Opinion Poll by Parsifal for Nova 24TV, 6–8 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 24.9% 30.5% 28.5–32.7% 27.9–33.3% 27.4–33.9% 26.4–34.9%
Lista Marjana Šarca 12.6% 17.9% 16.2–19.8% 15.8–20.3% 15.4–20.8% 14.6–21.7%
Socialni demokrati 9.9% 12.8% 11.3–14.4% 10.9–14.9% 10.6–15.3% 9.9–16.1%
Levica 9.3% 9.5% 8.3–11.0% 8.0–11.4% 7.7–11.8% 7.1–12.6%
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 4.9% 6.4% 5.4–7.7% 5.2–8.1% 4.9–8.4% 4.5–9.1%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7.2% 6.2% 5.2–7.4% 4.9–7.8% 4.7–8.1% 4.3–8.7%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4.2% 5.8% 4.8–7.0% 4.6–7.4% 4.4–7.7% 3.9–8.3%
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5.1% 3.7% 3.0–4.8% 2.8–5.1% 2.6–5.3% 2.3–5.9%
Slovenska ljudska stranka 2.6% 2.8% 2.2–3.8% 2.0–4.0% 1.9–4.3% 1.6–4.8%
Stranka modernega centra 9.7% 0.3% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.0–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka 25 29 27–32 27–33 26–33 25–34
Lista Marjana Šarca 13 17 15–19 15–19 14–20 14–21
Socialni demokrati 10 12 10–13 10–14 10–14 9–15
Levica 9 9 8–10 7–11 7–11 7–12
Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 5 6 5–7 4–7 4–7 4–8
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 7 6 5–7 4–7 4–7 4–8
Slovenska nacionalna stranka 4 5 4–6 4–7 4–7 3–8
Stranka Alenke Bratušek 5 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Slovenska ljudska stranka 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4
Stranka modernega centra 10 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.8% Last Result
26 2% 98%  
27 16% 96%  
28 23% 80%  
29 19% 57% Median
30 17% 38%  
31 11% 21%  
32 3% 10%  
33 6% 7%  
34 1.1% 1.3%  
35 0.2% 0.3%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lista Marjana Šarca page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100% Last Result
14 3% 99.8%  
15 15% 97%  
16 17% 81%  
17 28% 64% Median
18 24% 37%  
19 8% 12%  
20 3% 4%  
21 1.2% 1.4%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 2% 100%  
10 17% 98% Last Result
11 18% 81%  
12 31% 63% Median
13 22% 32%  
14 8% 10%  
15 1.4% 2%  
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  

Levica

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.4% 100%  
7 7% 99.6%  
8 20% 92%  
9 42% 72% Last Result, Median
10 24% 29%  
11 5% 6%  
12 0.7% 0.8%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100%  
4 5% 99.9%  
5 26% 95% Last Result
6 44% 69% Median
7 22% 25%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.3% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 7% 99.8%  
5 30% 92%  
6 51% 62% Median
7 10% 11% Last Result
8 1.2% 1.3%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 0% 99.6%  
2 0% 99.6%  
3 0.1% 99.6%  
4 17% 99.4% Last Result
5 57% 82% Median
6 18% 25%  
7 5% 7%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Stranka Alenke Bratušek

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka Alenke Bratušek page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 62% 100% Median
1 0% 38%  
2 0% 38%  
3 11% 38%  
4 24% 28%  
5 3% 3% Last Result
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Slovenska ljudska stranka

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 11%  
2 0% 11%  
3 7% 11%  
4 4% 4%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Stranka modernega centra

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka modernega centra page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 43 52 99.9% 49–55 49–56 48–57 46–58
Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca 38 46 53% 44–49 44–50 43–51 41–52
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 50 42 3% 39–44 39–45 38–46 37–48
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 35 40 0.5% 38–42 37–43 37–44 35–46
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 45 40 0.5% 38–42 37–43 37–44 35–46
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra 43 36 0% 33–39 33–40 32–40 31–42
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 28 35 0% 33–37 32–38 31–38 31–40
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 38 35 0% 33–37 32–38 31–38 31–40
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati 30 34 0% 32–37 32–37 31–38 29–39
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 40 34 0% 32–37 32–37 31–38 29–39
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati 23 29 0% 27–31 26–32 26–32 25–34
Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra 33 29 0% 27–31 26–32 26–32 25–34
Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra 25 18 0% 16–19 16–20 15–21 15–22

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100% Last Result
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.6% 99.9% Majority
47 1.1% 99.3%  
48 2% 98%  
49 8% 96%  
50 7% 88%  
51 24% 81%  
52 28% 57% Median
53 7% 29%  
54 8% 22%  
55 8% 14%  
56 3% 6%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.3% 0.6%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka – Lista Marjana Šarca

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.9% 99.8%  
42 1.2% 98.8%  
43 2% 98%  
44 15% 95%  
45 28% 80%  
46 16% 53% Median, Majority
47 15% 36%  
48 9% 21%  
49 7% 13%  
50 3% 6%  
51 3% 3%  
52 0.3% 0.6%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 1.5% 99.8%  
38 2% 98%  
39 10% 96%  
40 13% 86%  
41 9% 73% Median
42 27% 64%  
43 21% 37%  
44 7% 16%  
45 6% 9%  
46 1.4% 3% Majority
47 0.6% 1.4%  
48 0.7% 0.8%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0% Last Result

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.7% 99.9% Last Result
36 2% 99.3%  
37 3% 98%  
38 8% 94%  
39 19% 86%  
40 23% 68%  
41 11% 45% Median
42 24% 34%  
43 4% 9%  
44 3% 5%  
45 0.8% 1.3%  
46 0.3% 0.5% Majority
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.7% 99.9%  
36 2% 99.3%  
37 3% 98%  
38 8% 94%  
39 19% 86%  
40 23% 68%  
41 11% 45% Median
42 24% 34%  
43 4% 9%  
44 3% 5%  
45 0.8% 1.3% Last Result
46 0.3% 0.5% Majority
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka Alenke Bratušek – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.5% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.3%  
33 11% 97%  
34 8% 87%  
35 9% 79% Median
36 28% 69%  
37 17% 41%  
38 10% 24%  
39 8% 13%  
40 3% 5%  
41 1.2% 2%  
42 0.8% 0.9%  
43 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
44 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0.2% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.8%  
31 3% 99.6%  
32 5% 97%  
33 18% 92%  
34 21% 74%  
35 13% 52% Median
36 28% 39%  
37 6% 11%  
38 3% 5%  
39 1.5% 2%  
40 0.4% 0.7%  
41 0.3% 0.3%  
42 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.8%  
31 3% 99.6%  
32 5% 97%  
33 18% 92%  
34 21% 74%  
35 13% 52% Median
36 28% 39%  
37 6% 11%  
38 3% 5% Last Result
39 1.5% 2%  
40 0.4% 0.7%  
41 0.3% 0.3%  
42 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.7% 100%  
30 1.3% 99.3% Last Result
31 2% 98%  
32 6% 96%  
33 22% 90%  
34 22% 68%  
35 17% 46% Median
36 13% 29%  
37 11% 16%  
38 3% 4%  
39 0.7% 1.2%  
40 0.3% 0.5%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.7% 100%  
30 1.3% 99.3%  
31 2% 98%  
32 6% 96%  
33 22% 90%  
34 22% 68%  
35 17% 46% Median
36 13% 29%  
37 11% 16%  
38 3% 4%  
39 0.7% 1.2%  
40 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100% Last Result
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.8%  
26 4% 98%  
27 17% 94%  
28 21% 77%  
29 24% 55% Median
30 12% 32%  
31 14% 20%  
32 4% 6%  
33 0.9% 1.4%  
34 0.4% 0.6%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Lista Marjana Šarca – Socialni demokrati – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.8%  
26 4% 98%  
27 17% 94%  
28 21% 77%  
29 24% 55% Median
30 12% 32%  
31 14% 20%  
32 4% 6%  
33 0.9% 1.4% Last Result
34 0.4% 0.6%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati – Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – Stranka modernega centra

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.2% 99.9%  
15 4% 99.7%  
16 20% 96%  
17 17% 76%  
18 24% 59% Median
19 27% 34%  
20 4% 8%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.7% 0.9%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations