 | 15–20 | 14–21 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 49 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 50 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 51 | 5% | 94% | |
| 52 | 11% | 89% | |
| 53 | 16% | 79% | |
| 54 | 26% | 62% | Median |
| 55 | 12% | 36% | |
| 56 | 10% | 24% | |
| 57 | 11% | 14% | |
| 58 | 2% | 4% | |
| 59 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 61 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 43 | 3% | 96% | |
| 44 | 7% | 93% | |
| 45 | 17% | 86% | |
| 46 | 13% | 69% | Majority |
| 47 | 17% | 55% | Median |
| 48 | 20% | 39% | |
| 49 | 14% | 18% | |
| 50 | 3% | 5% | |
| 51 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 52 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 53 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 40 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 41 | 12% | 98% | |
| 42 | 5% | 86% | |
| 43 | 20% | 82% | |
| 44 | 16% | 62% | Median |
| 45 | 19% | 47% | |
| 46 | 16% | 28% | Majority |
| 47 | 4% | 12% | |
| 48 | 2% | 7% | |
| 49 | 4% | 5% | |
| 50 | 0.8% | 1.2% | Last Result |
| 51 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 36 | 1.4% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 6% | 98% | |
| 38 | 9% | 92% | |
| 39 | 14% | 83% | |
| 40 | 11% | 69% | Median |
| 41 | 33% | 57% | |
| 42 | 9% | 25% | |
| 43 | 3% | 15% | |
| 44 | 7% | 12% | |
| 45 | 4% | 6% | |
| 46 | 1.0% | 2% | Majority |
| 47 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 36 | 1.4% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 6% | 98% | |
| 38 | 9% | 92% | |
| 39 | 14% | 83% | |
| 40 | 11% | 69% | Median |
| 41 | 33% | 57% | |
| 42 | 9% | 25% | |
| 43 | 3% | 15% | |
| 44 | 7% | 12% | |
| 45 | 4% | 6% | Last Result |
| 46 | 1.0% | 2% | Majority |
| 47 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 34 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 35 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 36 | 14% | 97% | |
| 37 | 9% | 83% | |
| 38 | 24% | 74% | |
| 39 | 13% | 50% | Median |
| 40 | 15% | 37% | |
| 41 | 13% | 22% | |
| 42 | 5% | 9% | |
| 43 | 1.4% | 4% | Last Result |
| 44 | 2% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 32 | 9% | 97% | |
| 33 | 11% | 89% | |
| 34 | 19% | 78% | |
| 35 | 12% | 59% | Median |
| 36 | 30% | 47% | |
| 37 | 5% | 17% | |
| 38 | 7% | 12% | |
| 39 | 2% | 5% | |
| 40 | 2% | 3% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 32 | 9% | 97% | |
| 33 | 11% | 89% | |
| 34 | 19% | 78% | |
| 35 | 12% | 59% | Median |
| 36 | 30% | 47% | |
| 37 | 5% | 17% | |
| 38 | 7% | 12% | Last Result |
| 39 | 2% | 5% | |
| 40 | 2% | 3% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 9% | 98% | Last Result |
| 31 | 10% | 89% | |
| 32 | 11% | 79% | |
| 33 | 31% | 68% | Median |
| 34 | 16% | 37% | |
| 35 | 8% | 22% | |
| 36 | 3% | 13% | |
| 37 | 8% | 10% | |
| 38 | 2% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 9% | 98% | |
| 31 | 10% | 89% | |
| 32 | 11% | 79% | |
| 33 | 31% | 68% | Median |
| 34 | 16% | 37% | |
| 35 | 8% | 22% | |
| 36 | 3% | 13% | |
| 37 | 8% | 10% | |
| 38 | 2% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.5% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 24 | 4% | 99.4% | |
| 25 | 10% | 96% | |
| 26 | 9% | 85% | |
| 27 | 15% | 76% | |
| 28 | 39% | 61% | Median |
| 29 | 6% | 22% | |
| 30 | 9% | 16% | |
| 31 | 4% | 7% | |
| 32 | 3% | 3% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 4% | 99.4% | |
| 25 | 10% | 96% | |
| 26 | 9% | 85% | |
| 27 | 15% | 76% | |
| 28 | 39% | 61% | Median |
| 29 | 6% | 22% | |
| 30 | 9% | 16% | |
| 31 | 4% | 7% | |
| 32 | 3% | 3% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 34 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 14% | 99.1% | |
| 16 | 17% | 86% | |
| 17 | 24% | 69% | Median |
| 18 | 24% | 45% | |
| 19 | 16% | 21% | |
| 20 | 3% | 5% | |
| 21 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Mediana
- Commissioner(s): POPTV
- Fieldwork period: 26 April 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 741
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.22%