Opinion Poll by Parsifal for Nova 24TV, 6–8 May 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 24.9% | 30.5% | 28.5–32.7% | 27.9–33.3% | 27.4–33.9% | 26.4–34.9% |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 12.6% | 17.9% | 16.2–19.8% | 15.8–20.3% | 15.4–20.8% | 14.6–21.7% |
| Socialni demokrati | 9.9% | 12.8% | 11.3–14.4% | 10.9–14.9% | 10.6–15.3% | 9.9–16.1% |
| Levica | 9.3% | 9.5% | 8.3–11.0% | 8.0–11.4% | 7.7–11.8% | 7.1–12.6% |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.4–7.7% | 5.2–8.1% | 4.9–8.4% | 4.5–9.1% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.2–7.4% | 4.9–7.8% | 4.7–8.1% | 4.3–8.7% |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4.2% | 5.8% | 4.8–7.0% | 4.6–7.4% | 4.4–7.7% | 3.9–8.3% |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5.1% | 3.7% | 3.0–4.8% | 2.8–5.1% | 2.6–5.3% | 2.3–5.9% |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.2–3.8% | 2.0–4.0% | 1.9–4.3% | 1.6–4.8% |
| Stranka modernega centra | 9.7% | 0.3% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.0–1.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka | 25 | 29 | 27–32 | 27–33 | 26–33 | 25–34 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca | 13 | 17 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 14–20 | 14–21 |
| Socialni demokrati | 10 | 12 | 10–13 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 9–15 |
| Levica | 9 | 9 | 8–10 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 7–12 |
| Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 5 | 6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 7 | 6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka | 4 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 3–8 |
| Stranka Alenke Bratušek | 5 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Stranka modernega centra | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 26 | 2% | 98% | |
| 27 | 16% | 96% | |
| 28 | 23% | 80% | |
| 29 | 19% | 57% | Median |
| 30 | 17% | 38% | |
| 31 | 11% | 21% | |
| 32 | 3% | 10% | |
| 33 | 6% | 7% | |
| 34 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 14 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 15% | 97% | |
| 16 | 17% | 81% | |
| 17 | 28% | 64% | Median |
| 18 | 24% | 37% | |
| 19 | 8% | 12% | |
| 20 | 3% | 4% | |
| 21 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 2% | 100% | |
| 10 | 17% | 98% | Last Result |
| 11 | 18% | 81% | |
| 12 | 31% | 63% | Median |
| 13 | 22% | 32% | |
| 14 | 8% | 10% | |
| 15 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Levica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 7 | 7% | 99.6% | |
| 8 | 20% | 92% | |
| 9 | 42% | 72% | Last Result, Median |
| 10 | 24% | 29% | |
| 11 | 5% | 6% | |
| 12 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 26% | 95% | Last Result |
| 6 | 44% | 69% | Median |
| 7 | 22% | 25% | |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 7% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 30% | 92% | |
| 6 | 51% | 62% | Median |
| 7 | 10% | 11% | Last Result |
| 8 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 4 | 17% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 5 | 57% | 82% | Median |
| 6 | 18% | 25% | |
| 7 | 5% | 7% | |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka Alenke Bratušek
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 62% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 38% | |
| 2 | 0% | 38% | |
| 3 | 11% | 38% | |
| 4 | 24% | 28% | |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska ljudska stranka
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 11% | |
| 2 | 0% | 11% | |
| 3 | 7% | 11% | |
| 4 | 4% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Stranka modernega centra
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 43 | 52 | 99.9% | 49–55 | 49–56 | 48–57 | 46–58 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca | 38 | 46 | 53% | 44–49 | 44–50 | 43–51 | 41–52 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra | 50 | 42 | 3% | 39–44 | 39–45 | 38–46 | 37–48 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 35 | 40 | 0.5% | 38–42 | 37–43 | 37–44 | 35–46 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra | 45 | 40 | 0.5% | 38–42 | 37–43 | 37–44 | 35–46 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra | 43 | 36 | 0% | 33–39 | 33–40 | 32–40 | 31–42 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije | 28 | 35 | 0% | 33–37 | 32–38 | 31–38 | 31–40 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 38 | 35 | 0% | 33–37 | 32–38 | 31–38 | 31–40 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati | 30 | 34 | 0% | 32–37 | 32–37 | 31–38 | 29–39 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra | 40 | 34 | 0% | 32–37 | 32–37 | 31–38 | 29–39 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati | 23 | 29 | 0% | 27–31 | 26–32 | 26–32 | 25–34 |
| Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra | 33 | 29 | 0% | 27–31 | 26–32 | 26–32 | 25–34 |
| Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra | 25 | 18 | 0% | 16–19 | 16–20 | 15–21 | 15–22 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.6% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 47 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 48 | 2% | 98% | |
| 49 | 8% | 96% | |
| 50 | 7% | 88% | |
| 51 | 24% | 81% | |
| 52 | 28% | 57% | Median |
| 53 | 7% | 29% | |
| 54 | 8% | 22% | |
| 55 | 8% | 14% | |
| 56 | 3% | 6% | |
| 57 | 2% | 3% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 42 | 1.2% | 98.8% | |
| 43 | 2% | 98% | |
| 44 | 15% | 95% | |
| 45 | 28% | 80% | |
| 46 | 16% | 53% | Median, Majority |
| 47 | 15% | 36% | |
| 48 | 9% | 21% | |
| 49 | 7% | 13% | |
| 50 | 3% | 6% | |
| 51 | 3% | 3% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 1.5% | 99.8% | |
| 38 | 2% | 98% | |
| 39 | 10% | 96% | |
| 40 | 13% | 86% | |
| 41 | 9% | 73% | Median |
| 42 | 27% | 64% | |
| 43 | 21% | 37% | |
| 44 | 7% | 16% | |
| 45 | 6% | 9% | |
| 46 | 1.4% | 3% | Majority |
| 47 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 48 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 36 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 37 | 3% | 98% | |
| 38 | 8% | 94% | |
| 39 | 19% | 86% | |
| 40 | 23% | 68% | |
| 41 | 11% | 45% | Median |
| 42 | 24% | 34% | |
| 43 | 4% | 9% | |
| 44 | 3% | 5% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 0.5% | Majority |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 37 | 3% | 98% | |
| 38 | 8% | 94% | |
| 39 | 19% | 86% | |
| 40 | 23% | 68% | |
| 41 | 11% | 45% | Median |
| 42 | 24% | 34% | |
| 43 | 4% | 9% | |
| 44 | 3% | 5% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 1.3% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.3% | 0.5% | Majority |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 33 | 11% | 97% | |
| 34 | 8% | 87% | |
| 35 | 9% | 79% | Median |
| 36 | 28% | 69% | |
| 37 | 17% | 41% | |
| 38 | 10% | 24% | |
| 39 | 8% | 13% | |
| 40 | 3% | 5% | |
| 41 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 32 | 5% | 97% | |
| 33 | 18% | 92% | |
| 34 | 21% | 74% | |
| 35 | 13% | 52% | Median |
| 36 | 28% | 39% | |
| 37 | 6% | 11% | |
| 38 | 3% | 5% | |
| 39 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 32 | 5% | 97% | |
| 33 | 18% | 92% | |
| 34 | 21% | 74% | |
| 35 | 13% | 52% | Median |
| 36 | 28% | 39% | |
| 37 | 6% | 11% | |
| 38 | 3% | 5% | Last Result |
| 39 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 30 | 1.3% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 31 | 2% | 98% | |
| 32 | 6% | 96% | |
| 33 | 22% | 90% | |
| 34 | 22% | 68% | |
| 35 | 17% | 46% | Median |
| 36 | 13% | 29% | |
| 37 | 11% | 16% | |
| 38 | 3% | 4% | |
| 39 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 30 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 31 | 2% | 98% | |
| 32 | 6% | 96% | |
| 33 | 22% | 90% | |
| 34 | 22% | 68% | |
| 35 | 17% | 46% | Median |
| 36 | 13% | 29% | |
| 37 | 11% | 16% | |
| 38 | 3% | 4% | |
| 39 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 4% | 98% | |
| 27 | 17% | 94% | |
| 28 | 21% | 77% | |
| 29 | 24% | 55% | Median |
| 30 | 12% | 32% | |
| 31 | 14% | 20% | |
| 32 | 4% | 6% | |
| 33 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 34 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 4% | 98% | |
| 27 | 17% | 94% | |
| 28 | 21% | 77% | |
| 29 | 24% | 55% | Median |
| 30 | 12% | 32% | |
| 31 | 14% | 20% | |
| 32 | 4% | 6% | |
| 33 | 0.9% | 1.4% | Last Result |
| 34 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 16 | 20% | 96% | |
| 17 | 17% | 76% | |
| 18 | 24% | 59% | Median |
| 19 | 27% | 34% | |
| 20 | 4% | 8% | |
| 21 | 2% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Parsifal
- Commissioner(s): Nova 24TV
- Fieldwork period: 6–8 May 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 776
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.97%