Opinion Poll by Mediana for Delo, 4–8 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 25.3% 23.3–27.4% 22.7–28.1% 22.2–28.6% 21.3–29.7%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 21.8% 19.9–23.9% 19.3–24.4% 18.9–25.0% 18.0–26.0%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 13.1% 11.6–14.8% 11.1–15.3% 10.8–15.7% 10.1–16.6%
Levica 9.3% 12.4% 10.9–14.1% 10.5–14.6% 10.1–15.0% 9.5–15.9%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 8.1% 7.0–9.6% 6.6–10.0% 6.4–10.4% 5.8–11.1%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 5.3% 4.4–6.6% 4.1–6.9% 3.9–7.3% 3.5–7.9%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 3.7% 2.9–4.7% 2.7–5.0% 2.5–5.3% 2.2–5.9%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 2.8% 2.2–3.8% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.3% 1.6–4.8%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 1.4% 1.0–2.2% 0.9–2.4% 0.8–2.6% 0.6–3.0%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.0% 0.0–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 24 22–26 21–27 21–27 20–29
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 20 19–22 18–23 18–24 17–25
Socialni demokrati 10 13 11–14 10–14 10–15 9–16
Levica 9 12 10–13 9–14 9–14 9–15
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 8 7–9 6–9 6–10 5–10
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 5 4–6 4–6 0–7 0–7
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 1.0% 99.8%  
21 4% 98.7%  
22 13% 95%  
23 30% 82%  
24 24% 53% Median
25 15% 29% Last Result
26 6% 14%  
27 6% 8%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.5% 0.7%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.3% 100%  
17 1.3% 99.6%  
18 5% 98%  
19 11% 93%  
20 51% 82% Median
21 9% 31%  
22 14% 21%  
23 4% 7%  
24 1.4% 3%  
25 1.2% 2%  
26 0.4% 0.4%  
27 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 1.5% 100%  
10 7% 98% Last Result
11 12% 92%  
12 29% 80%  
13 35% 51% Median
14 14% 16%  
15 2% 3%  
16 1.0% 1.1%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.4% 100%  
9 5% 99.6% Last Result
10 12% 95%  
11 32% 83%  
12 31% 51% Median
13 15% 20%  
14 4% 6%  
15 1.0% 1.1%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.5% 100%  
6 7% 98%  
7 33% 91% Last Result
8 41% 58% Median
9 13% 17%  
10 4% 4%  
11 0.4% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 1.2% 97%  
4 37% 96%  
5 32% 58% Last Result, Median
6 23% 26%  
7 3% 4%  
8 0.2% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 50% 100% Median
1 0% 50%  
2 0% 50%  
3 7% 50%  
4 39% 42%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 1.0% 4%  
4 3% 3% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 49 98% 47–52 46–52 46–53 44–55
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek 50 47 81% 44–50 43–50 42–51 41–52
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 45 47 81% 44–50 43–50 42–51 41–52
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 35 45 46% 43–48 42–49 41–50 40–51
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 44 24% 42–47 42–48 41–49 39–50
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 43 4% 40–45 38–45 38–46 36–47
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 41 1.2% 38–43 38–44 37–45 36–46
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek 43 40 0.1% 36–42 36–42 35–43 34–45
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 40 0.1% 36–42 36–42 35–43 34–45
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 37 0% 35–40 34–41 34–42 32–43
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 35 0% 32–37 31–37 30–38 29–40
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 33 0% 31–35 30–36 29–37 28–38
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 19 0% 16–22 15–22 14–22 12–24

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
44 0.4% 99.6%  
45 1.2% 99.2%  
46 6% 98% Majority
47 20% 92%  
48 22% 73%  
49 15% 51% Median
50 10% 35%  
51 11% 26%  
52 9% 14%  
53 3% 5%  
54 1.0% 2%  
55 0.8% 0.9%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.3% 100%  
41 1.2% 99.7%  
42 1.1% 98%  
43 4% 97%  
44 5% 93%  
45 7% 88%  
46 12% 81% Median, Majority
47 27% 69%  
48 11% 42%  
49 16% 31%  
50 12% 15% Last Result
51 2% 3%  
52 0.8% 1.0%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.3% 100%  
41 1.2% 99.7%  
42 1.1% 98%  
43 4% 97%  
44 5% 93%  
45 7% 88% Last Result
46 12% 81% Median, Majority
47 27% 69%  
48 11% 42%  
49 16% 31%  
50 12% 15%  
51 2% 3%  
52 0.8% 1.0%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.7% 99.7%  
41 3% 99.0%  
42 3% 96%  
43 17% 93%  
44 13% 76%  
45 16% 62%  
46 21% 46% Median, Majority
47 13% 25%  
48 6% 13%  
49 2% 7%  
50 3% 5%  
51 1.1% 1.3%  
52 0.2% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100% Last Result
39 0.3% 99.8%  
40 0.7% 99.5%  
41 4% 98.8%  
42 10% 95%  
43 29% 85%  
44 19% 56% Median
45 14% 37%  
46 12% 24% Majority
47 5% 12%  
48 3% 7%  
49 2% 3%  
50 1.2% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.5%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.5% 100%  
37 0.7% 99.4%  
38 5% 98.7%  
39 3% 94%  
40 12% 91% Last Result
41 13% 79% Median
42 11% 66%  
43 22% 55%  
44 10% 33%  
45 19% 23%  
46 2% 4% Majority
47 1.1% 1.5%  
48 0.2% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.8%  
36 2% 99.5%  
37 3% 98%  
38 8% 95%  
39 18% 87%  
40 19% 69%  
41 25% 50% Median
42 11% 25%  
43 5% 13%  
44 5% 8%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.9% 1.2% Majority
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra – Stranka Alenke Bratušek

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 2% 99.6%  
35 3% 98%  
36 6% 95%  
37 8% 89%  
38 15% 82% Median
39 10% 67%  
40 21% 57%  
41 18% 36%  
42 14% 18%  
43 2% 4% Last Result
44 1.1% 2%  
45 0.6% 0.8%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 2% 99.6%  
35 3% 98%  
36 6% 95%  
37 8% 89%  
38 15% 82% Last Result, Median
39 10% 67%  
40 21% 57%  
41 18% 36%  
42 14% 18%  
43 2% 4%  
44 1.1% 2%  
45 0.6% 0.8%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Majority
47 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.8%  
33 0.8% 99.5%  
34 5% 98.7%  
35 6% 93%  
36 18% 88%  
37 22% 70%  
38 21% 48% Median
39 10% 27%  
40 9% 17%  
41 3% 8%  
42 4% 4%  
43 0.5% 0.8%  
44 0.3% 0.4%  
45 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0.8% 99.7%  
30 2% 99.0%  
31 5% 97%  
32 12% 92%  
33 9% 79% Last Result, Median
34 16% 71%  
35 8% 55%  
36 21% 47%  
37 21% 26%  
38 3% 5%  
39 1.1% 2%  
40 0.8% 0.9%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.2% 100%  
28 0.8% 99.8%  
29 2% 99.0%  
30 5% 97%  
31 10% 91%  
32 25% 82%  
33 29% 56% Median
34 13% 27%  
35 6% 14%  
36 6% 9%  
37 1.4% 3%  
38 0.9% 1.2%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 1.1% 99.8%  
13 0.5% 98.7%  
14 1.4% 98%  
15 5% 97%  
16 5% 92%  
17 5% 87%  
18 21% 82% Median
19 13% 61%  
20 17% 47%  
21 14% 30%  
22 13% 16%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.5% 0.6%  
25 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
26 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations